Bob Homans. My observations on the war.
Here is Bob Homans for December 26.
As our family obviously has quite a stake in the outcome of this war, I pay close attention. We are doing what we can to avoid getting caught flat-footed if things take a bad turn.
The seller is coming over today or tomorrow to deliver a 2004 Mitsubishi Space Star. It is in pretty good shape for 20 years old and the price is right. Oksana will use it to become comfortable driving, after which we will trade up if and when we need something bigger or more reliable.
I anticipate I will continue to take the kids to school and kindergarten on the bus. The alternative would be for Oksana to drive. I have the time, and we are not in a hurry.
Should we ever have to leave Kyiv, wherever we moved we would almost certainly need to own a car. It is better for Oksana to get experience while she can.
Here are a few paragraphs on my view of the war.
Very little land changed hands in 2023. Defense has proven stronger than offense for both sides. Russia has expended an extraordinary number of soldiers to gain very little.
Throughout its history Russia has considered soldiers to be expendable. They draw from the tribal groups in their vast hinterland and ethnic Slavs from small villages. Ukraine is closer to purely Slavic and on balance more urban. A Ukrainian life is more dear to us than a Russian life to Russia. Our generals are more careful to preserve our soldiers. Of course, it is all relative – no NATO country could afford losses at the level we are seeing.
It is difficult to fathom the mentality of a Russian soldier who is sent to an almost certain death in a meat wave attack. It was impossible 80 years ago to understand the mentality of Soviet men who went into battle with wooden guns. Why are they unable to resist? What magic is there in the Russian system that prevents such soldiers from turning on their officers?
Their fatalistic mentality is both an advantage and a handicap. The Russians will keep coming at you when all logic would say they should give up. On the other hand, they lose phenomenal numbers of soldiers. In defending Adiivka, Ukraine claims to be inflicting a 7:1 loss ratio on the Russians. The battlefield video footage, and the lack of Russian progress on any map, suggests the figure may be close to accurate.
Despite few gains on land, Ukraine has been able to project its power by air and sea. It has swept the Russian navy out of the Black Sea, purportedly sinking 20% of it. Most important, we have driven what is left is far enough away that it poses much less of a threat.
Ukraine has destroyed airfields and aircraft far from its own territory, diminishing the threat of missiles. Though we in Kyiv get air raid warnings almost every day, the destruction is less this year. In August they were predicting that we would lose power this winter. It has not happened.
Ukraine has blown up critical infrastructure - bridges, tunnels, factories etc. - throughout Crimea and deep within Russia. Our partisan networks have great reach and are demonstrably more dangerous than Russia’s.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Janes and other sources Russia started the war with something approaching 10,000 tanks and time and a half that many armored personnel carriers. Ukraine, with some confirmation from international observers such as Oryx, claims to have destroyed about half of them. The more modern half. Denys Davidov reports that the Russian infantry now frequently attacks with minimal or no armored support.
Where do we go from here? It has been clear from the beginning that Russia does not have the industrial plant to come close to replenishing their materiel losses. Most of their armor and their aircraft date from the Soviet era, which ended more than three decades ago. They do not have the factories to produce replacements. They cannot import critical parts. They do not have the expert labor – much of which was Ukrainian in the first place.
Ukrainians fear that a truce would give Russia an opportunity to rebuild their war machine. That seems unlikely to me, especially in light of ongoing sanctions. Ukraine’s NATO allies certainly have enough in reserve, and enough productive capacity, to arm or re-arm Ukraine. On our side it is a matter of political will.
The world has not had time to absorb the implications of the self-destruction of Russia's military machine. Bluff was Russia's greatest weapon throughout the Cold War period. Nobody wanted to confront the world's second-biggest Army. What happens now that said second-biggest Army is in shambles?
Some prognosticators are saying that Russia will provoke a fight with NATO countries on its western border. I cannot believe it would happen. They do not want to face any more NATO weaponry than they are seeing at the present.
Russia has historically used its army to suppress internal dissent. The Chechens fought for and won independence in the 1990s, only to see Vladimir Putin start a second war to take it away. This region of 1.5 million restive people was able to create a major headache for a country almost 100 times larger.
In last year's news, Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov, supposedly an ally of Putin, formed his own battalions giving them very patriotic Chechen names. The thought of Chechen independence no doubt still remains alive. Ethnic regions adjoining Chechnya – Ossetia, Ingushia, Balkar, Nogay, Kumek, Lezgin and Kalmia - have not been heard from. They are mostly Muslim, have their own languages, and the shared history of being subjugated by the tsars.
The Russians have a history of mistreating their ethnic minorities. It would be surprising if there were not independence movements afoot in these countries. If they become convinced that the Russian army is too worn down and too occupied elsewhere, they are likely to become more assertive.
The independent nations of the Caucasus region, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, used to be part of the Soviet Union. There is no love lost. Russia was no help to its ally Armenia in defending itself against Azerbaijan. If its Caucasus regions were to leave Russia, they could presumably find access to world markets through friendly borders. There are similar ethnic groups on the borders of Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
Though Russia may not be able to rebuild its military machine, Russia’s history makes it clear that Russia will steal everything it can from the occupied territories, conscript their inhabitants into their army and take children from their families. They may not be smart, but they are ruthless. One reads that there are almost no fighting age men left in the Donbas or Crimea. They have been mobilized as cannon fodder against their countrymen. They are expendable, the worst trained and equipped of Russian soldiers.
Whereas I would not have feared greatly for the family if Russia had won quickly in 2022, it is certain that we would not want to fall in their hands as things stand now. We have to be ready to go if need be. Fortunately, our neighbors Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and the Baltics are conservative countries not overrun with non-European immigrants. I am sure that an American passport would get us to someplace adequate to raise the kids.
Thanks for the update, Graham. I think about you and your family a lot. If I were a religious man I’d say I pray for you every day. I hope you don’t ever need to use that American passport.
Stay safe! Glory to Ukraine!