Ukraine – 7/1/2023 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
July 1, 2023
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News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” and “The Latest Denys” have different accounts on what happened after a Russian Iskander missile hit the approach to the Antonivsky Bridge on the Left Bank of the Dnieper River, that Ukrainian troops have been using as a shelter. “Reporting From Ukraine” said that Ukrainians survived the missile strike by hiding in an underground bunker. “The Latest Denys” reported that it was unclear if the Ukrainians survived. It appears that “Reporting From Ukraine” was correct.
The Dnieper River between Kherson City and its mouth, where it empties into the Black Sea, reminds me a bit of the San Francisco Bay Delta, where the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers merge before emptying into San Francisco Bay. Althogh I am more familiar with the San Francisco Bay Delta, I have been to both places. Both consist of hundreds of low-lying islands where, without local knowledge, it’s very easy to get lost in a network of triburaries and canals.
The fighting around the Antonivsky Bridge is taking place on an island, where Ukraine has established a foothold. The immediate objective of the Ukrainians is to clear Russians off the island, allowing them to potentially enter the town of Oleshkiy, the first town located on the mainland, east of Kherson City.
Taking Oleshkiy would force the Russians back, and partly relieve Khearson City from the effects of Russian shelling. It would also help Ukraine to establish a pontoon bridge across the Dnieper, allowing Ukraine to move heavy equipment across the river, including but not limited to tanks.
Ukraine seems to be winning the Battle of the Dnieper Delta. They have the advantage of local knowledge, and they have several armed, high-speed, river boats that I believe were supplied by the U.S. Prior segments, of “Reporting From Ukraine,” including today’s, have included video clips showing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s riverine force.
“How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally”/Time Magazine
There are interesting links to remarks by Oleg Deripaska, one of Russia’s biggest and most influential oligarchs, who predicted in a Bloomberg article that Russia will run out of money in 2024. Reading the article reminded me of a joke told by Edward Hamilton, a former Deputy Mayor of New York City who taught a course in public financial management when I was a student at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Hamilton described a man driving a panel truck across Manhattan, on one of the frequently crowded numbered streets that run east to west. At every intersection the driver got out of the panel truck, and he banged on the side of the truck with a 2x4. The curiosity of the man following the truck finally got the better of him. He got out of his car, approached the driver of the panel truck, and he asked him why he was compelled to get out of his panel truck at every intersection and hit the side of his truck with a 2x4. The panel truck driver answered, in his finest New York City accent, “Look pal. I got a 2-ton truck here carrying a cargo of 3 tons of canaries. If I don’t keep one ton flying around in there, I lose my truck.” This appears to be an increasingly apt description of Russia’s economy under Putin.
Elvira Nabiullina the brilliant Governor of Russia’s Central Bank has, more than anyone, been responsible for keeping the Russian economy afloat, but even she may be running out of options.
7/1/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon June 29 to 12:00 noon June 30, 2023
Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Snake Island. On June 30, 2022, after 126 days of occupation and a fantastic operation to liberate the island, the remnants of the occupiers left it.
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Saturday July 1
12:07 am: Pope Francis said that the war in Ukraine does not seem to have an end. The pontiff came to this conclusion after his peace envoy concluded three-day negotiations in Moscow, writes Reuters.
● "The tragic reality of this war, which seems to have no end, requires a creative effort from all to imagine and pave the way for peace," Francis told a religious delegation from the Patriarch of Constantinople.
12:29 am: In Estonia, the fine has been increased 15 times for schools with teachers who do not speak the state language and only use Russian.
● Previously, the amount of the fine was €640, and from August 1, it will increase to €10,000.
● In addition, representatives of the Language Department will now be able to go and check what is happening in the lessons. Before that, they assessed teachers' level of Estonian language only on the basis of interviews.
● According to the Language Department, there are about 2,500 teachers in Estonia who do not have sufficient knowledge of the Estonian language.
Friday June 30
2:25 pm: French President Emmanuel Macron has left the EU summit in Brussels and canceled his press conference, now heading to a cabinet meeting on the country's unrest, - AFP.
● According to Le Figaro, during the riots, more than 600 protesters were detained, and 250 security forces were also injured.
3:05 pm: US may announce supply of cluster munitions to Kyiv in early July, NBC
● Sources say the White House is discussing the possibility of supplying such munitions, and Washington is now closer to making a decision than at any time since the beginning of the war.
3:55 pm: "Nova Poshta" company opened the first Nova Post branch in Germany - in Berlin.
● During the year, Nova Poshta plans to open more branches in Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Munich and Cologne.
5:09 pm: EU leaders have backed a "windfall tax" that would allow Ukraine to transfer profits from frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank.
● This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to sources familiar with the course of negotiations at the summit in Brussels.
● According to the agency, more than €200 billion of frozen assets of the Central Bank will bring income of about €3 billion.
5:43 pm: The Danish government is ready to provide Ukraine with a military aid package worth more than 170 million euros.
● This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Denmark.
● It is noted that the aid package includes anti-aircraft missiles, demining machines and funds for the purchase of artillery ammunition.
5:52 pm: At the Chisinau airport, one of the passengers started shooting.
● This was reported by NewsMaker with reference to the statement of the local police.
● Airport personnel and passengers were evacuated from the building.
6:22 pm: A foreigner who was banned from entering Moldova used a firearm at the Chisinau airport, the country's Ministry of Internal Affairs reports.
● According to the ministry, 2 victims are currently known.
● "The FULGER special purpose police brigade enters the scene of the incident," the message reads.
● The person who shot at the Chisinau airport was wounded by special forces during the detention, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Moldova.
7:05 pm: A foreigner who opened fire shot dead a border policeman and an airport security officer.
● This was reported by NewsMaker with reference to the statement of the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu.
● She noted that state institutions have been put on high alert, the police and law enforcement agencies have been mobilized throughout the country.
9:11 pm: Poland is ready to participate in the NATO Nuclear Sharing program in connection with Russian intentions to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.
● This was stated by the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, at the press conference following the meeting of the Council of Europe.
● Nuclear Sharing is a NATO program that is part of nuclear deterrence. The alliance provides nuclear warheads to member states that do not possess nuclear weapons of their own.
NATIONAL
Saturday July 1
12:16 am: Repulsed missile danger. This was reported in the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
12:54 am: On the territory of the Khortytsia National Reserve, on an island in the Dnieper River within the Zaporizhia City Limits, they found the remains of an ancient boat made of a solid oak trunk, almost 7 m long. The age of the find may reach 500 years.
● "We need to carry out a radio carbon analysis and only then we will be able to get closer to understanding who made it, who used it and for what purposes. There are symbols on it, they need to be investigated as well," - say the reserve's employees.
7:09 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Against the background of successful combat operations of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and due to significant losses of Russians in manpower, cases of desertion in units of Russian troops are increasing, which are increasingly leaving combat positions arbitrarily.
● In particular, about 50 ethnic Dagestani servicemen from the Caspian flotilla, in the area of the village of Dorozhnyanka, Zaporizhzhia region, refused to participate in hostilities. The weapons in the unit were disabled by the Russian responders.
● the Russians continue to use the civilian population as "human shields.
● Thus, in the settlement of Topolivka, Kherson region, the Russian military command settles its servicemen in private houses inhabited by civilians.
● Over the past day, the air force of the defense forces carried out 12 strikes on areas where Russian personnel are concentrated and 1 on the anti-aircraft missile complex of the Russian Federation
● During the past day, units of missile troops and artillery hit 1 control post, 6 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition depots, 24 artillery means on firing positions and a Reb station.
8:03 am: The advance of the Armed Forces was recorded on the flanks in the Bakhmut area and on the administrative border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, - ISW.
8:56 am: The air alert in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions is related to the activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern and southeastern direction, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
9:17 am: the Russians can again commit a terrorist attack on Ukrainian territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said in an interview with El Mundo.
● "This is part of their strategy: to freeze the conflict. If we manage to hand over control of the station to the IAEA, they will detonate the station remotely because they need to buy time to recruit and produce more weapons and then try to wipe us out again. I also want to remind you that our workers are being kidnapped, and their children are being taken to Russia," the president said.
● "If the fields are mined, we cannot send our soldiers to die."
9:55 am: Volodymyr Zelenskyi dismissed four heads of Kyiv district administrations:
● Serhiy Kovalenko from the post of head of the Podilsk District Administration
● Pavla Babia from the post of head of the Dnipro district administration
● Serhiy Pavlovsky from the post of head of the Svyatoshyn district administration
● Dmytro Ratnikov from the position of head of the Desnyan district administration
● The relevant orders were published on the website of the Office of the President.
10:12 am: Head of the United Press Center of the Southern Defense Forces Nataliya Gumenyuk said that the Russians have not yet restored their defense lines on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
● "They cannot return to their positions everywhere. The geography of mining that they knew has changed. Currently, the water has scattered mines in completely different positions. They are forced to first clear the mines and then return," Humenyuk said.
10:15 am: Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez arrived in Kyiv
● "I convey all European solidarity to your government and parliament. We will support the Ukrainian people until peace returns to Europe," Pedro Sanchez tweeted.
11:36 am: From July 1, an electronic prescription will be required to purchase medications under the "Affordable Medicines" program, - press service of the Ministry of Health.
● In addition, the patient can ask the doctor to print a certificate with information about the prescription.
● "Affordable medicines" is a government program that ensures full or partial payment of the cost of some medicines from budget funds," the department notes.
Friday June 30
12:57 pm: The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said in an interview with The Washington Post that he is annoyed by external comments that the counteroffensive is happening more slowly than expected.
● "This is not a show. This is not a show that is watched by the whole world, on which bets are made or something like that. Every day, every meter is given blood," he said.
● According to Zaluzhny, in order for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to advance faster, the Ukrainians need more of each type of weapon and air superiority - F-16 fighter jets. Without the full support of the army, these plans are not feasible at all, but "they are being implemented."
● "We are in contact with the head of the US General Staff, Mark Milley, 24 hours a day. I can call and say, 'If I don't get 100,000 rounds a week, 1,000 people are going to die. Get in there.'"
● "I have many fears, and "Wagner" on the northern borders is among them", - Zaluzhny about "Wagner" in Belarus.
● "And they are not the only ones. If we start talking about all of them now, my head will spin. Our task is to prepare for the worst and most likely scenario," he said.
● "There are twice as many Western planes patrolling our borders as there are Russian fighter jets raiding our positions. Why don't we take at least a third from there and move it here?" - said Zaluzhny in an interview with The Washington Post.
● Valery Zaluzhnyi: "No one says that we should get 120 planes tomorrow. I don't need that much - a limited amount is enough.
● But they are needed, there is no other way. The enemy is using a different generation of aviation — it's as if we now went on the offensive with bows and arrows."
2:46 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the Stavka.
● "Reports of commanders Zaluzhnyi, Syrskyi, Tarnavskyi, Nayev. The situation on the battlefield, moving forward. Strengthening our operations with additional artillery systems and shells.
● A separate report of the GUR, SZR, SBU and DPSU on the situation in Belarus. We keep it under constant control.
● The decision of the Headquarters - Chief Commander Zaluzhny and the commander of "Pivnochi" Naev - to implement a set of measures to strengthen this direction," Zelenskyi said.
4:20 pm: People's Deputy Alekseev responded to today's searches: the indictment does not mention bribery, it is payment for almost two years of work by lawyers.
● "This is a case that the company Oleksiy Borschakov and partners has been conducting for more than 2 years. A drug addict who is awaiting extradition to Germany (a German citizen, by the way) for drug trafficking. The FBI and SBU used his weak position in exchange for asylum in Ukraine from criminal persecution in Germany.
● I would like to emphasize that the funds were received within the framework of the contract with the legal company. There is no mention of a bribe even in the indictment. Instead, they are trying to charge me with fraud," Alekseev said.
5:33 pm: The Cabinet of Ministers appointed Elena Duma as the head of the National Agency for Identification, Search and Management of Assets Obtained from Corruption and Other Crimes (ARMA).
● This is reported in the Telegram channel of the Cabinet of Ministers.
● We will remind that the ambassadors of the G7 countries expressed reservations about the procedure by which the Duma was recognized as the winner of the competition for the head of ARMA.
6:00 pm: The Armed Forces received 130 cars for the front thanks to the Favbet Foundation
● Since the beginning of the great war, the Defense Forces of the country have received 130 SUVs, minibuses and other vehicles with the assistance of the Favbet Foundation.
7:25 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with American businessman, founder and executive director of Wasatch Group Dell Loy Hansen.
● "Wasatch Group, in partnership with the charity organization To Ukraine With Love, plans to build 600 fully furnished modular homes for people whose homes were destroyed by the war in 2023-2024 in Ukraine, in the Kyiv region," the president wrote.
7:41 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 6:00 p.m. on June 30:
● "Tonight, the Russian occupiers launched another missile and air strike on the territory of Ukraine, using 4 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the S-300 air defense system and 13 Iranian strike UAVs "Shahed-136/131" against military and infrastructure facilities in the Zaporizhzhia region.
● The forces and means of the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 10 out of 13 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-136/131" type.
● "During the day, the enemy launched 8 missile and 34 air strikes, carried out 40 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded civilians, more than 20 civilian residential buildings and an educational complex have been damaged."
● "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Marin directions, heavy fighting continues.
● During the day, 18 combat clashes took place."
● "In the village of Serhiyivka, Kherson region, after conducting another rotation of positions, from June 15 to the present time, in one of the divisions of the 5th Army of the Eastern Military District, up to 10 enemy servicemen were blown up on mines, which were laid by the previous rotation."
● "In the village of Novopskov, Luhansk region, Russian servicemen loaded furniture from the maternity hospital onto military vehicles and took it to an unknown destination, while the invaders are converting the territory of the maternity hospital into a field hospital."
● "During the day, the aviation of the defense forces made 10 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel and 1 - on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile complex.
● During the day, units of missile troops and artillery struck 6 areas of concentration of enemy manpower, weapons, and military equipment, 3 ammunition depots, 24 artillery pieces in firing positions and the occupiers' EW station.
10:07 pm: Currently, there is no immediate threat of Russian offensive actions in the north of Ukraine.
● This was announced by the commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Naev.
● "However, in the event of an increase in the level of threats, the increase of forces and means, as well as other practical measures to increase the defensive capabilities of the (Northern - ed.) group, are foreseen," Nayev said.
10:20 pm: After the war, Ukraine should become the center of production of modern weapons in Europe, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
● "We are planning joint projects with the world's largest defense companies.
● This will necessarily include localization in the production of equipment and weapons," Shmyhal said.
10:40 pm: "Ukrposhta" put into circulation a new postage stamp - "GUR Ministry of Defense of Ukraine".
● Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, and Ihor Smilyanskyi, the general director of Ukrposhta, took part in the event of the special redemption of the commemorative postage stamp, which is dedicated to the military intelligence of Ukraine.
● "The face value of one stamp is 30 hryvnias, every 7 of which will go to charity. The collected funds will be used to purchase a Ukrainian-made naval combat drone," the message says.
11:12 pm: Ukraine wants to show results on the battlefield before the July 11 NATO summit. This was stated by Volodymyr Zelenskyi during an interview with foreign journalists in Kyiv.
● During the conversation, the president said that his army's plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia have slowed down in recent months. "The torrential rains last a long time, and it slows down some processes," he commented.
11:26 pm: The head of the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania in Kyiv presented a three-year plan to support the Armed Forces
● According to Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anushauskas, the three main goals of the plan are:
● make every effort to ensure continuous provision of military support to the Ukrainian army;
● ensure the rehabilitation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers;
● to continue consultations on defense reforms initiated before the war to bring Ukraine closer to NATO membership.
11:39 pm: Kharkiv, Donetsk regions - missile danger. This was reported in the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
SUMY
Friday June 30
12:15 pm Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, the enemy carried out 3 attacks on Seredino-Budska and Shalyginska communities. 4 explosions were recorded
● Previously - without victims among the civilian population and destruction of civil infrastructure.
KHARKIV
Friday June 30
1:55 p.m.: The SBU neutralized the FSB spy network that was directing Russian Tornadoes and Hurricanes to Kharkiv.
● The hostile group included three local residents who were collecting intelligence on the bases and movements of the Defense Forces in the region.
● Currently, each of them has been remanded in custody without bail. The perpetrators face life imprisonment.
DONETSK
Saturday July 1
10:26 am: Donetsk region - missile danger! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11:13 am Donetsk RMA: The day before, the Russians fired a cruise missile at a school in Serhiyivka — 2 people were killed, 6 were injured. 1 more person was injured as a result of the shelling of Shevchenko. A house was damaged in Kramatorsk.
● Gostre, Chasovoyarska hromad, Shcherbynivka, Rozdolivka, Mykolaivka, Novodmytrivka, Rai Oleksandrivka, Siversk and Kolodyazi were also under fire.
● In just one day, the Russians killed 3 residents of Donetsk region and wounded another 10.
11:46 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Slovyansk, Donetsk region.
Friday June 30
4:45 pm: In the Pokrovsky district of the Donetsk region, a school was hit, a 56-year-old primary school teacher and a 44-year-old chief accountant were killed, the regional prosecutor's office reports.
● Six other employees, including four men aged 54 to 69 and two women aged 24 and 34, were injured.
● "Part of the school building was destroyed, classrooms, offices and other premises were broken, furniture and school equipment were broken," the report says.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday July 1
10:35 am Zaporizhia RMA: 26 residential and commercial objects were damaged in the Zaporizhia region over the past day.
● the Russians carried out 54 shellings on 18 settlements of Zaporizhzhya, Pologiv and Vasyliv districts. No casualties.
June 30
12:05 pm: The Armed Forces confirmed the attack on the headquarters and warehouse of the Russian Federation in Berdyansk.
● Ukrainian fighters destroyed the headquarters of the Russians and a warehouse of fuel and lubricants.
12:40 pm: How to prepare for a possible accident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, recommendations from the Ministry of Health.
● The information applies only to residents of the 50-kilometer zone around the ZNPP.
o In the first-aid kit you need to have:
o Potassium iodide: reduces the negative effect of radioactive iodine on the thyroid gland;
o Aluminum antacid sorbents: to accelerate neutralization, binding and removal of radionuclides from the body;
o Sodium alginate: creates a protective barrier on the surface of the liquid contents of the stomach and prevents the absorption of dangerous substances by the body;
o A mask is a means of physical protection to reduce the entry of dangerous substances into the body.
DNIPRO
Saturday July 1
8:52 am Dnipro RMA: The Marganets community in Nikopol region came under fire this night.
● Half a dozen shells from heavy artillery flew there. There are no dead or injured. Rescuers are examining the area.
KHERSON
Saturday July 1
10:51 am: The Armed Forces are trying to gain a foothold on the eastern bank of the Kherson region, - British intelligence
● "Approximately from June 23, 2023, Ukrainian forces almost certainly resumed the transfer of personnel to the eastern bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, near the destroyed Antoniv bridge," the intelligence agency writes.
● Starting from June 27, the fighting on the eastern bank intensified. Russia attracts paratroopers.
Friday June 30
12:25 pm Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the enemy launched 72 attacks, firing 434 shells from mortars, artillery, tanks, Grads and UAVs. The enemy fired 8 shells at the city of Kherson.
● the Russian military aimed at the residential quarters of populated areas; point of issue of humanitarian aid, medical and educational institution in Kherson.
● As a result of Russian aggression, 3 people died, 4 were injured.
12:47 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kherson region.
9:50 pm: the Russian army shelled a residential building in Antonivka, a family with a child was injured.
● Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of Kherson OVA, reports this.
● "A 6-year-old boy was diagnosed with a leg injury of medium severity. Also, a 79-year-old man and a 42-year-old woman were injured due to an enemy strike," wrote Prokudin.
MYKOLAIV
Saturday July 1
10:45 am Social Networks: An explosion rang out in Mykolaiv.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics