This one is short t and without graphics, so I’m including it right here:
Graham
Ukraine – 1/16/2024 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
In Bohdan’s absence today, here are some timely reports that I’ve seen today.
Shootdowns of the Russian Spy Planes
At approximately 4:00 into his video, the “Latest Denys” shows a possible A50 flight pattern that would have brought the A50 within range of a Patriot battery that might have been located in southern Ukraine. Just before, there is a meme of the A50 searching for the Russian Black Sea Fleet Flagship, “Moskva.” In addition, Denys pointed out that the Il-22, the plane that was heavily damaged but able to land, is similar to the Il-22 that was shot down by the Wagner Group, during their march on Moscow in June 2023.
There is also an analysis from Ukrainska Pravda, that builds on a more detailed analysis from the Institute of the Study of War (ISW). Some takeaways:
· The risk of operating over the Sea of Azov has just increased for the Russians.
· The A50 supplies critical operational data for Russian land and air forces operating in southern Ukraine.
· “Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russia had only three A-50s in service out of a total of six prior to this strike.” Another was damaged by a Ukrainian drone last year, while operating from a base in Belarus.
· The electronic gear carried in the A50 is likely irreplaceable.
· The crew of an A50 is highly trained, and it will take years for Russia to replace them.
· Given that the Il-22 is a command plane, the crew of the Il-22 may have included senior Russian officers.
John Deere, Meet Elon Musk: SpaceX Satellites to Link Farm Giant’s Equipment/Wall Street Journal
Ukraine is a major market for John Deere tractors and tractor accessories. To support tractor sales, John Deere has deployed several service centers throughout Ukraine, staffed by highly trained technicians who are certified by John Deere. For these service centers to have access to real time data directly from the tractors will be a significant development in the recovery of Ukraine’s agricultural sector from the damage resulting from the war. Even though Ukraine has lost substantial production acreage due to the war, the volume of agricultural exports is now about the same as when the war started.
Some excerpts:
· “Illinois-based Deere has been investing billions of dollars in building out computer-assisted services for farmers, including software that allows herbicide sprayers to distinguish crops from weeds and driverless tractors to plow fields.”
· “Deere’s digital farming offerings enable farmers to monitor equipment remotely in their fields, troubleshoot problems without hauling tractors to repair shops and receive real-time data on soil, seeds and planting. Many farmers rely on wireless signals from land-based towers to use these digital services.”
· “About 30% of the acres farmed in the U.S. lack sufficient Wi-Fi service, according to Deere. Elsewhere in the world, the wireless deficit is even bigger. In Brazil, one of the world’s largest producers of soybeans, sugar cane, fruit and other farm commodities, more than 70% of the acres farmed lack adequate connectivity.” NOTE: Ukraine’s coverage is likely similar to Brazil’s.
· “At a recent SpaceX event, Musk described Starlink as supplemental to terrestrial internet service, not something that would replace it. “Starlink does really well for, like, low population density areas,” he said, according to a video of the talk SpaceX posted to X. “But it is really not going to be competitive in high-density cities.” “ NOTE: Same for Ukraine.
4 Books about the War/Financial Times
The 4 books covered in the Financial Times article are:
“Ukraine – The Forging of a Nation” by Yaroslav Hrytsak
“Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence” by Yaroslav Trofimov
“The Showman – Inside the Invasion That Shook the World and Made a Leader of Volodymyr Zelenskyy” by Simon Shuster
“Putin’s Exiles – Their Fight for a Better Russia” by Paul Starobin
Before reading these books, especially for those unfamiliar with the history of Ukraine, I would suggest reading “Borderland,” by Anna Reid, former Kyiv correspondent for the “Economist.”
“Borderland” is now in its 4th Edition, taking the reader up until just before the beginning of Russia’s latest invasion. The book provides insights into why Ukrainians are fighting, and why Ukraine will win. “Borderland was the first book I ever read about Ukraine, back in 2005, when it was in its 1st Edition.
As stated in amazon.com, “Inspired and informed by the author's own experiences in Ukraine, this is a history of a politically and culturally rich collection of borderlands. The word Ukraine means borderland and, for most of its history, the lands that make up Ukraine have been a collection of other countries' borders. Split between Russia and Poland in the 18th century, between Austria and Russia in the 19th century and between Russia, Poland, Romania and Czechoslovakia between World War I and II, before being swallowed whole by the Soviet Union in 1945, Ukrainians have never, until 1991, known anything approaching a state of their own.”
Anna’s latest book is entitled a “Nasty Little War – the Western Intervention Into the Russian Civil War,” about the intervention in Russia by the Western Powers at the end of WW-I. The objective of the intervention was to prevent the Bolsheviks from taking power in what was then Imperial Russia. It is a subject that fits Putin’s narrative, that Russia’s real war is with NATO.
Anna's new book seems interesting. I think a Graham reference got me to read "Always with Honor: The Memoirs of General Wrangel" where his White Army was defeated by the Red Army because western promises were not forthcoming. Thus we arrive 100 years later to the same place. One ought to see that appeasement has never worked and the world has paid a heavy price to try to contain tyrants. Wise moves have allowed a calmer world by showing US strength negated by a very foolish politician who seems weak promoting a mythical climate threat. Fear has never been a positive motivation.
A good series of articles yesterday on the 16th. I read them all...It seems the only area we disagree on is the Ukraine situation