Bob Homans February 13
20230214
Ukraine – 2/13 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
February 13, 2023
News From the Battlefield
Today, my collaborator said the following from his perch in Kyiv, “It’s starting to feel like before the breakthrough in Kherson.”
I think he was referring to the timeline last summer. Last summer, after Ukraine withdrew from Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in June and July 2022, and inflicting large losses on Russia in the process, Ukraine began 2 offensives at roughly the same time, late August and early September, in both the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The result of both offensives was liberation of a substantial amount of Ukrainian territory.
Maybe we’re seeing the same chain of events take place in Bakhmut, where Ukraine appears to be preparing to withdraw, and around Kupiansk in northern Luhansk. While gaining some ground, Russia is taking substantial losses almost everywhere along the Line of Contact, from Kupiansk all the way down to Vulhudar.
“Reporting From Ukraine” describes Ukraine’s withdrawal from Krasna Hora located just north of Bakhmut, and what appears to be preparations for a withdrawal from Bakhmut itself. At the same time, they are building a defense line in front of Chasiv Yar, just southwest of Bakhmut. He also covers the action around Kupiansk.
Currently, Ukraine appears to be content with blunting Russian offensives and inflicting substantial casualties on the Russians. I agree with most of those who predict that Ukraine will start at least one offensive in late March or early April. Apparently, the Russians are building defense lines in Southern Ukraine, to stop a Ukrainian counterattack toward Melitopol.
That said, I would not rely on Ukraine to do what everyone predicts. Very few predicted last September’s Ukrainian counterattack in the Kharkiv Region.
2/13 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon February 12 to 12:00 noon February 13, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
February 13
11:46: In Turkey, a series of earthquakes killed more than 31 thousand people. More than 158 thousand citizens were evacuated from the affected regions.
· Data from the Directorate for Emergency Prevention and Response (AFAD).
11:24: EU ambassadors to discuss tenth sanctions package on Wednesday
· This was reported by Radio Svoboda correspondent Rikard Jozwiak.
· According to him, the new package can be adopted next week, since no energy sanctions are expected.
09:57: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that Denmark had transferred all its CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.
08:29: The U.S. Embassy in Russia has urged Americans to leave the country immediately.
· "Do not enter Russia due to the unpredictable consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. US citizens residing or traveling in Russia must leave the country immediately," the embassy's website says.
08:14: The IOC president urged national governments not to interfere in Olympic decisions. An Olympic official said this in Courchevel.
08:13: Bayraktar manufacturer will build a container town for earthquake victims, says Baykar Technical Director Selchuk Bayraktar.
· With this project, the total assistance from the company will reach almost $ 100 million.
08:12 DW: NATO sites have been hacked
· The attack was likely conducted by the Russian hacker group Killnet.
00:15: The US military shot down another unidentified object near the border with Canada. This is the fourth such case in a month.
February 12
23:48 Bloomberg: Turkey's economic damage, after the earthquake, will be more than $84 billion, or about 10% of GDP.
· The Confederation of Enterprises and Business of the country said the damage to the housing stock is approximately $ 70.8 billion and another $ 10.4 billion to national income.
· At the same time, labor losses will cost the Turkish economy $ 2.9 billion.
23:31: The European Union has extended free roaming for Ukrainians - being in the EU countries, they will be able to call at the tariffs in force in Ukraine.
· This agreement was extended for another six months by 27 Ukrainian and European mobile and fixed-line operators.
23:13 Reuters: American Bradley BMP for the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived at the port of Germany.
· It is reported that on board are the M2A2 Bradley BMP, Avenger air defense, BREM M88A2 Hercules and components.
23:01: Armenia has sent 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Turkey. To do this, it was necessary to open a land border, closed since 1993.
· On the morning of February 11, five trucks with humanitarian aid from Armenia crossed the Armenian-Turkish border, which has been closed since 1993. The video of the direct border crossing near the Armenian city of Margara was published by Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vaan Kostanyan.
21:10: Turkey has launched an investigation into the construction of structures that were destroyed by the February 6 earthquake, the country's vice president, Fuat Oktay, said.
· According to him, 131 people are suspected of involvement in the destruction of some of the thousands of buildings destroyed by the earthquake. Arrest warrants were issued for 113 people.
17:57: In Syria, about 8.5 thousand people died after the earthquake. People.
· This was announced today at the World Health Organization at an online briefing.
17:22 Der Spiegel: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg intends to leave office this autumn, as previously planned.
· "He does not intend to seek an extension of the mandate," said secretary general spokeswoman Oana Lungescu.
17:05 Sonntagszeitung: Swiss bank Credit Suisse has frozen Russian assets by 17.6 billion Swiss francs (over $19 billion).
16:48: In Turkey, an earthquake that occurred on February 6 has already killed more than 29 thousand people.
· This was stated by the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) under the Turkish government.
16:31 CNN: The publication published footage from Mikhail Saakashvili's hospital ward.
· The video was shot in October last year. On it, the former President of Georgia falls on the way to the bed.
16:12 Bloomberg: Britain plans to resuscitate ties with the European Union that have been destroyed by Brexit.
· UK officials hope they can announce a resolution in the coming days of a years-long dispute with the EU over trade deals for Northern Ireland after Brexit.
· And Sunak's team hopes to use this breakthrough as a basis for comprehensively improving relations with the bloc.
15:41: American MALE MQ-9A Reaper drones have arrived in Poland to conduct reconnaissance on the eastern border of the state, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said.
· Drones were rented from the United States as part of an urgent operational need.
15:25 Economic Times: Pakistan will send military aid to Ukraine, which will include ten thousand shells for Grad rockets.
14:29: South Korea wants to create a new guided missile to destroy North Korean long-range artillery systems, according to Yonhap.
· The missile is set to become an upgraded version of the Korean surface-to-surface tactical missile (KTSSM), dubbed the "long-range artillery killer."
13:41: TRT Haber has released footage of a child who spent 150 hours under the rubble after an earthquake in Turkey's Hatay province.
13:20: 30 NATO allies reach an informal agreement to extend Secretary General Stoltenberg's term of office until April 2024.
· This was reported by high-ranking diplomats to the publication Welt am Sonntag.
NATIONAL
February 13
11:12 Ukrenergo: Consumption is gradually increasing compared to the day off, which is traditional for the start of the working week. Currently, there is no shortage of power in the power system yet.
· However, due to the damaged network infrastructure in Odessa, there are schedules of hourly outages. In Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr regions and in Kyiv, as consumption grows, it is also possible to use outages in accordance with the schedules of distribution system operators to avoid the risk of equipment overload.
10:50: Head of the Ministry of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov said that he had gone to a new meeting in the "Ramstein" format and outlined the main issues on the agenda:
· protection of the Ukrainian sky, including through the involvement of an aviation platform,
· development of a "tank coalition",
· formation of a margin of safety for ammunition,
· training programs for our soldiers,
· stability of support - logistics, maintenance, repair, practical implementation of the "Military Schengen".
10:39: Former First Deputy Minister of Health Oleksandr Komarid was notified of suspicion according to the SBU
· According to the investigation, the official allowed the registration of a foreign drug, which is actually a dietary supplement and requires additional research.
· The issue of choosing a measure of restraint is currently being resolved.
09:24 Operation Command South: The next massive Russian missile attack could take place on February 24
07:14 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· "The enemy is suffering significant losses, especially in manpower. He focuses his main efforts on the conduct of offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdievsky and Novopavlovsk directions.
· Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repulsed the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Gryanykivka, Kharkiv region; Kreminna and Bilohorivka in Luhansk region; Vyyinka, Fedorivka, Vasyukivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovo and Klishchiivka of Donetsk region and Zheleznodorozhne in Zaporizhia".
· To strengthen counter-sabotage measures in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region, the Russians sent about 200 servicemen of the Russian Guard there,
· They were settled on the territory of the Chaika recreation center in the village of Lazurne, and for the safety of the occupiers in the village, the movement of local residents is limited.
· Due to the low level of provision of winter uniforms, since January this year, the number of servicemen of the Russian occupation forces with signs of frostbite of the limbs has increased significantly, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Thus, in medical institutions of Horlivka, Donetsk region, the number of patients with such a diagnosis is up to 30 percent of all wounded.
· During the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted 8 strikes on areas of concentration of Russians, as well as 3 strikes on the positions of anti-aircraft missile systems, -
· And Ukrainian rocket launchers and artillerymen hit 10 areas of concentration of manpower, 1 air defense position and 3 Russian ammunition depots.
· In total, during the week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 7 munitions warehouses, 6 bases/command posts/headquarters and 1 FLM of Russians.
February 12
22:41: The purpose of Russian drone attacks is to study the operation of Ukrainian air defense systems, said Yuri Ignat, speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· "So they started attacking in small groups in the evening. They are investigating the operation of our air defense, and reconnaissance drones can appear to inspect the effects of the strikes. You can't call it a preparation (for a new shelling - ed.)," Ignat said.
21:30: February 23 and 24, the anniversary of the outbreak of war, great events are expected that Russia will remember, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
· "There will be many important political signals, there will be decisions on sanctions, weapons, there will be symbols of unity, and this will happen at all levels," Kuleba said.
19:38 DTEK: The next day, Ukrenergo did not impose restrictions on electricity consumption.
· "This allows tomorrow not to turn off the lights in Kyiv City, and Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
· However, in case of network overload, there may be restrictions according to stabilization schedules," the message says.
18:15 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on February 12:
· "The enemy focuses its main efforts on the conduct of offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdievsky and Novopavlovsk directions.
· Strengthens its grouping of troops in the Liman and Bakhmut directions. It actively uses aviation to strike the positions of our troops."
· "During the day, the enemy launched 2 missile strikes and carried out 23 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· The threat of further Russian strikes on civilian targets remains high throughout Ukraine. Don't ignore the air alarms."
· "The enemy does not stop terrorizing residents of the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region.
· This time, the most vulnerable stratum – pensioners – was under pressure. The enemy forces them to obtain Russian passports, threatening to stop receiving any pensions."
· "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted 2 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.
· And units of rocket troops and artillery hit 8 areas of concentration of manpower, 1 air defense position and 2 enemy ammunition depots."
17:39 DTEK's Executive Director: Stabilization schedules for power outages will return Monday.
· "The combination of several factors allows today, on a particular day, not to limit consumption.
· But tomorrow, when there is a working day and consumption increases, shutdown schedules will be used," Sakharuk said.
13:09: In the Black Sea, 12 Russian ships are on alert, of which 2 are carriers of cruise missiles "Kalibr", the total volley of which is 8 missiles.
· According to the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians also deployed 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and 10 in the Mediterranean, of which 5 are carriers of "Kalibr" cruise missiles, the total volley of which is 72 missiles.
12:58: Volodymyr Zelenskyy enacted NSDC sanctions against 200 people.
· The relevant document, together with the decision of the National Security and Defense Council and its annex, was published on the website of the President's Office today, February 12.
· It is noted that sanctions are imposed on the basis of proposals made by the SBU and apply to 200 individuals associated with the Russian Federation.
MORDOR (russia)
February 13
09:07 British intelligence: The Russians do not know where the main strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be and strengthen the two directions, -
· According to intelligence, Russian troops are strengthening two directions of the front - Zaporozhye and Luhansk. This is evidenced by the footage published on the network.
08:53 Institute for the Study of War: Russia exaggerates the power of its offensives.
· "The Kremlin deliberately exaggerates the importance of each tactical offensive of the Russian army in order to demoralize Ukrainians and make the West doubt the importance of further military support for Kyiv," analysts say.
· At the same time, British intelligence notes that Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhia will seriously undermine the viability of the Russian "land bridge" connecting the Rostov region of Russia and Crimea.
· Ukraine's success in Luhansk will further undermine Russia's military goal of "liberating" the Donbas.
00:43: Consequences of the environmental disaster provoked by the Russians.
· Due to the fact that they drain water at the Kakhovka HPP, fish, birds, and plants die in the floodplain zone in Zaporizhia.
February 12
19:22 The Guardian: Iran uses boats and state planes to smuggle drones into Russia.
· According to sources in the Middle East country, at least 18 drones were delivered to the Russian fleet after Russian and technical officers made a special visit to Tehran in November, where they were shown the full range of Iranian technology.
14:41 The Wall Street Journal - Ukraine's Military Intelligence: Further mobilization will further deplete Russia.
· "If Russia continues the new round of mobilization, it will suffer from the same problems that the previous wave revealed, including the lack of modern equipment in good working condition and a sufficient number of combat-ready officers, training a huge influx of untrained people," said a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
12:18 PM NV - Ombudsman: Russia is deliberately trying to delay the exchange of prisoners, stating that our military allegedly does not want to return home.
· According to him, representatives of the Russian Federation spread false information not only among their citizens, but also try to convince the international community. At the same time, they refuse to provide the Ukrainian side and its partners with access to prisoners and do not have any evidence of their own statements.
· "Some servicemen of the Russian army have already been captured by soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine twice and this is officially recorded," the ombudsman said.
LUHANSK
February 12
13:56 Luhansk RMA: A few days ago, the Russians organized several powerful attacks in the Kreminna direction,
· According to Gaidai, the enemy there suffered significant losses and yesterday was slightly delayed for replenishment. The Russian military tried to follow the column of equipment, but thanks to the accuracy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians retreated.
· "From tanks, heavy artillery and aircraft, the occupiers are shelling our positions in Bilohorivka," Gaidai added.
KHARKIV
February 13
09:36 Kharkiv RMA: This morning, the Russians shelled Kupyansk again. Residential buildings were damaged, fires occurred, no one was injured
· Over the past day, Russian troops with artillery and mortars fired at least 10 border settlements in the Chuhuiv and Kupyansk districts.
· In Vovchansk, a 47-year-old civilian was injured as a result of a hit on a private house.
DONETSK
February 13
10:10 Donetsk RMA: At night, the Russians hit Druzhkivka and Pokrovsk, relatively far from the front, no one was injured.
· 1 person was wounded in Elizavetovka, 1 house was destroyed and 4 in Krasnohorivka were damaged; 4 more houses were damaged in Zoryane. The house in Hirnyk and the territory of the enterprise in Kurakhivka were damaged. Single arrivals were recorded in Avdiivka – without casualties.
· 3 private houses in Vasyukivka, 2 houses in Toretsk and 1 house in Kostiantynivka, Bakhmut and Ivanivske were damaged. There was no information about the victims.
· In the Lysychansk direction, a house in Seversk was destroyed, and Serebrianka came under fire.
08:43 Donetsk RMA: On February 12, Russians killed 1 resident of Donetsk region — in Chasovoy Yar.
· Another 1 person in the area was injured.
February 12
22:26 Social Networks: In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the sounds of explosions were heard.
22:50 Social Networks: In the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk region, the sound of an explosion was heard.
19:53 Operational Command East: During the day, the Russians inflicted 167 strikes with various types of barreled artillery in the Bakhmut direction.
· "Over the past day, the Russians lost 5 T-72 tanks, one Tiger armored car, a Tulip mortar and two Peony self-propelled guns near Bakhmut," Cherevaty added.
18:52: German newspaper Bild has released footage of their journalists coming under fire in Bakhmut.
14:56: From tomorrow, the military will close access to Bakhmut for all civilians, including volunteers, the commander with the call sign Magyar said.
· It will be possible to get to Bakhmut only by special permits. The purpose of the ban is to ensure the safety of civilians from enemy sabotage groups infiltrating the city.
· Magyar says street fighting continues in the suburbs of eastern and southern Bakhmut.
ZAPORIZHIA
February 13
10:08 Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Zaporizhia.
09:33 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia region.
DNIPRO
February 12
22:16: The Air Force Command of the Armed Forces reported that on February 12 there was no attack by drones - shahids in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
· The enemy used a reconnaissance UAV and several balloons with corner reflectors.
· On the enemy UAV worked air defense of the air command "East". The result is being clarified.
21:15 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Preliminary – air defense work.
20:28 Dnipro RMA: The Russians attacked the Nikopol region three times with barreled artillery and MLRS.
· "In the morning, the enemy shelled Nikopol. A 53-year-old woman was killed. According to the updated information, two people were injured. These are pensioners aged 88 and 76.
· Six high-rise buildings, a water utility and a college building have been damaged in the city."
20:04 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Dnipro.
KHERSON
February 13
11:56 Kherson RMA: Russian troops today once again shelled the city with artillery. Russian shells utterly destroyed the building of the production base of one of the enterprises
· Rescuers, medics and law enforcement officers promptly arrived at the scene. Under the rubble was a man - a guard of the base. Doctors stated death.
11:33 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
11:00 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled the territory of Kherson region 42 times.
· The Russian army shelled Kherson itself 9 times. 3 people were killed, 1 resident of the region was injured.
10:42 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
00:27 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
February 12
15:12 Kherson RMA: In the Kherson region, a car with civilians blew up on a Russian mine.
· The tragedy occurred this morning near the village of Novoraysk, Beryslav district. Both men died on the spot from their injuries.
13:17 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region.
12:08 Kherson RMA: The center of Kherson was again under fire from Russian artillery.
· The blow was struck on the building of the regional state administration. There are no casualties among the peaceful Kherson residents.
Mykolaiv
February 12
19:06 Operational Command South: Russia shells Mykolaiv region to prevent its involvement in the "grain agreement".
· "Over the past day, the enemy once again shelled the Ochakov direction and hit the water area," Humenyuk said.
SUMY
February 12
10:56 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sumy region.
February 12
16:21 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Sumy region.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka