Bob Homans February 4
20230204
Ukraine – 2/4 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
February 4, 2023
From my Kyiv Colleague
· He’s just back from Warsaw, where he said he observed more Ukrainian flags flying from buildings than Polish flags.
· To get to/from Warsaw, he had to take the bus, because he said that the trains are booked up for over 1 month in advance.
· All the businesses and commercial buildings on Central Kyiv’s main street, Kreshchatyk, now have generators.
· By continuing to conduct performances, the Kyiv Opera is doing its bit, to poke a finger in Russia’s eye. The shelters during war, that can be seen in the video, serve as cloakrooms in other times. The Opera House also has a generator. Going to the Kyiv Opera is one of the great joys of living in Kyiv.
The Case For A-10s & AC-130s
Everyone expects a new Russian offensive to begin in the next few weeks. This assessment is usually supported by the increase in the number of Russian troops in and around Ukraine, consisting primarily of regular troops, conscripts and even prisoners (although the supply of prisoners is reportedly drying up). In other words, Russia’s major military asset supporting plans for a new offensive is predicated on large numbers of soldiers, rather than superior advantage in artillery or equipment. Therefore, perhaps the immediate need to help Ukraine blunt the new Russian offensive are weapons designed to kill the enemy in large numbers. Enter the A-10 “Warthog” and the AC-130 “Specter” Gunship.
The Latest Denys presents an excellent analysis of the numbers that underpin Russia’s plans for a new offensive. It is all about Russian trying to leverage its advantage in people. Russia has likely lost much of its most modern equipment and, increasingly, Ukraine has the advantage in artillery. Ukraine has increased its capabilities, from the days of the early Russian offensive with the object of taking Kyiv, where Ukraine relied mostly on NLAWS, Javelins, Stingers and Byraktar drones. Additionally, thousands of Ukrainian servicemen are receiving training in the West, in combined arms operation and advanced infantry training.
President Biden recently announced that United States wouldn’t be supplying F-16s. Instead of F-16s, consideration by the Biden Administration should be given to fixed wing aircraft that would directly address not just Ukraine’s immediate problem, stopping what amounts to human wave attacks from the Russian Army in places like Bakhmut, designed not so much to take territory but force Ukraine to use up precious ammunition, and Russia’s primary weapon in a possible future offensive – people. At the same time what type of air asset can complement plans for Ukraine’s upcoming offensive, especially protecting tanks from the same kind of attacks that the Ukrainians mounted against Russian armor during the war’s early stages.
A-10s have several advantages, not just in the current actions around Bakhmut, Kreminna and Vulhudar, but as part of Ukraine’s plans for a Spring offensive, including:
· The A-10’s famous Gatling gun, firing depleted uranium bullets.
· Ability to launch a variety of anti-tank and anti-personnel missiles, including Hellfire.
· Ability to operate at night, giving Russian soldiers no respite.
· Ability to operate off unimproved runways, giving it flexibility to operate alongside both infantry and armor.
· Relative ease of maintenance, likely with a minimal supply train.
· Titanium “bathtub,” protecting both the pilot and most of the controls, along with self-sealing fuel tanks.
The AC-130 gunship might have more vulnerabilities than the A-10, especially to antiaircraft fire, but it is an extremely effective anti-personnel platform, using both a gatling gun and 40mm cannon, but it can also attack armor, troop concentrations and other structures using its 120mm cannon.
Ukraine should still get F-16s, put perhaps initially from European partners. After Ukraine defeats Russia, it will look to the West to provide more advanced fighters, including the F-22 and F-35, to discourage Russia from launching future assaults against Ukraine. The post-war military assistance Ukraine is going to require likely dwarfs the amount of support Ukraine has gotten, and will get, during the war.
Interview With Secretary Robert Gates
The interview was conducted by Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. Secretary Gates made several interesting observations, including:
· As others do, Gates believes that time is on Russia’s side.
· Therefore, Gates believes that the U.S. should be looking at delivering weapons to the Ukraine Theater as fast as possible, including using airlifts.
· Compared to 2014, when Gates described Putin as the “master of the long game,” his opinion of Putin seems to have diminished, especially because of Putin’s decision to launch a new invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Gates likely isn’t alone – it has been a while since I’ve heard a pundit describing Putin as a “chess master.”)
· Gates doesn’t believe Ukraine will join NATO, because he thinks that the U.S. Congress won’t approve anything that potentially obligates U.S. soldiers to fight in Ukraine (although Article 5 contains some significant loopholes).
· Gates recommends that Ukraine, along with assistance from NATO, should be looking at mutual-defense pacts with nearby countries, including Poland, the Baltics, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, and others. (There is already a de-facto mutual defense pact with Poland and the Baltics, where Latvia is providing almost 50% of its defense budget to Ukraine, and neighboring countries also making outsized commitments)
News From the Battlefield – Kreminna
“Reporting From Ukraine” covers the back and forth fighting on the outskirts of Kreminna, including the increased use of HIMARS to take out Russian positions guarding the entrance to Kreminna. Ukraine being able to take Kreminna would make sustaining Russian operations in and around Bakhmut much more difficult, because Kreminna sits on Russia’s major north-south supply route.
Russia is also making increased use of HIMARS around Bakhmut. The HIMARS launch vehicle has a top speed of nearly 100 kilometers/hour, making it easy to quickly move a HIMARS vehicle between Kreminna and Bakhmut. HIMARS missiles have a range of up to 80 kilometers.
2/4 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 11:00 AM February 3 to 12:00 noon February 4, 2022
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
February 3
23:49: U.S. imposes sanctions on eight executives of Iranian drone manufacturer
· "Iran is supplying UAVs for Russian combat operations in order to strike critical infrastructure in Ukraine," U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said in a statement.
· The manufacturing company Paravar Pars was already under sanctions, but today the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the company's Board of Directors.
23:35 CNN: U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland has announced that assets confiscated from a sanctioned Russian oligarch will go to help Ukraine.
· He said this during a meeting with Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin at the US Department of Justice.
· "Today I announce that I have authorized the first-ever transfer of confiscated Russian assets for use in Ukraine. These confiscated assets appeared after I announced in April last year that I had indicted Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev on charges of sanctions evasion," Garland said.
23:04: Ukraine should receive the Navy from the West
· Such a statement was made by Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andrii Melnyk in an interview with the German TV channel Welt.
· "Not only aviation, but also the navy should be created in Ukraine. Germany has a lot of opportunities to equip the Ukrainian fleet. It will take months, or maybe years, but we have to start," Melnyk said.
22:05: The United States leaves Ukraine's discretion to use long-range projectiles to strike Crimea.
· This was stated by Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder at a briefing.
21:42 Bloomberg: Germany and Sweden are negotiating a new weapons package under which Stockholm will transfer missiles and launchers for IRIS-T systems to Ukraine.
21:30: The European Union will supply Ukraine with 2 gigawatts of electricity it needs, said EC Chairman Ursula von der Leyen:
"Initially, Ukraine supplied electricity to the European Union. Now the situation has changed - Ukraine needs electricity. And we're going to supply you with 2 gigawatts of electricity that you need."
21:19: The EU allocates the first €1 billion for the rapid reconstruction of Ukraine, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
· According to her, it is necessary not only to maintain the energy infrastructure damaged by Russian strikes, but also to restore civilian infrastructure.
20:55: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak.
· "We hope that the agreements reached on the supply of Western armored vehicles to Ukraine will soon bring the first results. The creation of a tank coalition is not only about strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also about accelerating the liberation of Ukrainian territories," the President said.
19:40 Reuters: EU countries have reached an agreement to impose a ceiling on prices for petroleum products from Russia at $ 100 per barrel traded at a premium and $ 45 per barrel traded at a discount.
19:29 The Copenhagen Post: Denmark will send more than a thousand generators to Nikolaev.
· "This week it was announced that thanks to Denmark's cooperation with UNOPS — the UN Office for Infrastructure Improvement — about 50,000 houses in the Mykolaiv region will be heated.
· 13 mobile boiler houses have already been sent, and by the summer more than 1000 generators and other important equipment will arrive," the report says.
19:14: The United States is officially providing another major military assistance package for Ukraine, according to journalist Jack Detch.
· "The United States is sending Ukraine a new $ 2.2 billion military assistance package, which includes Javelin anti-tank missiles, artillery ammunition, as well as conventional and long-range missiles for HIMARS," he said.
18:50 CNN: The Pentagon spotted a Chinese spy balloon over the U.S.
· According to a Pentagon spokesman, Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, the espionage balloon has been observed for several days as it flew over the northern part of the United States.
· They decided not to shoot him down yet, so that the wreckage did not cause significant damage.
17:32: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the scope of restrictions under the tenth package of sanctions against Russia will be 10 billion euros.
· "Russia and Russian society are already paying a high price due to the sanctions imposed. The tenth package of sanctions is being prepared, we intend to introduce it by February 24."
15:52 The Times of Israel: Israel is ready to supply Ukraine with "military things."
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced such intentions in a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, the publication writes, citing informed sources.
· The Israeli Prime Minister also stressed that he would not insist on the role of a mediator in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia "until Russia, Ukraine and the United States ask for it."
15:22 Head of EU diplomacy: The EU will provide Ukraine with 25 million euros for demining potentially dangerous territories.
14:37: Ambassador of Ukraine Yevgen Korniychuk brought the remains of Iranian drones to Israel to demonstrate a common threat to both countries.
· "With the permission of our Ministry of Defense, I brought from Ukraine the remains of an Iranian drone, which the Russians marked as "Geran-2", in order to show the Israeli people that tomorrow you can be attacked by the same drones," the ambassador said on the air of a local TV channel.
12:36 Daily NK: The North Korean government has ordered its trading companies in Russia to select personnel to be sent to the occupied territories of Ukraine for restoration work and security in the region.
12:13 Politico: The German government has approved the supply of 88 of its Leopard 1 tanks to Kyiv.
· According to the publication, citing government sources, Berlin approved the plans of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to sell old tanks to Kiev after their repair for a total of more than 100 million euros.
12:03 Czech President: Ukraine needs to transfer all types of weapons except nuclear weapons to defend against Russian aggression.
· "Ukraine cannot fight such a strong adversary without armored technology, UAVs, artillery and long-range missiles, and possibly without supersonic aircraft," Pavel said in an interview with AFP.
11:41: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in a television interview with Pierce Morgan on TalkTV, did not reject the possibility of sending fighter jets to Ukraine in the future.
· "We are constantly in dialogue with our Ukrainian friends about how best to help them. However, in the case of these fighters, it should be remembered that these are very complex vehicles that require months or even years of training," Sunak said.
11:22: In Lithuania, €1 million was raised in an hour for radar for Ukraine, and IT company Tesonet decided to double this amount, according to Lithuanian journalist Andrius Tapinas.
· As of now, Lithuanians have already raised €5.3 million.
NATIONAL
February 3
23:19 Energoatom: Ukraine is cooperating with the IAEA on the cash demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the installation of a 30-kilometer safety zone around the station to prevent a nuclear catastrophe that threatens the entire continent.
21:52: Ukraine has implemented 99% of the recommendations from the EU, said Fedor Venislavsky, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
· "By the end of 2022, Ukraine has demonstrated positive results in the adoption of laws and the implementation of reforms according to the recommendations of the European Union. The response to Ukraine's changes on the path of integration into the European Union was the Ukraine-EU summit, which took place in Kyiv today," he said.
20:47: The EU officially supported the Ukrainian formula for peace, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said
· "The situation at the front is difficult, especially in the Donetsk direction. But, even despite this, the fighters give Ukraine good news," the President added.
· The President also announced new personnel changes and new sanctions of the National Security and Defense Council against pro-Russian figures.
19:05: "During the 24th Ukraine-European Union Summit, which took place in Kyiv, our country reaffirmed its determination to start eu accession talks as soon as possible and looks forward to appropriate decisions from the European Commission and the European Council."
18:18: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In Bilovodsk, Luhansk region, the Russians set up a Central District Hospital for a military hospital and brought up to 120 wounded servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation there.
· The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdievsky and Novopavlovsk directions, suffers heavy losses in personnel and military equipment.
· To replenish its losses in manpower, the enemy continues a recruiting campaign among prisoners.
· Over the past week, up to 1000 mercenaries have been recruited in correctional institutions of the Novosibirsk region of the Russian Federation.
· During the current day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 4 strikes on the areas of concentration of the enemy and 1 - on the position of its air defense system.
· At the same time, units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck 2 areas of concentration of manpower of the Russian troops.
18:02 ZN. UA: Adviser to the former Deputy Minister of Defense Kostiantyn Slyusarev is suspected of misappropriation of more than UAH 1.7 billion intended for the purchase of goods for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
17:15: President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen visited the Ukrposhta branch in Kyiv to inspect how, with EU support, Ukrainians light bulbs will be exchanged for more energy-efficient ones.
16:06 Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "Today's Ukraine-EU summit is an important symbol that we will overcome any obstacles to strengthening our partnership and integration.
· Our goal is absolutely clear: the beginning of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the European Union. We will not lose a single day in our work for the rapprochement of Ukraine and the EU."
15:37: Up to 9 Russian ships are on alert in the Black Sea.
· According to the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians deployed 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and 10 in the Mediterranean, of which 5 are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, the total volley of which is 72 missiles.
14:22 Head of the Ministry of Digital Transformation: Ukrainians will be able to continue to talk with loved ones in Europe at the rates of the European free roaming zone. No overpayments.
· In addition, the EU is ready to approve the updated Annex 17-3. This will be a powerful step towards free roaming with Europe on an ongoing basis.
· The ministry also continues to work on the launch of 5G in Ukraine.
11:32 SBU press service: The SSU exposed the leadership of the Central Military Medical Commission on receiving bribes from evaders.
· The Deputy Head of the Central Military Medical Commission of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for various amounts of bribes "offered" men to evade military service under martial law.
· SBU officers documented the fact of extortion of 5 thousand rubles. USD. from a conscript.
· During searches at the place of work and in the defendant's household, the amount of seized funds is equivalent to more than UAH 5 million.
MORDOR (russia)
February 3
12:24 British intelligence: The recruitment of prisoners in the Wagner PMC has slowed down significantly.
· Intelligence is starting from the data of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service of January 31. In accordance with them, the number of prisoners in the Russian Federation is 433 thousand. people - 6000 less compared to November 2022.
· At the same time, from September to November 2022, the number of prisoners decreased by 23 thousand.
· The reason for the reduction in the scale of recruitment in British intelligence is considered to be the conflict between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
11:12 Operational Command South: This morning, two surface rocket carriers with 16 Kalibr-type missiles are ready for use this morning.
· "In addition, the maneuvers of the ship group themselves speak of preparations for entering the combat course," natalia Gumeniuk stressed.
10:35: Ukrainian intelligence intercepted a conversation between a Russian soldier who was reporting to his commander about the situation on the front lines.
· Due to poor support and failures at the front, the Russian military is already telling commanders that they are leaving their positions and going home.
KHARKIV
February 3
10:51: Today, around 8:00 in Izyum, 7 teenagers (3 boys and 4 girls) aged 14-17 found a fragment of an anti-personnel mine "petal". One of the teenagers lifted a mine off the ground and threw it next to the others. Mina detonated.
· As a result of the explosion, all children received shrapnel wounds. Their condition is satisfactory. Nevertheless, 5 of them were still hospitalized in the Izyum hospital. Currently, their lives are not threatened.
22:19 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kramatorsk.
DONETSK
February 3
7:55: People who are still staying in Sloviansk are better off leaving the city, mayor Vadim Lyakh said.
· According to him, the city has electricity, gas, water, no food problems. But the situation can worsen at any time:
· "Now we see that the front line is slow, but approaching. And, of course, this is a danger to all cities nearby. And already knowing from the experience of the summer period of the enemy's offensive actions, the closer the front line is, the more shelling there will be, the frequency will increase, and, accordingly, the danger will also increase.
4:57: National Guardsmen shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft near Bakhmut, the National Guard of Ukraine said.
· The National Guard also notes that in the Bakhmut direction, the Russians are partially losing their combat capability and air superiority, and only last week the Mi-24 helicopter and the Su-25 aircraft were destroyed.
11:54 President's Office: Russian troops artillery shelling the city of Toretsk, Donetsk region.
· The President's Office said the shells had targeted the city center. The victims are currently unknown.
16:31 Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office: 1 person was killed, 6 were injured as a result of today's shelling of Toretsk.
· Houses, cars, and a store were damaged. The village of Kurakhivka also came under fire. 2 women and 1 man were wounded.
11:00: Donetsk RMA: In Donetsk sector, 2 shellings on Kurakhove, chaotic shelling on Avdiivka and isolated shelling of the Mariinsky community were recorded , information about the victims was not received.
· 1 person was killed and 2 wounded in Bakhmut. A high-rise building, a private house and a shop were damaged in the city. The tense situation remains in the Soledar community: under fire, Paraskoviivka, Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka are without casualties.
DNIPRO
February 3
14:06: The SBU exposed Russian agents who were scouting the positions of special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and preparing terrorist attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the SBU said.
· According to the investigation, the agent group was headed by a former employee of the local unit of the disbanded police, whom the Russian special service recruited long before the start of a full-scale invasion.
KHERSON
February 3
17:47: The SBU announces criminal charges against the ex-head of the Kherson OVA. The suspicion was declared under two articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine:
- p. 3 art. 358 (forgery of documents, seals, stamps and forms, sale or use of forged documents, seals, stamps);
- - ch. 4 art. 190 (fraud).
- The sanction of the articles provides for imprisonment for up to twelve years with confiscation of property.
16:43 press service of Ukrposhta: As of February 3, 99% of Ukrposhta branches resumed their work in the de-occupied part of the Kherson region.
· In February, three more inpatient departments were opened - in Kherson, Vysokopillya and Novoraysk, as well as two mobile ones serving Velykooleksandrivsky and Kherson districts.
14:48 Social Networks: In Kherson, the sounds of explosions are heard again.
12:45 Social Networks: Explosions are also heard in Kherson.
MYKOLAIV
February 3
12:43 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv region.
ODESA
February 3
21:07 DTEK: Part of Odesa was left without electricity due to an emergency shutdown of the high-voltage line.
· Without light, both critical infrastructure and ordinary homes are now. Power engineers are already working on the return of electricity.
12:50: The SBI discovered Russian fertilizers worth UAH 9 million at Odesa customs.
· According to the press service of the department, 136 tons of mineral fertilizers arrived in Ukraine before February 24, 2022 in the "transit" mode.
· Currently, the goods have been seized, the issue of its further transfer to the Agency for Tracing and Management of Assets (ARMA) is being resolved.
KYIV
February 3
20:11: 60 days of detention.
· This measure of restraint was chosen by the Shevchenko court in Kyiv for two young men who organized drunken parties in the capital and posted humiliating videos with girls on the Internet.
· According to the head of the Kyiv Regional Police, the pre-trial investigation is ongoing.
17:05: The explosions heard by some residents of Kyiv are, according to preliminary information, the explosion of ice on the Desna River.
14:52: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko showed journalists of German newspapers BILD a crater that remained in the capital after a Russian Dagger missile hit.
· "She left behind a crater a few meters deep. This type of air defense missile cannot shoot down yet," Klitschko said.
SUMY
February 3
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
www.ubn.news