Bob Homans daily sitrep

20220308

Gary in London just sent me a link to a Russian propaganda video to the effect that they are winning the war. Not surprisingly, it was blocked – I couldn't look at it. I have become pretty adept at using Movavi (a Russian video technology company) software to capture videos and compress the pictures small enough that I can send them as attachments. I have got a lot of practice capturing things before YouTube trashes them.

I doubt that Movavi gives a damn about Putin one way or the other. I will continue using the software because I understand it. It would have been useful to capture and send the video.

I just received this daily sitrep from Bob Homans. Again, I encourage all of you to subscribe. What Bob has written, in addition to what I observe and my own common sense, convinced me that Russia is losing this war. They simply have no idea how to end it. Things that lack the mechanism to end gracefully usually end suddenly and in a fiasco. Such was the collapse, first of the communist satellites in Eastern Europe and then the Soviet Union itself. Actually, give Gorbachev credit for a softer landing than it might've been for the Soviet Union itself.

Let me repeat that the agendas of the United States and British press would favor continuing to scare you about the Russian threat. They have soap to sell. They should have egg on their face for having worked so hard to provoke this war, and being so wrong about the Ukrainian will to resist.

Now everybody is rushing to slather Ukraine with money. The oligarchs are rubbing their hands at the plunder to steal. Zelensky will have a huge task just to make sure that it is applied to the benefit of the Ukrainian people. And that there aren't any unacceptable strings attached.

Enough about that – on with Bob Homans.  He writes about Russian History. Right on! See my reviews of Putin’s Wars, Letters from Russia, and Flight MH17 posted recently. Also Bloodlands, Maidan Diary and others I cannot now remember on Amazon. See yesterday's post for Bob’s contacts.

Ukraine
Tradecraft
3/7 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
March 7, 2022

Tradecraft – A couple of days ago, I got an email from an individual with a Russian last name, asking me to include him on my address list.  I didn’t recognize his name, so I asked him the name of the person on my address list who referred him.   His answer was, “someone on your address list.”  I asked him to give me a name.  I haven’t heard back from him.

If this is Russian tradecraft, then I guess my emails are getting some attention.   In the future, when someone wants to join my list and I don’t recognize who they are, and they don’t tell me the name of the person who made the referral, I will be asking them this question.   Obviously, I’m concerned about my own safety and that of the hard drive on my computer, but I’m more concerned about the safety of the people who are being kind enough, and courageous enough, to provide me with information, without which these emails would be impossible.

3/7 Sitrep – This is from my original contact, with my commentary in bold face:

Ukrainian Partisans – The attached MP-4 video shows a small group of Ukrainian Partisans taking out 2 Russian vehicles.  If this group serves as an accurate example, the partisans, otherwise known as Territorial Defense Forces, appear to be well-trained, well-clothed and well-armed.   They often operate in coordination with the regular Ukrainian Army.   A significant portion of the equipment being sent by the West, as described in this excellent article in yesterday’s NY Times, is focused on supplying Partisan groups like this one.

Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, focusing on the encirclement of Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Chernihiv, reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts, and creating a land corridor from occupied Crimea to the occupied parts of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts, collectively referred to as The Donbas.  

The land corridor, along the north side of the Sea of Azov, is approximately 250 km. long.   Establishing a land corridor between Crimea and Donbas has been a Russian objective since 2014.   The land corridor includes two major cities, Mariupol and Berdyansk.   Neither city has been taken, and citizens of Mariupol are suffering under a brutal siege.   Back in 2014 the estimate was that it would take approximately 50,000 Russian troops, or about 25% of the total number of Russian troops committed to today’s “special operation” in Ukraine, to hold the corridor and, because it is a narrow salient, the corridor would be exposed to regular Ukrainian Army and partisan attacks throughout its length.

Russia is regrouping northwest of Kyiv, including the famously stalled 30 km column to attempt to take Kyiv.  Concurrently it is regrouping in the Donbas, and north of the Crimean Peninsula.  The target in the Donbas is to try and reach the administrative boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.  Around Kyiv the invaders continue trying to take the satellite cities of Irpin and Bucha. 

In the context of this war, the word “regroup” doesn’t apply to waiting for reinforcements.  There aren’t any reinforcements.  It applies to situations where an advance is blocked, at which time columns are subjected to anti-tank rockets and missiles launched from drones.

Attempted Russian Encirclement of Kyiv - In the Polissya direction, the enemy is trying to establish full control over the cities of Bucha and Irpin and get closer to the capital of Ukraine.  The attacks on Irpin consist of tanks, followed by armored personnel carriers and supported by artillery, rocket attacks and aerial bombardment.   As mentioned yesterday, Irpin and Bucha are suburbs of Kyiv, located next to each other, to the west/northwest of Kyiv.   They lie just outside the Kyiv Ring Road.

From Belarus the Russians continue sending food and fuel through Chernobyl.  The Ukrainians operating the idle plant are now in their eleventh consecutive day without a shift change.  Russia is also trying to reach and attack satellite community of Brovary and parts of Boryspil county which borders Kyiv.    Brovary is located east/northeast of Kyiv and is the home to a number of large manufacturing plants, including the Coca-Cola bottling plant.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked the advance on Kyiv at Nova Basan.  The advance on Sumy faced counterattacks at Skrypali. Both counterattacks were successful and Russian forces pulled back.  Ukraine also retook Chyhuyev, a county center near Kharkiv.   Nova Basan is northeast of Kyiv, beyond Brovary.   Sumy is an oblast capital located around 4 hours’ drive northeast of Kyiv.   Sumy is close to the Russian border and, since the start of the conflict, Sumy has been the subject of intense fighting.   Skrypali is located between Sumy and Nova Basan.

Taken together, based on what is described, it seems as if the Ukrainians are being successful in cutting off an effort to encircle Kyiv from the east and northeast.   In addition to columns coming from the east and northeast, the status of the current Russian effort to encircle Kyiv seems to be as follows:

o  North/Northwest – the stalled 40-mile-long Russian convoy.
o  North – The failure to take Chernigiv appears to prevent Russians from advancing south, toward Kyiv.   Chernigiv blocks one of the Russian re-supply routes.
o  West/Northwest – As reported yesterday, one Russian column is trapped west of Kyiv, on the Kyiv-Chop Highway.   Behind them are Ukrainians at Makariv, and in front of them is the blown bridge crossing the Irpin River.
o  Northwest – Russian attempts to occupy Irpin and Bucha.
o  South – Possible Russian attempt to cross the Kyiv-Chop Highway is blocked.

Even if Russia is successful in encircling Kyiv, they likely don’t have enough troops to hold the line.

The South & East - Three armored groups from Crimea continue pressing north and the Russians were successful in taking a rail bridge over the Dniper at Antonivka and occupying Kashpero-Mykolaivka.   Antonivka is located on the Dniper River, just upstream from Kherson.  Kashpero-Mykolaivka is located due north of Mykolaiv.   Russians have already been thrown back in front of Mykolaiv.  Taken together, this seems to be a Russian effort to bypass Mykolaiv and move against Odesa from the north.

The invaders have lost area in the Donbas as well as taking some.  It appears that the front between Ukraine and Russia has not changed much since 2014.

Ukraine’s armed forces destroyed two field command posts, of the 61 Russian Marine Brigade and of the 11th Russian Paratrooper Brigade, killing commanding staff and colonel majors at both positions.

The Maps & What They Tell Us - The map below shows the reach of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The shaded ochre areas in the east and Crimea are occupied and controlled by Russia.  The veins extending from these areas and the Russian border with Ukraine show how far the invaders have advanced.  The points and circles on these veins are communities that have been invaded or circled.  However, when comparing maps tracking the invasion in major western Newspapers, such as the FT below to the Ministry of Defense map, it appears that large areas of the country are under Russia.

The Ministry of Defense Map is closer to reality because of the following: 

·       In the south, the FT shows Kherson and Melitopol as under Russian control.  Closer to reality there have been active massive daily demonstrations in these cities against the invaders since invading armies passed through, the city administrations continue to function as Ukrainian administrations and there are no civic organizations or groups backed by Russia or supporting Russia seeking to replace Ukrainian authorities.  The limited scope of control is evidenced by the continual presence of the Ukrainian flag on city and federal government buildings there.

·       The second reason is that the Russian occupiers face continual attacks by partisans and fear leaving their armored vehicles because the local citizens are armed.  Armed self-defense forces, organizations, and citizens are everywhere.  They are more widespread in the north but are widely present in the south.  As a result, when the invaders move between cities and towns or leave their vehicles they come under attack and are destroyed as in the attached file. 

·       The third reason is that the Ukrainian army and self-defense forces are counterattacking and taking positions “held” by Russians, including in the areas that are shown on the FT map as Russian controlled.  The Russians don’t have nearly enough troops to hold the areas that the FT claims are Russian controlled.

However, the most important reason why the Ministry of Defense map is more relevant than the typical maps that appear on the pages of international media is it shows how many columns are invading.  International media maps are misleading as they seem to portray a solid massive front when in fact Russians are attacking using semi-independent columns.  Today, if a column stops its GPS coordinates can be identified.  Once stopped and geographically positioned then Ukrainian artillery, rockets, aerial, or ground forces can eliminate.  This is an electronic war as well.

Russia is losing.  One reason I believe this to be true is the announced change in Russian Tactics - Yesterday Russia announced it will conduct aerial bombing raids on Ukraine’s military industrial complex.  Ukraine’s defense industry is in the top ten according to Janes.  Much of Ukraine’s defense industry is located in the cities of Kharkiv,  Dnipro and Zaporizhia.   Since 2014, the reconstitution of Ukraine’s defense industry is a major reason why Ukraine has had the wherewithal to fight as it is.  Russia’s refrain from bombing this complex, while at the same time continuing to bomb civilian targets, indicates that Russia believed that after taking Ukraine in 3 – 5 days, Russia would be able to use Ukraine to develop more armaments for itself.  It appears that Russia has now abandoned this belief that it will be a short conflict. 

·       When I say Russia, I mean Putin and his clique that started this war.  However, it is this clique that has limited or no understanding of Ukraine.  After many years of propagating myths about Ukraine, Russia’s rulers believe their own propaganda and ideology.  Since at least 2004, Russia has made one idiotic mistake after another in Ukraine, including:
o  2004 – Putin going to Ukraine to campaign for Yanukovich.
o  2014 – The annexation of Crimea and the occupation of parts of Donbas made Ukraine more “Ukrainian,” resulting in vastly increased cohesion as a nation.  Today, we’re seeing the results, in Ukraine’s willingness to fight for its freedom and survival  as a country.
o  2018/19 – Independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
o  2022 – The invasion.

·       In this they are no different than the Communists of the past, or even dimmer times of Czarist aristocracy.   There have been many efforts to suppress Ukraine as a state, along with its culture and language.  All of them have failed.  Putin is only the latest.  Previous examples include, but are not limited to:
o  Late 18th Century – Catherine the Great
o  Mid 19th Century - Czar Nicholas I – Exiled Taras Shevchenko, Ukraine’s poet laureate, to what is now Kazakhstan.  Suppression of the Greek Catholic Church.
o  1930’s – Stalin and the Famine.
o  2022 – Putin

Today’s invasion is having much the same effect as the Crimean War.   It has exposed the Russian Army for all to see, to be an ineffective institution, incapable of mounting a large, coordinated offensive against a supposedly weaker, but committed, foe.

Russian myopia regarding Ukraine is so widespread in Russia, and in numerous western circles that remain Russophile, that they believed Ukraine would welcome Russian invaders at best and at worst the fighting would last no more than a week.  Russians came with three days of food and fuel, not thinking they would have to fight very hard to just stay alive.  Russia’s rulers told soldiers to take dress uniforms that are being discovered in abandoned Russian personnel carriers.  They believed and still believe they will have victory parades.  Russia’s failure to adjust to reality today is no different from the past.

Russia’s biggest delusion in this regard starts with Ukraine but it extends across the entire Russian federation.  What Russia calls regions, such as Dagestan or Buryatia, are in reality the homelands of subjugated nations.  Today, a number of Ukrainians  are  working with minority groups inside  Russia, to sow discord, promote draft resistance, and help them resist Russian pressure on their native languages and cultures.   Russia’s failure in Ukraine is the start of its failure in so called Russia. 

As a friend of mine once asked me - where are Russia’s borders?