Bob Homans July 13

20220713

Ukraine – 7/13 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
July 13, 2022

In the interest of letting you all know that neither me nor my Kyiv Collaborator haven’t succumbed to Covid or Monkey Pox, we won’t be sending out regular Ukraine sitreps either today (Wednesday) or tomorrow (Thursday).   We’ll be back on Friday.

Today, my Kyiv Collaborator tells me that he is addressing the needs of a paying customer.   I am doing the same today as well as tomorrow and, in addition, tomorrow afternoon I am going to be interviewed about Ukraine by the Harvard Advanced Leadership Initiative.   I’m going to be talking about leadership lessons from Ukraine, based on my observations since the start of the Revolution of Dignity in 2013.  I need to prepare.   On Friday, I’ll share the recording, but only if I conclude that I did a better job with Harvard than Victoria Spartz did, in her recent interview with Ukrainska Pravda.

In the interim, here are some recent items that I have found interesting:

 Latest Denys -

Some comments on Denys’ report:

·       Ukrainian Army Training in Great Britain – Denys mentions that there are plans to train 100,000 Ukrainian enlistees in Great Britain.  The original report that I saw was 10,000.   The reason why Great Britain is being used for this purpose is likely because Russian missile strikes have heavily damaged Ukraine’s training base in Yavoriv, near Lv’iv.   Also, after the latest Russian invasion, American, British and Canadian trainers had to withdraw from Ukraine.

·       Grain Carriers – Ukraine’s successful re-taking of Snake Island has resulted in the re-opening of Ukraine’s Danube River ports for grain shipments.   These ports aren’t as large as Odesa and other ports on the Black Sea, but they haven’t sustained any damage, which has been the case for both Odesa and Mykolaiv, and they can carry more grain than is possible using rail shipments into Poland or Romania.   I assume that Moldova is allowing grain shipments bound for the Danube ports to cross their territory by rail, as the one rail connection within Ukraine to the Danube ports relies on a bridge that crosses the mouth of the Dniester River near Zatoka.   It has been damaged several times by Russian bombardment.

·       Fire Detection Map – Shows a substantial reduction in Russian artillery strikes over the last couple of days, especially around Kharkiv.   This is likely a result of Ukraine’s focus on destroying Russian ammunition dumps using their HIMERS missiles.   The map also shows Ukraine’s increased ability to hit Russian targets far inside temporarily Russian controlled territory.

·       Kerch Bridge – I expect Ukraine will try to knock out the Kerch Bridge, connecting Crimea to Russia proper.   If Ukraine is successful it would result in a substantial reduction of Russia’s ability to re-supply its forces around Kherson.   Instead of going through Crimea, Russia would have to go overland, through temporarily occupied territory, leaving Russian logistics open to attacks from both Ukrainian long-range artillery and partisans.

·       Women in the military – Denys commented on the requirement that women now have to sign up for the draft.   It is worth mentioning that thousands of women are already participating in the war effort, indirectly by producing camouflage clothing, or directly as members of territorial defense units or volunteers such as my friend the sniper.   My friend the sniper has now assumed an additional role – writing code to be used in some of the commercial drones now being used at the Front.   As I understand it, the code she is responsible for writing, will allow the drones to directly communicate targeting information to the new 155mm howitzers, as well as launching munitions from the drones.   Multitasking, Ukraine style.

A couple of you have asked about giving money to my sniper friend and her female comrades.  New recipients may also be interested to contribute.    It’s very easy, but you need a PayPal account.  Go to PayPal and type in the following using the search feature - @vwKyiv or williams.vivica@gmail.com.   Vivica is a former Fulbright Scholar who studied in Kyiv and knows the members of the Team.    Once her coordinates show up on PayPal, you can send money to her via a credit card, and she will make sure that it gets to the right place.  As far as I can tell, so far recipients of our emails have given over $12,000.00 to my sniper friend and her comrades.

Of possible interest is a new movie, called “Sniper – the White Raven.”  It’s about Ukrainian snipers, and it’s set in 2014, after Russia’s invasion of Crimes.  My friend tells me that some of those in the movie are fellow sniper school classmates.   Here is the trailer -

You can buy or rent the full movie on YouTube.

A couple of other items of interest:

S-400 Anti-Aircraft Missile System – Apparently one of Russia’s top of the line S-400 missile system has been knocked out by a Ukrainian strike using HIMARS.   Turkey has an S-400.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey has allowed U.S. experts to inspect their S-400, and the information gained has either been included in the HIMARS’s guidance system or directly given to the Ukrainians.

“The Man Who Has Putin’s Ear – And May Want his Job – This is an Op-Ed in the Washington Post about Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s National Security Adviser.  The author is Catherine Belton, author of a book called “Putin’s People,” about the people, including Patrushev, who make up Putin’s inner circle.  Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich sued both Belton and her British publisher for libel.  The case has been settled, but the fact remains that Belton is likely the pre-eminent authority on those who make up Russia’s power structure.