Ukraine – 2/28 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
February 28, 2023
The Unmasking
To my recipients, today’s Webinar revealed the identity of my collaborator, Bohdan Chomiak. Starting today, Bohdan gets equal billing.
The Webinar
For those of you who are interested, today’s “One Year + 5 Days” was recorded. It will be available in the coming days.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” analyses a possible Russian air & ground assault from bases located in the Belgorod/Kursk area of the Russian Federation toward northern Ukraine. The prediction is that it will be Russia’s “Götterdämmerung.”
However, in the “Latest Denys,” the Russian spy plane, their answer to AWACS, damaged in an attack on an airfield in Belarus, likely by Belarusian partisans, was not heavily damaged. Denys also reports on the deteriorating situation in Bakhmut.
Latest Lawrence Freedman
As is usually the case, Freedman wraps up everything nicely, in the last paragraph(s) –
“Whatever happens Moscow will face awkward choices – about what portion of a declining GDP must now be devoted to rebuilding the military or whether it is worth walking away from the most hard-line positions to get sanctions eased. There are a range of possibilities. A definitive conclusion to the fighting is not impossible, although this would require Ukrainian armed forces to enjoy remarkable victories. There could be a reappraisal in Moscow, as with Argentina after the Falklands War, when the cause is not questioned but the folly of attempting to resolve it by force of arms is acknowledged. A formal cease-fire and truce might turn into an opportunity to repair relations or an uneasy but durable peace, as with the North Korean armistice of almost seven decades ago, though that is still seen as a potential flash point for a wider war. It is as likely that a period of calm will be seen as an opportunity for rebuilding forces and preparing for the next round. Alternatively, the conflict may rumble on for years, with or without much fighting. Ukraine will therefore still be seeking security guarantees, inside or outside NATO. And even if the fighting subsides and reconstruction can begin there will be more hard choices to be made about how to revive the economy.”
“All these choices and possibilities are worth thinking about. But how they arise will depend on Ukraine’s success in meeting the more immediate challenges it faces. As is often the case with strategy, getting the short-term choices right makes the long-term choices easier. One step at a time.”
The next major development will hinge upon Ukraine’s expected offensive, and their ability to take back most or all the territory they’ve lost, at a minimum the territory lost sine Feb. 24, 2022. The outcome of this offensive may largely determine if Ukraine can achieve victory this year. The equipment and supplies that the West has either delivered or is in transit since the start of 2023, amounts to approximately 2/3rds of all the equipment that Ukraine has supplied since the start of Russia’s latest invasion.
It is reasonable to assume that time is on Russia’s side. Weapons supplies from the West are already being stretched. In the U.S., politicians are asking tough questions of the Biden Administration, mostly around Pres. Biden’s favorite promise, “We’ll be supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.” What sense does it make to slow walk weapons deliveries, when the effect of “as long as it takes” might end up being longer than otherwise necessary to ensure Ukraine’s victory?
At the point when Ukraine is likely to start its offensive, Ukraine will have no fixed-wing aircraft from the West and some tanks. Most significantly Ukraine will have many infantry fighting vehicles, especially Bradleys and Strykers from the U.S., and a large and varied amount of anti-aircraft equipment. In both the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives last Fall, Ukraine made excellent use of the infantry fighting vehicles that they had at the time, mostly Soviet but also some older American models. There is likely too much emphasis from the pundits on tanks and F-16s, and the lack thereof, and not enough on Bradleys and Strykers.
By mid-Summer, it is likely that the prospect of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 will become clearer.
2/28/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon February 27 to 12:00 noon February 28, 2023
Statue of Liberty - French Embassy to the United States courtesy of a friend.
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
February 28
11:52: Japan has imposed sanctions against 48 people and more than 90 organizations from the Russian Federation, - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan.
· Their assets in Japan will be frozen, and financial transactions will be limited.
· The sanctions list includes the president of the Kalashnikov concern Alan Lushnikov and the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Viktor Goremykin, a number of employees of the General Staff, and employees of the administration of the President of Russia.
08:04 Polish Radio: Poland may stop border traffic with Belarus, says Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland Maciej Wonsik.
08:03 Voice of America: Foreign ministers of the world's 40 largest economies will meet in New Delhi from March 1-2 amid a war waged by Russia in Ukraine and rising tensions between the United States and China.
08:02 Telex: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán spoke on Monday at the opening of the regular session of parliament, where he voiced a number of contradictory narratives about Russia's war against Ukraine. The opposition called him an agent of the Russian Federation.
00:57: 73-year-old Norwegian Chietil Krane turns on the air alarm siren daily near the house where Russian diplomats live.
· "I want to wake them up in a double sense. Both physically and by the fact that they are jointly responsible for this war," he says.
· At the same time, Chietil realizes that he is violating Norwegian law and is ready to pay a fine or be arrested.
00:27 Voice of America: The U.S. Federal Communications Commission and Ukrainian regulator in electronic communications have signed a memorandum of partnership at the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona.
· The agreement provides for cooperation in the areas of 5G, security and infrastructure recovery.
· The American side stressed the importance of the agreement in the context of the fact that Ukrainian telecommunications infrastructure has suffered greatly as a result of Russian aggression.
February 27
22:50: The EU has extended sanctions against Belarus for another year.
· The relevant statement is published on the website of the European Council.
22:35 World media about Ukraine February 27:
· The New York Times: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Kyiv without announcing the visit. During the trip, Yellen announced the transfer of $ 1.25 billion in assistance to Ukraine.
· The Washington Post: The UN Human Rights Council begins a meeting condemning Russian aggression. The UN's role in holding Moscow accountable for war crimes should be a key topic of debate. A delegation from Moscow will participate in the meeting as an observer.
· The Guardian: According to the publication, Belarusian partisans claim to have blown up a Russian plane near Minsk. They claim to have seriously damaged a Russian military plane. And the opposition leader called the event "the most successful sabotage" since the beginning of the war.
21:37: Poland plans to transfer to Ukraine another 10 Leopard 2 tanks and 60 T-72 and PT-91 Twardy tanks in a few weeks.
· This was reported by the RAR with reference to the statement of the head of the office of the Prime Minister of Poland Michal Dvorczyk.
· "They (ed. - tanks) are practically in the process of transfer, so they will soon be in Ukraine," Dvorchyk added.
19:50: Earlier, RomaniaInsider reported that Wizz Air was suspending all flights to Moldova from March 14, citing a press release from the company.
· However, the company said on Twitter that it did not have such information, urging it to monitor the situation on their official website.
17:11 Times of Israel: Netanyahu's government has given the green light to the death penalty bill for terrorists.
· The Ministerial Legislative Committee supported the document. It will soon be submitted for preliminary reading at the Knesset plenum and then discussed by the high-level security cabinet.
16:06: The EU has ordered sanctioned Russians to report their assets to block them, according to the official EU magazine.
· The European Council obliged all persons and organizations included in the sanctions lists to notify regulators of their assets in the EU countries within six weeks.
13:51: A magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred in eastern Turkey.
· According to the Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the earthquake was recorded in the province of Malatya. At least one death toll is known. Many injured and still under the rubble
13:21: The Chinese "peace plan" puts the victim and the aggressor on the same level, EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell said on the official website of the European Union.
· "This is not really a peace plan, and it basically repeats China's well-known positions, some of which we share and important ones are absent. Of course, we will analyze it, but it is already clear that the key problem is that it does not distinguish the aggressor too much from the victim, putting the parties on the same level," Borrell wrote.
NATIONAL
February 28
11:12 The Independent- SBU General Malyuk: Since the beginning of the war, the Security Service of Ukraine has opened more than 64,000 criminal proceedings against the Russian military, almost half of them for war crimes.
· The SBU also exposed about 360 enemy agents and last year repelled 4.5 thousand cyberattacks.
· The head of the SBU addressed a message to Putin: "I, like any Ukrainian, have no illusions about Putin and his motives. Therefore, my message to him is simple: you will never win or destroy us."
10:51 Mykolaiv RMA – Vitaliy Kim: Russia has been ready for a massive attack by Ukraine since Friday, but is postponing it. He called on Ukrainians to "be ready for anything."
· "The Russians are technically ready to strike. For some reason, the Russians are carrying out strikes, but still they are preparing for it and preparing more densely, scouting and changing tactics," he said.
07:10 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· "Russia focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions. Last day, our soldiers repulsed more than 60 enemy attacks in these areas.
· At the same time, the enemy inflicted 8 missile and 32 air strikes. He carried out 85 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems."
· Russians restrict the movement of civilians in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· In particular, entry into the settlement of Promin is allowed only to citizens with local registration and with a special pass.
· During the past day, units of the Defense Forces destroyed 11 Iranian strike UAVs of the "Shahed-136" type and 1 - of the "Hall" type - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Ukrainian aviation inflicted 4 strikes on areas of concentration of Russians. And units of rocket troops and artillery struck one control point, two areas of concentration of Russian manpower and two air defense positions.
00:12: New interception of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine :
· The military of the Russian Federation tells about the significant losses of personnel in the unit at the border of Gorlovka-Klishchievka.
February 27
23:30 Ex-minister Pivovarsky: NABU asks the court to grant bail of UAH 20 million in the case of abuse of power.
· Former Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Andriy Pyvovarsky stressed that he categorically disagrees with what is set out in the notice of suspicion and in the petition for the election of a preventive measure.
23:20 Voice of America: Ukrainian intelligence chief Kirill Budanov believes that China will not yet agree to supply weapons to Russia.
· "As of today, I do not think that China will agree to the transfer of weapons to Russia. I don't see any signs showing that even such things are being discussed,"
· Russia is not ready for war for decades due to limited resources, said Kirill Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate.
· "In fact, their resources are very limited. And in time and in volume. And they know about it very well," Budanov said.
22:30: In the Black Sea, the Russians increased their grouping to 12 units. Rocket carriers - 2. Total volley - 8 "calibers".
· This was reported by the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
21:51 Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
· "The day began with an attack by Iranian drones. Most of them managed to bring down. Eleven out of fourteen.
· Unfortunately, there were hits. Three employees of the State Emergency Service in Khmelnytskyi were wounded and two were killed. My condolences to the families."
· "Actually, first of all, that is why we need an aviation component of air defense - modern combat aircraft, so that we can protect the entire territory of our state from Russian terror.
· "Our pilots, together with our anti-aircraft gunners, together with all the soldiers and specialists of our Air Force, are already doing a great job.
· But we will be able to fully protect the sky when the aviation taboo in relations with our partners is removed."
21:26 ESPRESO: Almost the entire Ukraine was "provided" with drugs: the police detained 37 participants of the Kryvyi Rih drug cartel.
· More than 1200 law enforcement officers conducted a special operation and detained members of the criminal community "Twenty", including ten leaders.
20:55: The USA transferred the first tranche of direct budget assistance in the amount of UAH 1.2 billion to Ukraine. dollars, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.
· "This is the first tranche of approximately $10 billion in direct budget assistance that the United States will provide in the coming months," Yellen said.
20:41: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny had a telephone conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley.
· "He actualized the need to strengthen the capabilities of the air defense system of Ukraine, including through the provision of F-16 multipurpose combat aircraft.
20:28: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Minister of Finance of the United States of America Janet Yellen in Kyiv.
· "Further tightening of sanctions is needed to deprive Russia of the opportunity to finance the war," the president wrote after the meeting.
20:20 ESPRESO: budget deficit - $38 billion, the United States will allocate more than $ 10 billion by September.
· Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also reminded that the United States supports Ukraine in the direction of a speedy recovery, so it allocates $ 1.5 billion. for these purposes, as well as another UAH 1.1 billion to support the rapid recovery of the energy sector of Ukraine and Moldova, "where the main part, of course, is supposed to support Ukraine's energy sector."
18:24 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 February 27:
· "During the current day, the enemy has inflicted 8 missile and 28 air strikes, 12 of them with Iranian strike UAVs of the Shahed-136 type. He carried out more than 55 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· The main efforts are focused on the conduct of offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions, increases the number of personnel.
· "According to available information, up to 200 conscripts from the Rostov region have been transferred to the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk region."
· To provide medical assistance to its servicemen, he actively uses local infrastructure in the temporarily occupied territories.
· So, in the village of Kalanchak, a military hospital is equipped on the basis of a local hospital.
· About 150 wounded servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have already been brought there. According to available information, the medical staff are exclusively Russians."
· "The enemy continues to take measures to discredit the Defense Forces of Ukraine and intimidate residents of the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region.
· The enemy again fired mortars at residential areas of the settlement of Oleshky and blamed the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
· "The aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted 4 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.
· Also, our soldiers for the current day destroyed 9 of the 12 Iranian strike UAVs of the "Shahed-136" type and 1 - of the "Zala" type.
· "Units of the missile forces and artillery struck one control point, one area of concentration of enemy manpower, and one air defense position."
17:30: Chairman of Ukrzaliznytsia Oleksandr Kamyshin resigns.
· "According to the joint decision with Deputy Prime Minister Kubrakov, I will head the European integration office of Ukrzaliznytsia in Europe," Kamyshin said.
12:37: The Russians have gathered a certain amount of assault aircraft near the borders with Ukraine and will try to use it in key areas.
· This was told by the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Chernyak.
· According to him, the Ukrainian of air defense is increasing every day. And if the Air Force has learned to shoot down Russian missiles and drones, aircraft will be an easier target for them.
Mordor - russia
February 28
10:21: Approximate plan of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Crimea.
· The plan was shown by former U.S. Army Europe Commander Ben Hodges.
· He proposes to initially inflict long-range strikes on military infrastructure and on the bases of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Then some targets were hit by drones and in the third place to introduce Ukrainian troops into the peninsula.
09:22 Russian Media: Tonight, drones stuffed with explosives attacked the Rosneft oil depot in the Krasnodar Territory.
· Two drones damaged the boiler room building next to the oil storage facility in Tuapse. After the explosion, there were two craters one and a half meters deep.
09:07: Two major cities of the temporarily occupied Crimea were left without water.
· The accident on the main water supply system left more than 120 thousand residents of Yevpatoria in Crimea without water, classes in schools were canceled, local authorities said. What the accidents are connected with is not reported.
· It is planned to fully restore the water supply in Evpatoria by 6 am on March 1, - the so-called "head of administration" Elena Demidova.
08:39: The Russian army loses up to 25000 soldiers in Ukraine in a month - this is like the average army in European countries, - spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuri Ignat.
· According to him, the Russians have moved to a creeping offensive in the eastern direction, but the price of this is total.
00:05: Russia Today France declares bankruptcy.
· The head of the Kremlin-backed propaganda television company RT France, Ksenia Fedorova, said in the Commercial Court of Nanterre that the payments had been suspended and asked to open a "judicial procedure for liquidation."
February 27
18:35 espreso: Lukashenko says Belarus, together with Russia, will be able to "produce any type of weapon."
· Self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko said the country was producing enough weapons for the needs of the Belarusian army. According to him, the country receives all the necessary iron from Russia, and the production of microelectronics has remained since the days of the Soviet Union.
18:09: Radio Svoboda journalists released a satellite image of a Russian plane at an airfield in Belarus where the explosions occurred.
· Using the Planet service. com obtained a satellite image and location coordinates of the Russian military long-range radar detection aircraft A-50, which may have been blown up yesterday.
· A picture taken on February 19, 2023, shows where the aircraft may have been at the time of the incident.
16:36: Shares of TCS Group ("Tinkoff") fell nearly 13% at the start of trading on the Mosbirge after EU sanctions were imposed.
16:21: On the eighth anniversary of the murder of Boris Nemtsov, Muscovites carry flowers to the Great Moskvoretsky Bridge, writes SOTA.
· The publication also reports that a girl was detained at the rally, who put a poster "Boris" at the memorial.
13:06 British intelligence: Explosions in Mariupol have destroyed the Russians' perception of the inaccessibility of the city for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· "Although Mariupol was significantly destroyed at the beginning of the war, it is important for Russia because it is the largest city captured by Russia in 2022, which it still controls, and is also located on a key logistics route."
11:56 Information Security Center: Russian media have distributed a fake "document" that say that the Zelensky regime is in full swing preparing for an invasion of Transnistria.
KHARKIV
February 27
12:11 Kharkiv RMA: In Vovchansk, one of the shells hit a private courtyard.
· A 73-year-old man received a shrapnel wound. Hospitalized in a state of moderate severity.
· In the village of Kurylivka, Kupyansk district, a private house and a garage were damaged by shelling.
LUHANSK
February 28
08:52 Institute for the Study of War: Russians increase pressure on the front line in Luhansk region.
· In recent weeks, Russian troops have intensified hostilities in the Svativ, Kremin and Bilohoriv directions and are concentrating equipment and reserves in the occupied Luhansk region. Analysts note that near Vuhledar, Russians are reducing the pace of the offensive.
DONETSK
February 28
10:35 Donetsk RMA: At night, Russians shelled Svyatogorsk, targeted part of the State Emergency Service – according to preliminary information, 1 rescuer was killed and 4 others were wounded.
09:50: The situation in the Bakhmut area is extremely tense, - Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Colonel-General
· "Despite significant losses, the enemy threw the most prepared Wagner assault units on the offensive, trying to break through the defenses of our troops and surround the city," - Alexander Syrsky.
February 27
13:36: In the city of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, the situation is becoming more and more complicated every day. The Russians are constantly shelling the city, Ukrainian volunteer said.
ZAPORIZHIA
February 27
22:45: Dnipro and Zaporizhia - two UAVs were destroyed, said the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak.
20:34 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhia.
DNIPRO
February 28
09:35 Dnipro RMA: That night, the Russians hit Nikopol three times with heavy artillery. It has passed without casualties, but there is destruction.
· A hotel, 3 private houses, an outbuilding and a car were damaged in the city. Selected power lines.
February 27
22:16 Dnipro RMA: In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the work of air defense was confirmed.
· two enemy UAVs have already been destroyed there.
21:43 Social Networks: A second explosion was heard in Dnipro.
21:32 Social Networks: An explosion is heard in Dnipro.
21:17 Dnipro RMA: The Russians again shelled the Nikopol district with artillery.
· "A dozen houses were damaged. And 4 more outbuildings, several cars, a gas pipeline. It passed without casualties," Lysak wrote.
21:05 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
KHERSON
February 28
11:33: One person was killed and one was injured in another Russian shelling of Kherson, according to the head of the Separate Subdivision Andriy Yermak.
· As a result of the shelling, a private residential building was destroyed.
11:01 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson,
10:05 Kherson RMA: Russians hit Kherson region 119 times
· Kherson itself was shelled by the Russian army 18 times – it was beaten on residential areas of the city. Enemy shells targeted the school, private and apartment buildings. 3 civilians were injured.
09:41 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
February 27
15:51: The SBU, together with the SBI, detained the former heads of the Russian torture chamber, which operated during the occupation of Kherson, the SBU press service said.
· Among the detainees are the former deputy head of the local penal colony, the head of the "department of communal, quartermaster and economic support" of the former Russian prison.
· Another traitor previously worked in the Kherson pre-trial detention center, but after February 24 last year he agreed to the proposal of the occupiers to join the "department of protection of the colony".
19:32 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
13:40 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
12:24 Kherson RMA: Kherson CHP (Centralized Heat and Power Station), resumed work, heat is returned to the houses.
· The Kherson CHP, damaged by Russian shelling, resumed work, and heat supply began to be returned to the homes of civilians.
ODESA
February 27
23:05 DTEK: Odesa's power supply has been fully restored after the accident.
· "In four hours, the power engineers managed to completely return the power to the residents of Odessa and the Odessa district immediately after the completion of the repair of Ukrenergo's equipment," the company said.
12:50 SBU press service: The SBU neutralized the FSB agent network in Odesa: among the detainees is an assistant to a sanctioned deputy from Crimea.
· The perpetrators explored the locations of strategically important objects of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine.
· They also corrected Russian missile strikes on critical infrastructure in the region, including energy generating companies.
KYIV
February 28
07:22 espreso: From today, a new notification system will be tested in Kyiv.
· "During testing, loud monotonous signal sounds, voice messages about testing and the national anthem of Ukraine will be turned on," the mayor's office said.
· Testing will take place on the territory of the Desnyansky district (northeastern part of the city) from 9 am on Tuesday to Wednesday evening.
CHERNIHIV
February 27
11:55: Chernihiv is returning street lighting tomorrow, acting mayor Oleksandr Lomako said.
· According to him, the Regional Defense Council under the OVA, which previously imposed a moratorium on street lighting, gave permission to turn on the lights on the streets of the city.
SUMY
February 28
00:42 Sumy RMA: Russian troops once again shelled the Sumy region, a total of 86 "arrivals" were recorded.
· "During the day, the Russians shelled 6 territorial communities of the region: Belopolskaya, Shalyginskaya, Novoslobidsk, Krasnopilskaya, Seredno-Budskaya, Glukhovskaya," the message says.
February 27
17:48 Operational Command North: Today, Russians fired mortars at the border area of the Sumy region.
· "There are no casualties among personnel and equipment. There was no information about losses among the local population or damage to civilian infrastructure."
14:06: Law enforcement officers are looking for saboteurs in Sumy region and ask residents to treat this with understanding, the SBU office in Sumy region said in a statement.
· Such actions are aimed at preventing and neutralizing threats of intelligence and subversive activities against Ukraine.
· In addition, citizens are asked to report suspicious persons to the SBU office in Sumy region. This can be done by phone: 0891-200-533 or reported to the management email address: usbu_sum@ssu.gov.ua.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka