Bob Homans, January 8
20230109
Ukraine – 1/8 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
January 8, 2023
Orthodox Christmas in Ukraine
Last Sunday, Orthodox Christmas, the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) held a Christmas Service in the Pechersk Lavra. It was the first time a service has been held by OCU since 1688. This is a very significant event, in the eradication of russian influence in Ukraine.
From Google - The word "Pechersk" is derived from the network of caves ("pechery"), where the imperishable tombs of hermit saints were preserved. The Greek word "lavra" means "street, village". The word is used for big and populous monasteries.
The Pechersk Lavra, overlooking the Dnieper River in Kyiv, is 980 years old. In 1688 it was turned over to what is now referred to as the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP). The Pechersk Lavra Complex is State property, governed by 2 separate leases with UOC-MP as lessee, the Upper Lavra consisting of the Cathedral of Assumption, where last Sunday’s service was held, the church of the monastery, and other chapels and buildings, and the Lower Lavra, consisting of the monastery and the cave complex, where many Eastern Orthodox patriarchs are interred going back hundreds of years, including the Founder of Kyiv Mohilya Academy that in 2015 celebrated 400 years since its Founding.
The lease covering the Upper Lavra expired last January 1st, and the UOC-MP was forced to vacate. The lease covering the Lower Lavra has not expiration date. The Government of Ukraine is considering alternatives on how to legally terminate this lease.
Meanwhile, many Orthodox believers in Ukraine are shifting their allegiance from UOC-MP to OCU, and they have been doing so since 2014. Along with a decline in the use of Russian, after English Russian is now the second foreign language taught in Ukrainian schools, the relative decline in membership in UOC-MP is accelerating the decline of russian influence in Ukrainian society.
Military conflict is not only place where russia is fighting a losing battle in Ukraine.
News From the Battlefield
In a talk a few weeks ago that I attended, Frederick Kagan emphasized the critical importance of Ukraine’s incorporation of women into its armed forces, including as volunteers, members of territorial defense and the regular army, something that russia has, so far, chosen not to do. This is a segment, from a recent edition of ABC Nightly News in the US, about a Ukrainian female sniper (not my friend whom I’ve mentioned in previous emails). Now that she has revealed herself to the russians and everyone else, I’d question her desire to go back to the front, or the desire by others to want to have her serve with them in combat.
Both “Reporting From Ukraine” and the Latest Denys continue to focus their reporting on Soledar. They continue to have somewhat different views on the situation in and around Soledar.
The forces attacking Soledar, just north of Bakhmut, consist largely of mercenaries from the Wagner Grroup headed by “Putin’s Chef,” Evgeniy Pregozhin. Soledar has an extensive network of salt and gypsum mines. Some are wondering if Pregozhin’s interest in taking Soledar derives from his possible interest in expropriating the salt and gypsum mines.
1/8 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon January 7 to 12:00 noon January 8, 2022
Everyone is influenced by popular culture to a greater or lesser extent. For example, I am copying Ukrainian popular culture by equating russia with Mordor from Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” and this cultural shorthand is understood without explanation by readers from around the world.
Cultural icons are simplifications of complex states. It is notable that the most prominent russian cultural icons which explains how russians view current events is fascism and Nazism. In the west, or for those without firsthand exposure to Russia, it may seem that this icon is purely state propaganda. The reason is that since the second world war the Soviet Communist/russian state message that equates Ukraine, Ukrainians with fascism and Nazism was constantly reiterated. During the Soviet period this message was fostered and managed by the state. However, after the breakup of the Soviet Union this message became a mainstay of russian science fiction, fantasy, and conspiracy theory publications.
Russians are blind to the invasion and war because their cultural icons are their reality. A rambling article that describes development of Ukraine oriented pre-invasion popular russian cultural icons in the url below.
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
January 8
08:32: The Ukrainian military will begin training in handling the Bradley BMP this month, said U.S. Department of Defense spokeswoman Laura Cooper.
· "This new training program we're starting is about one battalion at a time. So, about 500 soldiers in a month," Cooper said.
00:40 BILD: Greece is ready to wait with the delivery of German BMP Marder, Ukraine is a priority.
· In early September, Athens and Berlin agreed on a "circular exchange" scheme, according to which the Greek side was to transfer 40 Soviet BMP-1s to Kyiv in exchange for the same number of Marder BMP.
· And recently, Germany announced a decision to supply the same number of combat vehicles to Ukraine by the end of March.
· Athens said it was ready to wait for the supply of German IFVs if Berlin plans to send them to Kiev first.
January 7
21:24: In 2022, food prices in the world reached record levels, Reuters reported, citing data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
· According to the organization, the food price index was 143.7 points in 2022. This is 14.3% more than in 2021, and is the highest figure since the beginning of statistics in 1990.
20:23: Turkey hopes for an extension of the "ceasefire regime along the entire line of hostilities of the parties."
· This was stated by the official representative of Turkish President Erdogan Ibrahim Kalin.
· "In the coming days, we will continue to take steps towards a ceasefire in the areas adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia NPP," Kalyn added.
19:43: The new meeting of the UN Security Council within the framework of the program "Support to Peace and Security in Ukraine" will be held on Friday, January 13, according to the press service of the UN Security Council.
18:00 British government: In March, justice ministers from a number of countries will meet in London to help investigate war crimes in Ukraine.
· The British government's website notes that the meeting will aim to increase global financial and practical support for the ICC (International Criminal Court).
17:19: Finland is preparing 12 aid packages for Ukraine, Finnish Defense Minister Mikko Savola said.
· "Decisions will be made in the coming weeks," Savola wrote on Twitter.
16:01: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
· The initiator himself, a deputy from Norway, Christian Tibring-Gyedde, wrote about this on Facebook.
· "Stoltenberg deserves an award for exemplary work as secretary general," the statement said.
15:45: Europe must meet Ukraine's military assistance.
· This was stated by the Head of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola at the closed congress of the parliamentary group of the Christian Democratic Union in Bavaria.
13:35 Pentagon: The United States will convince its allies of the need to build up military assistance to Kyiv.
· "Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterated his commitment to encouraging allies and partners to additionally provide air defense systems, combat vehicles, and other critical capabilities to support Ukraine."
13:13: Russia does not abide by the Christmas truce it unilaterally, Pentagon spokeswoman Laura Cooper said during a briefing.
· "As for Putin's statement about the ceasefire, I can tell you that today in Ukraine we are witnessing hostilities, even if we are formally talking about a "window" of ceasefire," she said.
13:03 La Repubblica: U.S. President's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, in a conversation with Italian Prime Minister's diplomatic adviser Francesco Talo, called on Rome to hand over the SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine as soon as possible.
12:32: The next meeting in the format "Ramstein" will be held on January 20, — press service of the Ministry of Defense of Germany.
NATIONAL
January 8
11:18 Ukrenergo: As of 11:00 am on December 8, persistent frosty weather contributes to an increase in the level of electricity consumption, and, accordingly, the level of its shortage in the power system.
· To ensure the balance of production and consumption, consumption limits have been brought to the regions, which are valid from 09:00 to 24:00. Exceeding the limits leads to the application of emergency restrictions. At night, restrictions as of today do not apply.
10:40: Due to deteriorating weather conditions, DTEK announced electricity consumption limits not only during the day but also at night.
· According to DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk, consumption limits are distributed in proportion to electricity consumption in each region. Electricity companies are introducing blackout schedules within these limits. There are cases when electricity restrictions do not apply at night.
10:50 a.m.: British intelligence: Russia prepares for a two-way offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
· The way Russia has worked to improve defence suggests that the command is likely concerned about the possibility of major Ukrainian offensives in one of two directions: either in the north of the Luhansk region or in Zaporizhia.
· A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhia will seriously undermine the viability of the Russian "land bridge" connecting the Rostov region of Russia and Crimea; Ukrainian success in Luhansk will undermine the military goal of the "liberation" of the Donbas declared by Russia,
· Deciding which of these threats to counter in the first place is perhaps one of the main dilemmas for Russian operational planners.
07:25 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 06:00 January 8:
· "To replenish losses and maintain the offensive, the enemy moves personnel, weapons and military equipment and ammunition to the areas of hostilities.
· During the past day, the enemy inflicted 9 missile, 3 air strikes and carried out 40 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· In terms of civilian infrastructure, there are wounded and civilian casualties."
· "On January 5, a train with refrigerators filled with dead Russians arrived from Rostov-on-Don to the Kemerovo region. The corpses must be unloaded to local morgues."
· "In the temporarily occupied territories, in the settlements of Gornostaevka, Cairo, Zavodivka and Marinskoye, Kherson region, the occupiers stopped the broadcast of all Ukrainian TV channels, only Russian television is broadcast."
· "3 reconnaissance UAVs of the Orlan-10 type occupants were shot down.
· During the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck 21 areas of concentration of the enemy, as well as 3 strikes on the positions of its anti-aircraft missile systems.
· "The threat of air and missile strikes remains throughout Ukraine. Do not ignore the air alarms.
· Our units of rocket troops and artillery hit the control point, 5 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment and 2 enemy ammunition depots.
00:21: Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmitry Lubinets plans to meet with Russian Ombudswoman Tetiana Moskalkova in Turkey in a few days.
· The ombudsman said that the meeting would discuss the exchange of prisoners of war, as well as civilian hostages.
January 7
20:42 Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets: The dissolution of the commission to establish the facts of the terrorist attack in Olenivka, during which dozens of Ukrainian servicemen were killed, is another demonstration of the UN's mediation-neutral position.
· "There is not a single word of condemnation of the Russian side, which has done everything to prevent this international mission from entering there. Therefore, in my opinion, if such a decision is made, then do some work."
18:41 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on January 7:
· "Despite the announced so-called "ceasefire regime", the Russian occupiers continue to shell the positions of our units from tanks, mortars, and barreled artillery.
· Along with this, during the day, the enemy launched an airstrike and carried out 7 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems."
· "In the temporarily occupied territories, in the city of Melitopol and the settlement of Priazovskoye, Zaporozhye region, the occupiers stopped broadcasting all Ukrainian TV channels, only Russian television is broadcast."
· "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck 21 areas of concentration of the enemy, as well as 3 strikes on the positions of its anti-aircraft missile systems."
· "Our rocket launchers and artillerymen hit 4 areas of concentration of manpower and 2 enemy ammunition depots.
· The danger of enemy air and missile strikes on critical infrastructure remains throughout Ukraine."
17:40: Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed NSDC sanctions against Russian and some Ukrainian cultural figures, with 119 names on the list.
· TV presenter Zhanna Badoeva, football player Anatoly Tymoshchuk, rapper Basta (Vasily Vakulenko), artists Irina Allegrova, Dmitry Bilan, Mikhail Galustyan, Larisa Dolina, Philip Kirkorov, Sergey Lazarev, propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov, comedian Evgeny Petrosyan and many others fell under the sanctions.
14:26 press service of the National Bank of Ukraine.: Ukraine's international reserves at the beginning of the year increased to $28.5 billion.
· The National Bank noted that in December reserves increased by 1.9% compared to November 2022 due to foreign exchange earnings from international partners, which exceeded
13:23: A map of mined Ukrainian territories, - State Emergency Service.
· The interactive map allows you to make sure that the roads that move Ukrainians are safe.
12:02: "Ukrainians are surprised. Ukrainians are applauded. Ukrainians are inspiring. Is there anything that can scare us? No. Is there anyone who can stop us? No. Because we are all together. That's what we're fighting for. For each other," Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
MORDOR (russia)
January 8
09:38 Institute for the Study of War: Russian advances near Soledar does not mean that Bakhmut will be encircled.
· "Russian troops are far from this. To effectively cut Ukrainian land communication lines in Bakhmut, they would have to establish control over the Siversk-Bakhmut highway and reach the Sloviansk-Bakhmut highway," the message says.
· Russia continues to use religion as a weapon, criticizing Ukrainian authorities and the church
· "Russian military leaders falsely presented the legal transfer of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra from the UOC-MP to the OCU as an attack on the possibility of adherents of the Orthodox tradition to celebrate Christmas," the message says.
January 7
22:51 Social Networks: In the Second Mokwa area of Kursk, there is no light. The entire private sector was left without heating at -22.
22:35: In Kursk, a fire broke out at a transformer substation in the suburbs.
21:33: A passenger Boeing 737 en route from Murmansk to Moscow gave an alarm in the sky over the Vologda region, the Russian aviation services said.
14:48 Defence Intelligence of Ukraine: On January 15, Russia may announce additional mobilization.
· According to him, up to half a million Russians will be mobilized to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Mobilization, a draft decree on which already exists, this time will also take place in major Russian cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
· NBU interventions on the sale of currency to maintain a fixed rate.
13:56 Center for National Resistance: The Russians may blow up the dam of the Svatovsky reservoir, (Luhansk) to try to slow down the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
16:16 : Heavy bloody battles take place in Soledar.
· Only from 00:00 there were 76 shellings of the occupier in this direction, 10 combat clashes, said the spokesman of the Eastern group of troops Serhiy Cherevatyi.
KHARKIV
January 8
09:10 Kharkiv RMA: Last night, the Russians launched two missile strikes on the city of Merefa, Kharkiv district.
· "A damaged civilian industry facility. Unfortunately, a 50-year-old civilian died," Sinegubov wrote.
· Also during the day, Russian troops shelled the village of Staritsa, Chuguevsky district, and the village of Dvorechnaya, Kupyansk district.
00:04 Kharkiv RMA: Psaid that according to the updated data of the regional Emergency Medical Center, a 50-year-old man was killed in Russian strikes in Merefa.
January 7
23:41 Kharkiv RMA: Two "arrivals" of enemy missiles were recorded in Meref, Kharkiv region.
· According to preliminary information, there is one victim.
23:15 Kharkiv RMA: Warned residents of the region about the threat of Russian missile strikes.
LUHANSK
January 8
10:29 Luhansk RMA: There are heavy fighting near Kreminna. Russian troops deployed several battalions of paratroopers and heavy equipment there. The Russians are gradually sagging there.
January 7
19:22 Russian Media: In the temporarily occupied Luhansk region, an explosion occurred on the gas pipeline.
· According to RosSMI, the explosion on the main pipeline occurred in the city of Lutugyne on the territory of the self-proclaimed LPR. 11 thousand people were left without gas.
18:22 Luhansk RMA: Yesterday, Luhansk partisans destroyed the railway connection "Lugansk - Lantrativka" with the help of an improvised explosive device.
· It has been previously established that the specified railway connection is used by the Russians to transport military equipment, personnel and BC, as well as the export of Ukrainian grain.
· Lantrativka is located near the Russian border, on the rail line going south to Svatove and Kremina. If this news is accurate, it cuts a major russian resupply route to its troops operating in these two cities, and further south toward Bakhmut.
12:42 Luhansk RMA: 300 Ukrainian children were taken to Moscow from the territory of Luhansk and Donetsk regions
· "300 children from Luhansk and Donetsk regions were delivered to Moscow for "treatment". This is official data from the leadership of this city. It is difficult to imagine how many children from our region under the pretext of hospitalization were deported to other settlements of the Russian Federation," the message says.
12:22 British intelligence: A section of the front near Kreminna, Luhansk region, could pose a threat to Russians in the Bakhmut direction.
· Over the past three weeks, fighting has been taking place mostly in forests west of the city.
· "Since the coniferous forest provides some shelter from aerial observation even in winter, both sides are likely struggling to accurately adjust artillery fire," the report said.
12:12: Soledar remains under the control of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, — Deputy Committee of the Verkhovna Rada on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yurii Mysyagin.
DONETSK
January 8
10:00 Donetsk RMA: After midnight, the Russians launched 7 missile strikes on Kramatorsk and two on Konstantinovka. Fortunately, there were no casualties.
· In the Donetsk direction, the Russians most actively shot at the Kurakhiv community. During the night, shelling of Marinka continued, and the next morning Avdiivka was shelled from Grad rockets and no one was injured.
· In the Horlivka direction, 1 person was killed and 1 person wounded in Soledar. Also, 2 houses in Paraskoviivka were damaged in the community.
· In the Lysychansk direction, about 20 shellings were recorded in Torsk and Zarechnoye, without casualties, the volume of destruction is being established.
01:39 Donetsk RMA: Seven missile strikes on Kramatorsk and two on Konstantinovka were carried out by Russian troops that night.
· In Kramatorsk, the buildings of an educational institution and an industrial facility, as well as a garage cooperative, were damaged.
· In Konstantinovka, the blow came to the industrial zone.
· According to preliminary information, there were no casualties or casualties during the shelling.
January 7
23:13 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv region and Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
15:16 press service of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine: Border guards stopped another Russian attack near Bakhmut and eliminated the commander.
· "With accurate shots, snipers of the State Border Guard Service eliminated the commander and machine gunner," the report said.
14:05 Prosecutor General's Office: Yesterday's Russian shelling of Bakhmut and the Bakhmut district killed a 66-year-old man and a 61-year-old woman.
· Thirteen other people were injured.
14:15: "The situation in the city of Bakhmut is stable, heavy fighting continues. The enemy is trying to storm the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the defense is standing," the Ukrainian military said.
ZAPORIZHIA
January 8
08:42 Zaporizhia RMA: On January 7, Russians shelled a UN humanitarian mission carrying aid to the frontline city of Orikhiv, Zaporizhia region.
· According to Starukh, despite the fact that Russia allegedly declared a ceasefire, Russian troops struck a UN humanitarian mission, which also included the UN coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown.
03:21: The mayor of the temporarily occupied Melitopol confirmed the explosions in the city.
· "A series of loud explosions in Melitopol. Rashists again smoke unsuccessfully in the occupied territories. And so much that detonates and detonates," Ivan Fedorov wrote in his telegram channel.
03:11 Social Networks: Explosions in the temporarily occupied Melitopol are reported.
January 7
23:31 Secretary of the City Council: The Russian army carried out a rocket attack on the outskirts of Zaporizhia.
22:04 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhia.
16:30: About 220 shells were fired by the Russians at Gulyaipol, Zaporizhia region, in a day, — the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
14:00 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhia region.
14:39 Social Networks: UAV wreckage in the city of Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region.
DNIPRO
January 8
09:21 Dnipro RMA: At night, the Russians fired heavy artillery at the Chervonohryhorivska and Myrivska communities.
· "People weren't injured. Representatives of the State Emergency Service continue to examine the affected areas - they find out the consequences of the attacks”.
KHERSON
January 8
11:33: Social Networks: New explosions in Kherson are reported.
10:56 Social Networks: A third Russian attack in the morning in Kherson is reported.
10:19 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled the territory of Kherson region 19 times.
· Due to the attacks of the Russians, the civilian infrastructure of the settlements of the Kherson and Beryslav districts was damaged. 1 person was injured.
10:03 a.m. Social Networks: Repeated explosions in Kherson are reported.
00:32 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
January 7
13:45: Since January 1, Russians have banned the hryvnia in the occupied part of the Kherson region: they hunt those who exchange money - the first deputy chairman of the Kherson regional council.
· Locals are forced to exchange hryvnia reserves for rubles in order to survive, or they are looking for points where cards of Ukrainian banks can be cashed out.
12:55 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
MYKOLAIV
January 8
11:47 Mykolaiv RMA: Yesterday, the Russians launched artillery strikes on one of the settlements of the Kutsurub community,
· Residential buildings were damaged. There are no casualties.
ODESA
January 7
16:45 Command of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Two drifting anti-ship mines were found and destroyed off the coast of the Odessa region.
KYIV
January 7
21:03: We have enough forces and means to protect the Kyiv region, says Lieutenant-General Oleksandr Pavliuk.
· "The Kyiv region has prepared for a possible offensive. Around Kiev there are several lines of defense with a total length of about a thousand kilometers. There, on the basis of professional positions, long-term structures, a powerful defense system was created. The entire border with Belarus is solid rubble, minefields. It takes a lot of effort to get through them."
SUMY
January 7
21:52 Sumy RMA: Today, the Russians shelled the Velykopysarivska and Shalyginsk communities.
· There were no casualties and destruction.
23:38: Explosions are heard in the Sumy region. We are waiting for official information.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka