Bob Homans December 6

20221206

Ukraine – 12/6 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
December 6, 2022

Yesterday’s Russian Missile Strike and the Bombing of Russian Airfields

Taken together, these two events amounted to a victory for Ukraine.  

“Reporting From Ukraine” has a detailed analysis of the attacks on the Russian airfields and the Russian missile strikes against Ukraine, including:

·       Russia’s original intent appeared to be a strike that included 150 missiles, with the objective of knocking out Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for at least a week.  Instead, only 70 missiles were fired, of which Ukraine was able to destroy 60.

·       The attacks against the airfields took place 2 hours before the planned launch.  

·       The Russian bomber Tu-95 was to be the platform from which the cruise missiles were to be launched.  

·       Each Tu-95 carries 5 cruise missiles, leading to the estimate that 16 Russian Tu-95s were either damaged or destroyed, along with the 80 cruise missiles they were carrying.

·       Neither the Tu-95s nor their engines are currently manufactured in Russia, so the losses Russia sustained today cannot be replaced.

·       Although Ukraine has not accepted responsibility, Ukraine may have used Soviet Era jet powered drones, modified to carry a warhead.   They have a range of 1,000 km.   Yet another example of Ukraine’s ingenuity.

The Latest Denys also has interesting information about the attacks on the Russian airfields, including:

·       A third attack, against oil storage tanks near Kursk

·       The area of Russia that is within range of the modified drones

Taken together, yesterday’s events was a Ukrainian victory.   The 10 cruise missiles that did go through resulted in some localized damage, including in Odesa and Vinnytsa, but nothing compared to Russia’s original intent of targeting all of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Now that it’s becoming clear that Ukraine has the capability, on its own, to strike deep into Russia, at targets Russia is using to hit Ukraine, it makes a mockery of the U.S. limiting the range of the HIMARS, as reported in the Wall St. Journal.  Unlike Russia, there is no intent on Ukraine’s part to strike civilian targets.

The U.S. limiting the range of weapons that it supplies to Ukraine is part of a continuing U.S. policy regarding arming Ukraine, going back several years.   When the U.S. supplied Ukraine with counter-battery radars, soon after Russia invaded Donbas in 2014 & 2015, they came with software that prevented the radars from acquiring coordinates of artillery that was firing into Ukrainian territory from locations inside Russia.   Whether the U.S. Administration likes it or not, yesterday’s events means that the days that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are treated like elementary school children, who are perceived to be capable of misbehaving and need to have limitations placed on them, have been substantially altered.

12/6 Sitrep

Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon December 5 to 12:00 noon December 6, 2022

Abbreviations:

RMA = Regional Military Administration             SBU = Security Service of Ukraine

INTERNATIONAL

December 6

09:30 AFP: The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, suggested not to rush to provide security guarantees to Russia.

·       Borrell considers it necessary first to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and only then for Russia, the newspaper reports.

09:42 Lithuanian Finance Minister: Hungary is "immoral" to block the provision of €18 billion from the EU to Ukraine.

·       "It is immoral on the part of Hungary to block support for Ukraine and link it to issues that are simply on a different level. One issue is the RRP plan and money for reforms, and another issue is assistance to Ukraine, which is at war. It's just immoral to put everything on the same level," Skaiste said.

10:05: Latvia revokes Dozhd TV channel’s broadcasting license. The channel was created by opposition Russian journalists who moved to Riga after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.

·       The decision was made by the National Council on Electronic Media.

·       Its leader, Ivars Abolins, explained that the decision was made in favor of "state security and public order."

08:00: The United States does not intend to buy oil from Russia to replenish its strategic reserve, since the import of this oil is prohibited from us, says White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre.

08:00: Israeli state-owned company Rafael and American arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin sign an agreement to jointly develop a high-energy laser combat system, says Xinhua

08:00 Reuters: Beijing will no longer require negative Covid-19 tests to enter supermarkets and commercial buildings.

00:44 Estonian Prime Minister: It is now very dangerous to conduct peace talks with Russia if Europe seeks to establish a lasting peace on its continent.

·       This was stated by Kaia Callas, commenting on the statements of French President Emmanuel Macron about the need to discuss security guarantees for Russia.

00:09 Turkish Ministry of Defense: Turkey has sent an F-16 to joint exercises with Azerbaijan near the border with Iran.

December 5

23:44 Hungarian Secretary of State: Hungary will not train Ukrainian troops on its territory.

·       "Some European countries train Ukrainian military. In Hungary, no. We said no. We want to move not towards war, but towards peace," he wrote.

23:21 Financial Times: In Turkey, congestion formed from tankers after the introduction of a limit on oil prices from the Russian Federation.

·       According to ship brokers, oil traders and satellite tracking services, today about 19 tankers with crude oil were expected to cross Turkish waters.

22:59: The White House is aware of reports of Ukraine's attempts to strike Russian military airfields Diaghilevo in the Ryazan region and Engels in the Saratov region, but does not comment on them or have detailed information.

·       This was stated by the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council of the White House John Kirby.

22:32 Radio Svoboda: Chechen opposition blogger and critic of Ramzan Kadyrov, Tumso Abdurakhmanov, has been killed in Sweden.

22:24 The Hill: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated U.S. support for Israel, despite differences in political positions.

·       "The partnership between the U.S. and Israel — and all that it has created for the people of our countries and the world — has always been underpinned by the United States' unwavering commitment to Israel's security, a commitment that has never been as strong as it is today," Blinken said.

22:03: Montenegro signs a declaration of support for its accession to the EU Balkan Insight with Ukraine.

10:13 Reuters: Russian oil from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino was sold in Asian markets on Monday at a price of about $79 per barrel.

·       This is almost a third higher than the marginal price set for Russian oil by the G7 and EU countries, the publication reports.

22:21 The Wall Street Journal: The United States modified HIMARS missile launchers so that Ukraine could not launch missiles on Russian territory.

21:44: There will be no total power outage, said Yasno CEO  Sergey Kovalenko.

·       According to him, consumption is limited to 575 MW and most of the capital is now with electricity. As soon as the situation in the power system is fully stabilized, everyone will return to the schedules.

21:28: Ukraine and the UAE have started negotiations on concluding an agreement on economic partnership, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said.

18:32: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko reacted to the fall of part of a Russian missile in Moldova.

·       "Ukraine should get modern missile and air defense systems as soon as possible, which will save people's lives, protect critical infrastructure and prevent further missile attacks by the Russian Federation," Nikolenko said.

17:18 Bloomberg: The European Union intends to impose restrictions on Russia's drone sector as part of a new sanctions package the bloc intends to approve next week.

16:24 Sky News - German Ambassador to the United Kingdom: Germany is preparing for a new flow of refugees from Ukraine.

·       "These attacks on energy infrastructure mean that many people, given the frost, will be forced to leave Ukraine. We expect a new wave of refugees in the coming weeks," Berger said.

15:46 Moldova Liberă: Part of a Russian rocket fell in the Briceni district, Moldova.

·       Moldovan law enforcement officers are working at the site of the fall of part of the missile — the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Moldova.

12:26 Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman: Spanish police intercepted three more envelopes with the eyes of animals addressed to the Ukrainian Embassy in Madrid, consulates in Barcelona and Malaga.

12:11 Bloomberg: On Sunday, a short online meeting was held between the OPEC+ countries related to the situation on the global crude oil market.

·       Against the background of the EU's setting a price cap for Russian raw materials and petroleum products, and easing quarantine restrictions in China, the group members decided to refrain from radical decisions for the time being and kept the extraction of raw materials at the same level.

NATIONAL

December 6

09:09: Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video with the Ukrainian military, congratulating them on Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

08:50: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi congratulated his colleagues on the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

08:16 DTEK: As of December 6, emergency blackouts continue to operate in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa.

·       "We will return to stabilization schedules as soon as the situation in the power system stabilizes," the statement said.

07:36 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 06:00 on December 6:

·       "The enemy does not stop shelling settlements and positions of our units along the line of contact, conducts air reconnaissance.

·       It continues to strike critical infrastructure and civilian accommodations, in violation of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of warfare."

·       "Over the past day, the enemy has launched a massive missile strike on critical and civilian infrastructure facilities in Ukraine.

·       Residential buildings and critical infrastructure facilities of Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and other regions of our state were hit."

·       "The enemy fired 70 Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22, Kh-59, Kh-31 P and Caliber missiles on the territory of Ukraine. In total, more than 60 missiles of the occupiers were destroyed by air defense units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

·       Over the past day, the enemy has inflicted 17 air strikes and carried out 38 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.

·       The threat of missile strikes by the enemy on objects of the energy system and critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine remains."

·       "Over the past day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine has inflicted 15 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as 5 strikes on the positions of enemy anti-aircraft missile systems.

·       Units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces of Ukraine during the day hit 2 control points, 8 areas of concentration of personnel and an important object of the enemy.

·       "We sincerely congratulate all servicemen and employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on their professional holiday! Thank you for your sacrificial service and defense of the Fatherland!"

07:16: Russia could launch a new missile strike today, said Yuri Ignat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

00:24: Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, head of Ukrenergo  , said that it would take a day or two to stabilize the power system after a missile strike.

·       According to him, during this period, the blocks that were emergency shut down should be re-launched. Therefore, in the next few days there will be emergency outages throughout Ukraine.

·       Kudrytsky added that the most difficult situation is now in the Odessa region. Currently, electricity is supplied there according to backup schemes in order to first feed the critical infrastructure of Odesa and partially supply electricity to people.

December 5

23:30: The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine published an intercepted conversation in which a mobilized Russian soldier in the Donetsk region tells his mother about the heavy losses and drunkenness in the unit.

23:09: Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about further strengthening of Ukraine's air defense.

·       "I would like to express my deep gratitude to Lloyd Austin, who is sincerely concerned about the situation in Ukraine. During our telephone conversation today, immediately after Russia's massive missile strike, we discussed further steps to strengthen Ukrainian air defense," Reznikov said.

21:19 President: A massive Russian missile strike on Ukraine killed 4 people as of Monday evening.

20:03: Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

·       "It's the heart. A heart of gold for ordinary people who protect us all. This year we are launching the awarding of such an award. Those who really deserve it. Those whose heart is golden, and that is why they are volunteers.

·       Every year we will celebrate more volunteer projects, other organizations, new personalities."

19:52: Footage of a Russian missile being shot down by an anti-aircraft gun Gepard. Video from social networks.

19:44: Center for countering disinformation:

·       🦸 ♂️🦸 ♀️ Volunteers are, without exaggeration, superheroes of our time.  Despite everything, they help hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians at the front and in the rear every day. And every time it's not just help – it's real heroism!

·       👨 🦰👱 ♀️ In difficult times, anyone who helps the military, doctors or ordinary Ukrainians can become a volunteer, since a volunteer is not a profession, it is a vocation of the soul when it is always ready for the feat!

·       🦾 Read about the top 7 feats of Ukrainian volunteers in the joint infographics of the Center for Countering Disinformation and volunteer Ihor Lachenkov.

19:30: Emergency blackouts are in all regions of Ukraine, Ukrenergo said.

18:58 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on December 5:

·       "The occupiers do not stop shelling the positions of our troops and settlements along the contact line. Actively used aviation in the Donetsk region.

·       In the city of Starobilsk, Luhansk region, the quartering of mobilized servicemen of the Russian occupation forces in private houses continues."

·       "In the village of Olhyne, Kakhovka district, Kherson region, the occupiers continue to export agricultural stocks of local agricultural enterprises to the territory of the Russian Federation.

·       Cases of robberies of private houses located in settlements along the left bank of the Dnieper River of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region have become more frequent.

·       "Due to significant losses in the units of the occupiers in the Kherson region, there are cases of desertion.

·       During the current day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces has inflicted 5 strikes on areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment."

·       "Units of the missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces in a day hit 2 control points, 8 areas of concentration of personnel and another important enemy object."

17:56 DTEK: Emergency blackouts have been introduced in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions after the critical infrastructure was shelled.

·       Stabilization shutdown schedules are not yet in effect.

17:47 Air Force Command: Air Defense Forces shot down more than 60 of more than 70 Russian missiles.

17:26 Prime Minister of Ukraine: The country's energy system is functioning and remains integral.

·       "There were hits to energy facilities in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Odesa regions. In some regions, emergency shutdowns have been forced to be used to balance the system and avoid accidents," Shmyhal wrote.

15:36: Ukrenergo reports that Russian missiles hit energy infrastructure facilities.

15:24: Problems with the Internet began in Odesa, Sumy and Zhytomyr.

15:18: The command of the Ukrainian Navy and the marines managed to organize the escape of Ukrainian intelligence officers from captivity, and then transport them to the territory controlled by Ukraine.

·       This was announced by the representative of the Coordination Headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war Igor Kopytin.

13:21: Before the war, Russia divided Ukrainians into 4 groups, the first was subject to liquidation, according to a report by the Royal Institute of United Services of London (RUSI).

·       The division was invented to suppress the resistance of the population:

o   the first group is those who need to be eliminated physically;

o   the second is those who need to be oppressed;

o   the third is neutral citizens who can be inclined to cooperate;

o   the fourth is potential collaborators.

13:10: Ukraine celebrates volunteer day today.

12:50 Financial Times - President: Western partners have not provided Ukraine with intelligence on Russia's future actions, since which the Armed Forces could make defense plans.

·       "Warnings of an impending attack were heard only in the public square. No one showed us specific materials that would say that they would be in one direction or another," the president said.

12:33: Electricity consumption has increased in Ukraine as of Monday, Ukrenergo reports.

·       "This is due to both the beginning of the working week and a noticeable drop in temperature almost throughout the country," the company said in a statement.

·       If the consumption limits set for the regions will not be observed, then emergency shutdowns will have to be applied.

MORDOR (rUSSIA)

December 6

07:07: An oil storage tank erupted near the Kursk airfield as a result of a drone attack, according to the governor of the Starovoyt region.

December 5

20:31: The first satellite image of the aftermath of the explosion at one of the Russian airfields, Diaghilevo in the Ryazan region,  appeared on the social network.

·       The photo shows the site of the explosion near the Russian Tu-22M3 bomber. The plane was probably damaged.

12:58: Russians are going to take out museum collections from the temporarily occupied Crimea, says Crimean Institute for Strategic Studies.

·       "According to insider information, evacuations may begin if the invader's troops leave for Perekop," the statement said.

KHARKIV

December 6

10:26 Kharkiv RMA: Under artillery shelling by Russians again Chuhuiv, Kharkiv and Kupyansk districts

·       Unfortunately, as a result of shelling by Russians in the village of Obukhivka, in the Kupyansk district, a 68-year-old man  was killed.

December 5

16:00 Kharkiv RMA: Confirmed the successful operation of air defense in the region.

15:11 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv.

13:48 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kharkiv region.

LUHANSK

December 6

DONETSK

December 6

December 5

16:10 Social Networks: Local groups in the temporarily occupied Donetsk report explosions in the city.

ZAPORIZHIA

December 6

10:01 Social Networks: Explosions are reported in the temporarily occupied Mykhailivka, Zaporizhia region.

07:25 mayor: In the temporarily occupied Melitopol of Zaporizhia region, loud explosions sounded in the morning.

04:00 Zaporizhia RMA: The Russians launched a missile strike on the  suburbs of Zaporozhye.

·       One of the missiles hit the territory of the Stepnyanskaya territorial community. Critical infrastructure facilities and residential buildings were damaged. According to preliminary information, people were not injured.

01:05 Social Networks: Sounds of explosions in Zaporizhia.

00:53 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhia.

December 5

16:17 SBU press service: SBU exposed the head of the  Russian Federation Ministry in  Melitopol, who gave schools to the barracks of the Rosgvardia.

·       It is known that while in the "position", she was engaged in reformatting the educational system of the region to meet the needs of the aggressor country.

14:53 Zaporizhia  RMA: In Novosofiivka in Zaporizhia, two dead and two wounded.

14:37 President's Office: In the Zaporizhia region, the village of Novosofiyivka destroyed several private houses, there are injured.

·       The State Emergency Service and the ambulance are already working at the scene.

·       As a result of Russian shelling in Novosofiivka, a small child was wounded – 1 year and 10 months old.

14:28 Secretary of the City Council: Several explosions sounded in Zaporizhia

·       Some of them are echoes of "arrivals" in the suburbs. Another part is the work of air defense.

14:00 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Zaporizhia region. Conditionaly air defense..

DNIPRO

December 6

10:10 Social Networks: Locals report explosions in Nikopol.

08:25 Dnipro RMA: Russians shelled Nikopol, Chervonohryhorivska and Marganets communities at night.

·       Damaged private houses, gas pipelines, power lines. It passed without the dead and wounded.

December 5

16:40 Dnipro RMA: In the eastern regions, air defense forces shot down 15 Russian missiles.

14:55 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kryvyi Rih.

13:49 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

KHERSON

December 6

10:15 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled the territory of Kherson region 17 times. Peaceful settlements of the region were attacked with artillery, MLRS, mortars and tanks.

·       They drove through civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. Due to Russian shelling, 1 person was injured.

00:59 Deputy Prime Minister: Over the past week, 3500 people have been voluntarily evacuated from Kherson by free trains provided by the state.

·       Also, according to her, people continue to leave on their own and with the help of volunteers.

December 5

21:43 Social Networks: Repeated explosions in Kherson are reported.

15:03 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

14:51: Sumy region is completely without power supply, — JSC Sumyoblenergo.

·       An emergency shutdown was used to prevent violations in the operation of the unified energy system of Ukraine.

MYKOLAIV

December 5

15:20 Mykolaiv RMA: Warned of three waves of missiles, one has already passed.

15:09 Mykolaiv RMA: reported on the second wave of rocket launches.

14:29 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Mykolaiv.

14:21 Mykolaiv  RMA: Shooting down at least three Russian missiles in the Mykolaiv region.

ODESA

December 5

19:21: In Odesa, NABU detectives detained businessman Kaufman and ex-mp Granovsky,  the press service of  the NABU and SAPO reports.

·       "Persons were detained for bribing officials and suspecting the creation of a criminal organization," the statement said.

17:36 Odesa RMA: As a result of a massive missile strike, the energy infrastructure of Odesa region was damaged.

·       "There are also hits on civilian homes and civilian infrastructure. Two people were injured," Marchenko wrote.

16:52 mayor: In Odessa, there was a arrival at a substation that supplies electricity to the Bilyaivska pumping station.

15:40 President's Office: In the Odessa region, two infrastructure facilities were damaged, one person was hospitalized.

15:33 Director of KP "Heat supply of the city of Odessa": All boiler houses in Odessa have suspended their work due to the lack of light and water.

14:59: In Odessa, all pumping stations and backup lines are de-energized. There is no water supply everywhere in the city, reports Infoxvodokanal.

14:24 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Odesa. Conditionaly air defense..

KYIV

December 5

18:05 Kyiv  RMA: "In the Kyiv region, we have a hit on the energy infrastructure facility."

·       Emergency shutdowns continue in the region. Without electricity, about 40% of subscribers are now.

16:44: 10 missiles were recorded in the area of Kyiv's airspace, 9 are known to have been shot down, the information is being clarified, — KMVA.

15:29: At some metro stations, passenger disembarkation may not currently be carried out due to the large number of people at underground stations. Residents and guests of the capital use the subway as a shelter. The air alarm in Kiev continues.

14:38 Kyiv RMA: confirms the work of air defense in the region.

14:32 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kyiv. Conditionaly air defense.

14:26 Social Networks: Local residents in the Kyiv metro during an air alarm.

14:16 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kyiv region. Conditionaly air defense.

SUMY

December 5

23:55 Sumy RMA: During the day, Russians shelled five communities in the Sumy region. They were beaten with mortars and artillery.

·       "The enemy struck 84 strikes on the border during that day. The Shalyhynska, Krasnopilska, Bilopilska, Myropilska  and Esmanska communities  were under fire," Zhivitsky wrote.

POLTAVA

December 5

16:32 Poltava RMA: Up to 10 missiles were shot down in the Poltava region.

13:56 Social Networks: Explosions  are heard in Kremenchuk, Poltava region. Conditionaly air defense.

13:40 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Poltava region.

12:41: The SSU is enforcing security at the UOC (MP) facilities in Poltava region, the SBU press service said  .

·       We are talking about the Mgarsky Spas - Preobrazhensky monastery of the Poltava and Mirgorod dioceses of the UOC and the diocesan department of the Kremenchuk and Lubensk dioceses of the UOC. The events are held jointly with the National Police within the framework of the systematic work of the Security Service of Ukraine to counter the subversive activities of the Russian special services in Ukraine.

KIROVOHRAD

December 5

18:22 Kirovohrad RMA: There were water supply disruptions in Kropyvnytskyi.

·       "However, the water utility has already started a phased water supply," Rajkovic said.

14:09 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Kirovohrad region. Conditionaly air defense.

VINNYTSIA

December 5

14:43 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Vinnytsia.

14:12 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Vinnytsia region. Conditionaly air defense.

KHMELNITSKY

December 5

15:26 Khmelnytski RMA: Confirms the successful operation of air defense in the region.

15:02 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the Khmelnytsky region. Conditionaly air defense.

LVIV

December 5

15:05 Lviv RMA: Some media outlets spread false information as if an explosion had been heard in Boryslav.

·       As of 3:00, this has not been confirmed. The area is quiet.

IVANO FRANKIVSK

December 5

18:15 Ivano Frankivsk RMA: NPC Ukrenergo reduces the limits for Prykarpattia by a third: from 330 MW to 214 MW.

·       "In addition to the schedules, we are forced to turn off consumers of 2 queues completely and part 1 of the queue!" she said.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka

www.ubn.news