Ukraine – 1/18 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
January 18, 2023
Timothy Ash on Ukraine Reconstruction and the Russian Oil Price Cap
Timothy Ash is the most knowledgeable person on all matters of Ukraine’s macro economy. In the last couple of days he has published 2 articles, one on Ukraine’s reconstruction, and the other on the success of the price cap on the sale of Russian oil.
Reconstruction - Ash argues that there needs to be one agency established, with overall responsibility for Ukraine’s reconstruction, along the lines of the Ramstein Framework that is focused on Ukraine’ defense needs. There is one important difference, between the reconstruction agency that Ash contemplates and Ramstein. The participants at Ramstein are made up exclusively of governments, because transfer of weapons is, or at least should be, the sole responsibility of governments.
I agree with Ash’s proposal for a single agency but, as Ash admits, it will be difficult to establish, at least initially. Any agency with the responsibility for Ukraine’s reconstruction must be made up of national governments, primarily their bi-lateral aid agencies such as USAID, multi-lateral institutions like the World Bank and IMF, regional development finance institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB), and the Private Sector, made up largely of private companies and private financial institutions, from the West, Japan and, I would emphasize, Ukraine, as well international NGOs.
As Ash describes the Private Sector will play a huge rule, perhaps the largest role in terms of investment. As Ash describes (bold face is mine), “Ukraine’s reconstruction needs are huge, with estimates now ranging from $500bn to $1 trillion. Western taxpayers will not fund such huge figures. Inevitably the burden will have to fall on the private sector. But the private sector will surely have huge concerns about investing in Ukraine given the track record of corruption/rule of law issues, and also now security concerns. For private business to commit to Ukraine’s reconstruction it will surely need to be assured of the importance of this project to Western donors, that Western governments stand behind Ukraine.”
Despite substantial losses, the Ukrainian private sector still has substantial resources that must be brought to bear in any plan for reconstruction. This includes Ukrainian individuals, who have distinguished careers in international finance, private equity and business.
An example of how reconstruction might proceed in Ukraine is Azovstal, the steel complex in Mariupol that was destroyed in the fighting and is owned by Rinat Akhmetov’s Metinvest. The Owner of Metinvest is Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest individual. No international development finance institution or international bank will provide financing for a rebuilding of Azovstal, unless it includes modern equipment and the latest in pollution control technology. Metinvest will have to agree to provisions relating to corruption, and the ability to operate without the state subsidies that they received before the war. The same applies to any number of heavy industries that were primarily located in Donbas before the war. Many of these industries either won’t be rebuilt at all or, if they are, they will have to incorporate modern technologies and produce products compliant with EU and international standards.
There are various estimates of what percentage of Ukraine’s GDP operates in the “gray economy.” Usually, the estimates fall between 30 and 50%. This is a serious problem, made even more so because of the fiscal pressures on the Ukrainian Government caused by the war. Recently Tymofiy Mylovanov, Ukraine’s former Minister of Economy, estimated that Ukraine’s GDP Per Capita is vastly understated, primarily because the numerator, Ukraine’s output, is understated because of the size of the gray economy.
Many private businesses in Ukraine have a lot of money. Euromaidan was largely financed by Ukrainian private businesses, and not the U.S. State Department. They will provide the same support Ukraine’s reconstruction, unless they’re crowded out. In June 2016 I met with group of businesspeople from Lv’iv. They told me that they, along with the Greek Catholic Church and Ukraine Catholic University, raised $100,000 in support of Euromaidan – in one day. That is just one group, from one city.
Ukraine reconstruction should be undertaken using the same type of organization that Ukraine has used so successfully on the battlefield – from the bottom up, by incorporating Western technology and support but allowing unit commanders on the ground maximum latitude to make decisions. I agree with Tim Ash’s proposal for an agency overseeing reconstruction, but it must be done in a way that gives the ultimate beneficiaries, Ukrainian people and businesses, the latitude to make decisions that make economic sense for them.
Oil Price Cap – Ash estimates that Russia is losing around $150 billion/year, from their inability to sell gas to Europe, or anywhere else, and the price cap on the sale of oil. Although the price cap was designed to incentivize Russia to continue to sell oil, the reduction in revenues may, over time and combined with the sanctions, stunt Russia’s ability to produce oil at any price. Shutting in gas wells make it much harder, if not impossible, to bring them back into service. The major oil service companies, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Halliburton, can no longer operate in Russia.
The Russian war machine operates in Rubles but, as Ash points out, the Russian Finance Ministry may have to de-value to allow Russian war production to continue at the necessary level to support Russia’s war effort. At the same time, a devalued Ruble combined with sanctions will reduce Russia’s ability to replace lost equipment and ammunition, especially missiles. Some are saying that this explains why Russians are carting off washers and dryers from Ukrainian houses – they want the computer chips contained therein.
News From the Battlefield
I am adding a new source, called “Combat Veteran Reacts.” I like the maps he uses, and he also agrees that Kremina/Svatove is the key, and Ukraine may be fighting around Soledar in order to increase Russian casualties and to prevent Russia from transferring troops up to Kremina.
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes what happens when lakes and rivers freeze over, to the point where they can support the weight of equipment and infantry. Adiivka, located a short distance from Donetsk City, has been a thorn in the side of the Russian war effort in this area. Adiivka is also the site of the Adiivka Coking Plant, owned by Metinvest one of the companies owned by the aforementioned Rinat Akhmetov. I will still monitor the “Latest Denys.”
The Druzhba Hockey Club From Kharkiv
The ice hockey rink where they played was recently destroyed by a Russian cruise missile. Russia said that Ukraine was storing and maintaining artillery inside, which was never the case. Now, two groups from Chicago, “Heroes of Ukraine” an organization providing assistance in Ukraine and “CD Hockey” that organizes youth hockey camps, are combining to bring the Ukrainian players to the U.S.
Druzhba has a long history. It was originally established with the support of the late Eugene Kinasewich, a Canadian of Ukrainian descent from Edmonton, Alberta, who played hockey for Harvard, along with some of his Harvard teammates. This is an article from Sports Illustrated that describes how Kinasewich came to Harvard, and he was eventually allowed to play hockey for Harvard despite previously playing as a semi-pro in Canada.
Druzhba used to come to the U.S. to play local youth teams. One of the objectives of the trips was to give talented Ukrainian players the opportunity to be recognized by U.S. colleges, with the idea that they would be offered athletic scholarships. One the beneficiaries was Liza Ryabkina, who ended up playing for Harvard between 2007 and 2011, and she was a Tri-Captain her Senior Year. At the time Liza played, Harvard was one of the best college hockey teams in the U.S. Prior to coming to the U.S. Liza had the distinction of having to file a lawsuit against the Ukrainian Hockey Federation and former President Yushchenko, to be allowed to play with the boys. As far as I know Liza now lives in the Boston area, married, works in a bank, and still plays club hockey – with the guys.
1/18 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon January 17 to 12:00 noon January 18, 2022
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
January 18
09:49 U.S. Secretary of State: The U.S. will give Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield.
· "As this aggression developed, so did our assistance to Ukraine to make sure it had everything it needed to counter aggression," Blinken said in Washington at a joint press conference with British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley.
09:15 CNN - British Foreign Secretary: The decision to provide Ukraine with tanks sends a clear message to Putin.
· "The message we send to Putin is that we have committed ourselves to supporting Ukrainians until they win," he said.
08:36 The New York Times: The United States has reached an agreement to supply Ukraine with 155-mm artillery ammunition from American warehouses located in Israel.
· According to the sources of the publication, the agreement provides for the supply of Ukraine 300 thousand artillery shells, about half of which have already been transported to Europe and are expected to be delivered to Ukraine through Poland.
08:24: The EU is considering a fourth package of sanctions against Iran for supporting Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
· Diplomatic sources told Reuters that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be added to next week's sanctions list.
08:00: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had a phone conversation with US President Joseph Biden. The leaders exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine, says federal government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit.
00:36: At a speech in Davos, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez warned that Europe must be ready to fight the "rot" of Putin's supporters to prevent them from harming the EU.
· "Let's not forget that the Russian autocrat is not alone in his reactionary aspirations. He still has allies in Europe. We must prevent these political forces from coming to power and destroying the EU from the inside," he said.
00:06: The European Commission has allocated EUR 100 million for the restoration of Ukrainian schools
· This was announced by First Lady Olena Zelenska after a meeting with the President of the European Commission at the World Economic Forum in Davos:
· "New school buses, laptops, textbooks. All this is the European Commission's assistance to Ukraine only recently, and it is invaluable as training itself. Our children have the right and opportunity to learn. It was a very important signal that assistance should be provided here and now."
January 17
23:40 espreso - Guardian: "Leopard Coalition": Britain will join Poland and the Baltic states to convince Germany to hand over tanks to Ukraine.
· The meeting of the "Leopard Coalition" will take place between countries that will transfer or wish to send Western tanks to Kyiv. It comes a day before a group of about 50 defence ministers gather in Ramstein to discuss future arms shipments to Ukraine.
· According to the publication, the purpose of Thursday's meeting will be to "encourage the Germans" if Berlin does not make any decision before that.
23:35: The Netherlands confirmed (https://espreso.tv/niderlandi-rozglyadayut-nadannya-ukraini-sistemi-ppo-patriot-bloomberg) the provision of the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
· Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told US President Joe Biden that the Netherlands would offer Ukraine a Patriot anti-aircraft missile system after the United States and Germany.
· Zelenskyy thanked the Netherlands for their intention to supply Ukraine with Patriot systems.
23:20 espreso media about Ukraine 17 January
· The New York Times: Americans primarily publish (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/world/europe/wagner-group-defection-norway-russia-war.html) an article about one of the heads of departments of the Wagner PMC, Andrei Medvedev. They emphasize that this escape of a former member of the infamous Russian paramilitary group could help investigate Moscow's atrocities.
· The Washington Post: American journalists publish (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/17/milley-zaluzhny-poland-ukraine-russia/) news about a meeting between high-ranking US General Mark Milley and General Valery Zaluzhny, which took place near the war zone.
· BBC: The publication publishes (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-64305880) a video of Zelenska's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, noting that she is leading a large Ukrainian delegation of ministers and mayors who have arrived to talk about increasing aid to Ukraine.
22:58: The Russian Embassy in Sweden has posted a map on its Twitter page with gasoline prices in various European countries. On this map, the Russian Embassy recognized Crimea as part of Ukraine.
22:41: Taken to a filtration camp and separated from his mother: A 12-year-old Mariupol resident told in Davos about the crimes of the Russians.
· "The Russians were told to give up. Then they took us to a KamAZ and took us to the filtration camp. They took me away from my mother there, they didn't even let me say goodbye. I asked, "Where am they taking me?". And they said, "To the orphanage." They said that they would adopt me there," the little Ukrainian emphasizes.
· The guy told his story within the framework of the project "Ukraine is you"
22:11: A Russian-initiated meeting of the UN Security Council begins in New York over the "oppression of the united canonical Orthodox Church" in Ukraine.
· At the same time, the UOC-MP reported that they had not asked Russia, "which had committed a treacherous armed attack on the country,” and stated that they had not authorized anyone from the ROC to speak on their behalf at the UN.
21:54 Secretary of Defense: The U.S. plans to train the Ukrainian military to use Patriot systems in 10 weeks.
· "Previously, we could not even dream of what we would be given, for example, the Patriot, which costs a billion dollars, and the preparation, which is 10 months, is minimal. Today there is a decision that our officers will be trained in 10 weeks. Such commitments were made by American partners," the minister said at a meeting with representatives of critical infrastructure.
21:40 Swissinfo: Spain puts pressure on Switzerland over the supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
· Spain has sent an official request to the Swiss Secretary of State for Economic Affairs with a request for permission to transfer two Swiss 35-mm anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.
· Currently, Switzerland adheres to neutrality and does not allow other countries to send Swiss-made weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
21:24: Germany's Wintershall Dea, Europe's largest oil and gas company, has announced its withdrawal from Russia.
· The loss from the write-off of Russian assets in the company was estimated at 5.3 billion euros.
· The head of Wintershall Dea, Mario Meren, called the continuation of the company's activities in the Russian market "impractical in light of the Russian army's invasion of Ukraine."
19:59 Bloomberg - Chancellor of Germany: Germany is discussing with the allies possible supplies of Leopard heavy tanks to Ukraine, but for any announcements it is necessary to coordinate this issue with other countries.
· The chancellor also noted that his country supports Ukraine "as much as necessary and by all means that it can use." But he clarified that one of the main goals now is to prevent war between Russia and NATO.
19:34 Bloomberg: The Netherlands is considering transferring the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, the country's authorities will soon make a final decision.
18:05: Today, the first personal meeting of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley, took place in Poland.
· "I thanked General Milley for the unwavering support and assistance provided by the United States and allies to Ukraine. He outlined the urgent needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the satisfaction of which will accelerate our victory," Zaluzhny said.
17:30: First Lady Olena Zelenska presented the Ukrainian formula for peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
· "She presented her human dimension, because in Ukraine we are primarily focused on people and peace for people," Zelenska said.
16:01 ESPRESO: President of the European Commission: We are imposing the strongest sanctions against Russia, which will plunge its economy into recession for decades.
· This was stated by the Chairman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
· The Head of the European Commission assured that Russia's aggressive war would not go unpunished.
· She also promised Ukrainians that the West's "unwavering support for Ukraine" would continue.
15:45 espreso: Lithuanian President expressed hope that at the NATO summit in July, Ukraine would be given clearer signals on membership.
· "I expect that decisions will be taken at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. And we very much hope that this summit will be dedicated not only to our own security, but also to the security of Ukraine - in the sense that some wording will also be found on Ukraine's expectations to integrate more closely into NATO," said President Gitanas Nauseda.
15:32 Reuters: Russian flags banned at the Australian Open at the Australian Open tennis championships.
· At the request of Ukraine’s Ambassador to Australia and New Zealand, the Australian Tennis Club banned Russian and Belarusian flags at the Australian Open tennis championships, after fans hung a Russian flag on the court during a Ukrainian vs. Russian woman's match.
· The Ukrainian player won the match in 3 sets, after which she shook hands with her Russian opponent. Highlights of the match can be seen here. The Reuters account of the decision to ban Russian and Belarusian flags from the grounds can be seen here.
15:17 Reuters: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić says Russia must stop trying to recruit Serbs to participate in hostilities on the side of Wagner's PMC in Ukraine.
· "Why do you, from Wagner, call someone from Serbia when you know that this is contrary to our rules?" said Vučić.
· Currently, law enforcement officers and military departments of the country are checking information about the participation of Serbian mercenaries in the Russian war against Ukraine.
14:02: Vitali Klitschko announced "good news" in Davos about the transfer of weapons to Ukraine from allies.
· "I met with the Vice-Chancellor - Minister of Economy of Germany Robert Habeck. They talked about further support and assistance to Ukraine. In particular, the transfer of weapons. Positive decisions have been made. Good news will be soon!" said Klitschko.
12:48 Polish President in Davos: Poland is assembling a coalition of countries that will provide Ukraine with German Leopard 2 tanks and hopes that it will be possible to form at least an armored brigade.
· "Five days ago, I announced our decision on Leopard tanks. One company of Leopard tanks is approximately 14 tanks. But we hope and try to organize more support for Ukraine," he said.
12:39 Politico: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will pay a February 5-6 visit to China to discuss Ukraine as well.
· U.S. experts say China-U.S. relations have become "dangerously bad" and Blinken's visit will reveal whether Biden-Xi Jinping's meeting at the G20 summit had an effect.
12:29 press service of the European Commission: The European Union transferred the first tranche of EUR 3 billion to Ukraine within the framework of the memorandum signed the day before on the provision of EUR 18 billion in macro-financial assistance to Kyiv.
13:29: The head of the Latvian Ministry of Defense Inara Murniece arrived in Ukraine.
· The Head of the Latvian Ministry met with the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk, during the meeting they discussed the formula of peace between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and cooperation between the countries in the defense sphere.
NATIONAL
January 18
11:31 Ukrenergo: Electricity consumption is projected to be slightly less than yesterday. At the same time, there is a significant shortage of power in the power system.
· Currently, due to exceeding the consumption limit, emergency outages have already been applied in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy regions of Ukraine.
10:22: 16 warships of the Russian Federation are on combat duty in the Black Sea - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· According to the General Staff, out of a total of 6 ships are carriers of cruise missiles "Caliber". The total volley is 44 missiles.
08:52 DTEK: Emergency power outages continue in the Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Donetsk regions.
07:06: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: 6 missiles, 3 of which at civilian targets in the cities of Kupyansk and Kramatorsk, as well as 14 air strikes were inflicted by the enemy during the past day. He also carried out 95 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· The main efforts of the Russian Federation are focused on conducting an offensive in the Bakhmut direction. Conducts unsuccessful offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction.
· Thus, units of the Defense Forces repulsed Russian attacks in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region and Sil, Krasnaya Gora, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Vodiane, Nevelskoye, Marinka and Pobeda in the Donetsk region.
· 07:20: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Due to the small number of collaborators, Russians are forced to import officials from the Russian Federation to perform managerial functions of the occupation regime in the temporarily occupied territories.
· During the day, Ukrainian aviation inflicted 12 strikes on areas of concentration of Russian troops, as well as 4 strikes on the positions of its anti-aircraft missile systems.
· In addition, around Soledar, anti-aircraft gunners destroyed the enemy Su-25 aircraft.
· Units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine hit 2 control points per day, as well as 5 areas of concentration of Russians, an ammunition depot, an EW station and a radar station.
January 17
19:44: A mission of IAEA experts arrived at the Rivne NPP, said Rafael Grossi, the head of the organization.
19:24 Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights: The International Committee of the Red Cross has not yet gained access to prisoners. In this regard, it is planned to organize an online meeting with representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the organization itself.
· According to him, such a meeting is necessary to discuss the essence of the problem of admission and find ways to solve it, so that representatives of monitoring missions can access and work in accordance with their mandate.
18:54 Operational Command South: Russia has paused Iranian kamikaze drones against Ukraine. However, the Russian Federation spent this time preparing a new attack on Ukraine using Shahed.
· She stressed that the threat of strikes with kamikaze drones has not gone away.
18:25 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· During the day, the enemy launched 4 missile strikes, 2 of which were on a civilian object in the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
· The enemy also inflicted 13 air strikes. He carried out 23 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· Russian troops are trying to isolate the civilian population in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region from access to alternative sources of information.
· Along with stopping the broadcast of all Ukrainian TV channels, the Russians made available mobile communications only to Russian operators.
· The enemy does not abandon its intentions to seize the Donetsk region within the administrative borders. The main efforts are focused on the conduct of the offensive in the Bakhmut direction. Conducts unsuccessful offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction.
· The Russian occupiers are trying to isolate the civilian population in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region from access to alternative sources of information. Along with stopping the broadcast of all Ukrainian TV channels, the invaders made available mobile communications only to Russian operators.
· During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted 10 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment.
· During the day, our defenders destroyed the enemy aircraft Su-25.
· According to available information, Russian troops are intensifying the search activities of their deserters in the temporarily occupied territories.
· Under the pretext of searching for Ukrainian saboteurs, the Russians carry out raids on the settlements of the Kherson region.
· Units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine during the day hit 2 control points as well as the area of concentration of Russians, an ammunition depot, an electronic warfare station and a radio location station.
17:54: 3 energy companies were fined for non-compliance with the schedules of power outages in Ukraine, according to the NEURC website.
· Vinnytsiaoblenergo, Chernivtsioblenergo and Volynoblenergo fell under the regulator's sanctions. According to the results of the inspections, in these three areas the schedules were drawn up unevenly, and consumers were not properly informed about the blackout.
· The amount of the fine is minimal and amounts to 85 thousand hryvnias. The heads of these companies were personally fined UAH 1700 each.
19:14: Soon, Ukrainians will be able to find out in the Diia app who viewed their personal data.
· This was announced by Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov.
· "Revolutionary government decree. Each case will be recorded in Trembita. And you will receive push notifications in Diia that a certain state body requested personal data," Fedorov wrote.
17:45 Prime Minister: As a result of the last missile strike in Ukraine, nine thermal power units, three substations and one overhead power line were damaged.
· Such damage has led to an increase in power shortages in the power system and emergency power outages for consumers.
· "However, the power system survived, remained integrated and manageable. Repair work is underway around the clock," the prime minister added.
16:48: For the first time in Ukraine, the seaport was privatized — "Ust-Dunaisk" in the Odessa region was sold at auction for UAH 201 million, according to the website of the State Property Fund.
· The port resumed operations on April 1. Since then, 153 thousand tons of grain and 58.3 thousand tons of imported consumer goods have been transported for export.
16:33: Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a video conference meeting with Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
15:06 espreso: "Preparations for the next strike": Humenyuk explained why Russia stopped using Iranian drones.
· Russia must prepare its bases and military for a new attack by Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones.
· This was stated on the air of Espresso by the head of the press center of the Security and Defense Forces of ok "South" Natalia Gumenyuk.
14:49 head of "Ukrzaliznytsia": By the end of the year, WI-FI from "Starlink" will be available in all intercity trains.
15:46 Kharkiv RMA: Today, at about 14:30, the Russians shelled the city of Kupyansk.
· A Russian S-300 rocket hit the Kupyansk Motor Transport Professional College, the premises were almost completely destroyed. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties.
MORDOR (Russia)
January 18
07:44 Institute for the Study of War: Putin may soon declare war on Ukraine and a new wave of mobilization.
· Analysts noted that Kremlin spokesman Peskov announced Putin's speech in St. Petersburg on January 18 with a speech in honor of the 80th anniversary of the breakthrough of the Nazi blockade of Leningrad, the hometown of the Russian president.
· Putin likes to use symbolic dates to address the Russian people, and some Russian pro-war bloggers have noted that he will take this opportunity to either declare mobilization or war with Ukraine," the experts said.
00:56: Video of the destruction of the Russian T-90 Breakthrough tank in the Svatovsky direction has appeared on the network.
· Tanks T-90M "Breakthrough" Russian media call "the pinnacle of tank-building thought."
January 17
23:35: In Moscow, police detained four people near the monument to Lesya Ukrainka, a spontaneous memorial in memory of the victims of a missile strike in Dnipro.
22:25 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Belgorod region.
20:16 espreso: Putin introduced a bill to cancel Russia's agreements with the Council of Europe.
· International treaties will cease to operate in Russia on March 16, 2022. It is noted that we are talking about the following contracts:
o Charter of the Council of Europe;
o General Agreement on the Privileges and Immunities of the Council of Europe;
o the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, as well as its ten protocols;
o the European Convention for the Suppression of Terrorism;
o European Charter of Local Self-Government;
o European Social Charter.
12:59 New York Times: A UOC (MP) priest from Severodonetsk instructed the Russian military which of the OCU priests should be killed.
· The New York Times published details about the subversive activities of the priest Andrei Pavlenko of Severodonetsk. The SBU detained him on suspicion of cooperating with the occupiers.
· According to the publication, he was not only a corrector, helping the Russians to shell the city, but also gave instructions to eliminate his "competitors" – he advised which of the priests of the OCU should be killed.
LUHANSK
January 18
09:39: The Security Service has identified another Russian war criminal who committed atrocities against civilians after seizing part of the Luhansk region.
· It was established that he headed one of the rapid reaction units "akhmat" of the Russian Guard in the Chechen Republic and hid his real name under the call sign "Lobzyk".
DONETSK
January 17
17:15 SBU press service: Special forces of the SBU Special Operations Center "A" staged hell for Russian troops near Bakhmut.
· "During the aerial reconnaissance, Ukrainian special forces discovered the enemy's trenches, already dotted with the corpses of the occupiers. And after a series of attacks by kamikaze drones on their positions, the number of "demobilized" Russians increased significantly."
16:09: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Donetsk.
12:14 Donetsk RMA: Around midnight, the Russians shelled Kramatorsk and targeted an industrial enterprise. No one was injured.
· 5 houses were damaged in Vuhledar, and Novoukrainka came under fire without casualties.
· In Donetsk sector, 1 person died in Severne. Isolated shelling of Avdiivka, Marinka and the outskirts of the Kurakhivska community was recorded, and in the morning the shelling of Kurakhivka from the MLRS was recorded.
· In the Gorlovka direction, 1 person died in Bakhmut. 2 private houses and a high-rise building were damaged in the city.
· A house was damaged in Illinovka. Under fire, Soledar, Paraskoviivka, Rozdolivka and Fedorovka. A house in Lyman was damaged, and Siversk was also under fire.
12:04 Operational Command East: The Ukrainian military is in Soledar and rebuffs the Russian army.
· "The situation is the same as yesterday. Our units are there and are constantly hitting the enemy with fire," he said.
ZAPORIZHIA
January 17
13:46 Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol: Russia is transferring military equipment to the Zaporizhia direction of the front. In Mariupol, about 20 tanks and 30 trucks with manpower were spotted in the direction of Berdyansk.
· Fuel tankers also ply from Novoazovsk to Berdyansk and back.
14:17 Zaporizhia RMA: Over the past day, the number of shellings in the Zaporizhia region has increased to 130. There was a report of the destruction of 64 residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
· Also that night, the enemy carried out artillery shelling of the Bilenkivska community. As a result of the shelling, three houses, outbuildings and cars were damaged.
DNIPRO
January 18
07:54 Dnipro RMA: The Russians covered the Nikopol district three times with heavy artillery fire. More than two dozen Russian shells arrived in two communities - Marganetsk and Krasnogrigorovsk.
· According to the head of the Dnipropetrovsk OVA Valentyn Reznichenko, houses and power lines were damaged. The consequences are still being clarified.
January 17
17:00 Dnipro RMA: According to the updated information, a Russian rocket in Dnipro killed 45 people, including 6 children.
15:59 National Police: The bodies of 15 dead as a result of a missile strike on a high-rise building in Dnipro remain unidentified
· 20 people remain missing, four of them children.
13:20 SES of Ukraine: At 13:00 on January 17, search and rescue operations in Dnipro at the site of the missile strike were completed.
· 39 people were rescued, including 6 children, 44 people died, including 5 children, 79 people were injured, including 16 children, 47 reports of missing persons were received, of which 23 people were identified dead, 4 people were found alive in relatives, in hospitals.
13:09 DTEK: In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the situation with power supply is very difficult.
· There are emergency outages, the light may not be for 8 hours in a row.
KHERSON
January 18
11:45: Explosions are heard in Kherson, according to subscribers. We are waiting for official information.
January 17
23:05: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
· In all cases, there were no casualties and destruction.
19:48: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
16:28: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
15:01 Kherson RMA: Russian army shelled a critical infrastructure enterprise in Kherson.
· Shells damaged administrative buildings, machine and assembly halls, and an oxygen station. There are no casualties.
MYKOLAIV
January 17
21:57: Police Chief of the Mykolaiv region Serhiy Shaikhet reports heavy shelling of the city of Ochakov.
· "MLRS again. Local residents - be in shelter," he said.
21:20: Explosions are heard in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv region.
ODESA
January 17
20:14: DTEK reports a large shortage of electricity in Odesa region.
· It is reported that as of today, DTEK Odesa Grids has received an order for restrictions that make up half of the normal consumption of the region.
· The company explains that it will be possible to return to the schedules only when Ukrenergo provides large consumption limits for the region.
KYIV
January 18
11:53: A rescue operation continues in Brovary at the scene of the tragedy. The rubble is being dismantled, said the head of the Kyiv OVA Oleksiy Kuleba.
· Children from kindergarten are in another educational institution, the relevant services work with them. The circumstances of the disaster are currently being clarified.
11:50: A special group is being set up in Ukraine to investigate the circumstances of the plane crash in Brovary, says Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.
· Prosecutor General Andrei Kostin added that the case is under his personal control.
11:20: "The helicopter made three laps over the Fora, flew to the center, began to decline sharply, hit, caught fire and that's it," a Brovary resident said about the last minutes before the plane crash.
11:07: Air Force Speaker Yuri Ignat said it would take several weeks to investigate the causes of the plane crash in Brovary.
· "The commission, which will include various aviation experts, will investigate the causes. It will not be 1-2 days, because the study of the plane crash takes some time," Yuri Ignat stressed.
10:52: The number of victims has risen to 18 dead, including 3 children, the head of the Kyiv OVA said.
10:32: According to preliminary information, as of now, there are 17 dead, including 2 children, said the head of the Kyiv OVA Oleksiy Kuleba.
· According to Oleksiy Kuleba, it is known about 29 wounded, including 15 children.
10:12 Head of the National Police: As a result of the plane crash in Brovary, the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine was killed: the Minister, the First Deputy Minister and the Secretary of State. They were in a SES helicopter.
· A total of 16 deaths are known, including 2 children. There were 9 people on board the helicopter. 22 victims are in hospital, including 10 children.
10:05: The helicopter that fell in Brovary is intended for the needs of the State Emergency Service, said Yurii Ignat, a spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
09:58: 3 dead and 5 injured as a result of a helicopter crash are previously known, according to the Brovary Police Department.
09:22 Kyiv RMA: During the tragedy in Brovary, children and employees of the institution were in the kindergarten. So far, everyone has been evacuated. There are victims.
09:07: In Brovary in the Kyiv region, a helicopter fell near a kindergarten, and a fire broke out. People are being evacuated, kyiv region police spokeswoman Iryna Pryanishnikova said.
08:46: According to preliminary information, an aircraft object fell near one of the kindergartens in Brovary.
08:40: An explosion was heard in Brovary, Kyiv region.
January 17
23:51: In Bucha, there was a fire in the family of a small volunteer who raises money to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine
· Yaroslav is known in Bucha for regularly raising money together with friends to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine – just three days ago, they again donated a joint 1000 hryvnias for our defenders.
· Bucha City Council will help the family of little volunteer Yaroslav to restore the house.
SUMY
January 17
23:20 Sumy RMA: On January 17, the Russians hit the Sumy region 37 times.
· Three communities were under fire. Namely, Belopolskaya, Novoslobidsk, Krasnopilskaya.
POLTAVA
January 17
16:24 SBU press service: The SBU neutralized Russian agents in the Poltava region, which "hunted" HIMARS installations and S-300 complexes.
· They planned to set fire to the discovered equipment or transfer coordinates about it to Russian troops. For this, the curators promised their agents from $ 20 thousand.
· The traitors were two immigrants from eastern Ukraine, who were recruited by the representative of the so-called "DPR" Zipir. He has now been informed in absentia of suspicion.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka