Ukraine – 8/5/2023 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
August 5th, 2023
The Ukraine War Ebook, “The Ukrainian People vs. The Russian Horde”
The Ukraine War Ebook we sent to those who were kind enough to support us, that included all our emails that we sent during the first week of the war, has been very well received. Since early July, when the Ebook was released, we have added several new email recipients. For new recipients, plus existing recipients who would like to receive the Ebook, we would be happy to send you a copy in return for your support for our efforts. If you would like to support us in any amount, and receive an Ebook as our gesture of gratitude, please click on the link HERE. Your support is greatly appreciated!
Yesterday’s Naval Drone Attack
There was more to yesterday’s naval drone attack on the amphibious ship in the Russian port of Novorossiysk.
As “Reporting From Ukraine” shows in his video the damaging of the Russian amphibious ship was only 1 element of multi-pronged drone attack conducted by Ukraine on Crimea and the Russian Port of Novorossiysk. The attack including the following elements:
· Update on the attack on the amphibious ship –
o Russia appeared to be very lucky not to lose the ship. Had the rescue tugs not arrived when they did, the ship might’ve capsized. Depending on the location the ship might’ve blocked the harbor entrance, shutting off Russia’s major port for the export of oil and grain.
o Repairs will be difficult. According to the “Latest Denys” the nearest drydock where the ship can be repaired is in Sevastopol, a city already under increased Ukrainian drone assault. Getting the ship to Sevastopol will be very problematic. Without a naval escort, sea drones could finish her off in the open Black Sea. A naval escort would tie down much of the rest of the Black Sea Fleet, and it would open the escorts to attack.
o Oil slick – Denys reported that the ship, now berthed in Novorossiysk Harbor, is leaking oil. Unless a way can be found to siphon the oil out of the ship, there is the potential of the leaking oil fouling the entire harbor.
o Loss of the ship damages Russia’s military logistics. With the degradation of the Kerch Bridge to move supplies from the Russian mainland to Crimea, Russia has been relying on this ship to move supplies. This is the 2nd Russian amphibious ship that Russia has lost during the war, having lost a similar ship last year in Berdyansk Harbor.
o Russia cannot replace this ship, as it would require bring in a similar ship from their Northern or Baltic Fleets. Turkey has blocked access to the Black Sea for any naval combatants.
· Other targets in yesterday’s drone assault –
o The drone that sank the ship in Novorossiysk Harbor was part of an attack by several sea drones. One heavily damaged, or perhaps sunk, a Russian tanker sailing in the open Black Sea, about 30 nautical miles (34 statute miles) south of the Kerch bridge.
o Other sea drones attacked the Kerch Bridge itself, with unconfirmed results. The bridge was immediately closed for a period of time.
o An airborne drone hitting an oil depot in Feodosia, Crimea, along the south coast of Crimea southwest of the Kerch Bridge.
As the Head of the Harvard Ukraine Research Institute, Serhii Plokhiy, stated in an interview on Times Radio, yesterday’s attack gave credibility to Pres. Zelenskyy’s recent statement that any ship bound for or leaving a Black Sea port in Russia or temporarily occupied Ukraine, is subject to attack. Ukraine, with no navy to speak of other than some patrol boats and a riverine force operating the Dnipro Delta, now dominates surface warfare on the Black Sea. The areas where Russia maintains an advantage is in submarines, including submarines capable of launching cruise missiles, and in the air.
The Tech War
“Ukraine’s Tech Sector Goes to War”/FT - This absolutely fascinating video produced by the Financial Times covers the advances Ukraine is making in drone warfare, and the application of technologies like 3-D printing and artificial intelligence to the design, building and operation of drones. Thank you to Vera, one of our email recipients, for sending it along.
The video includes interviews with a number of founders of drone manufacturing companies, and with Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation. Fedorov is in his early 30s.
While I was watching the video, I couldn’t help but wonder what it would take, and how long, to get one of these drones from the design stage, the prototype stage, through the Pentagon bureaucracy and into the field in the United States. In addition to the technology itself, Ukraine has a lot to teach the United States in working with small companies in weapons procurement.
Ukraine has already developed 2 relatively inexpensive, and low-cost, mine clearing devices. One of them is an attachment to a farm tractor. I would expect to see more of these companies focusing on mine clearing, the one thing that is slowing down Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Someone pointed out recently that Ukraine needed a “Manhattan Project focused on mine clearing.” As with the development of the drones, they will find elegant solutions, in close collaboration with Ukrainian sappers on the ground.
Cyber Warfare - This video, from the Kyiv Independent, describes where Ukraine was prior to the start of the war in developing cyber defenses. Between January 14, 2022, when Ukraine experienced its first major cyber-attack, and just over 1 month later, at the start of Russia’s latest invasion, Ukraine was able to develop the defenses necessary to combat Russia’s cyber-attacks.
News From the Battlefield
“War Notes”/Kyiv Independent – Among other things, he describes the difficulty of clearing mines – 3 to 5 mines/square meter. War Notes is worth subscribing to.
“How Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed”/Institute for the Study of War – Frederick Kagan and colleagues
This is a very long article, so I’ll include some excerpts from a section called “Prospects:”
· “The Ukrainians still have the initiative in the theater overall and especially in the south. They choose when, where, and how they will attack. The Russians must defend everywhere and always. The theater geometry may come to play a critical role here as well—the Russians have to win every time; the Ukrainians only have to win once.”
· “Ukrainian forces may begin to grind through the Russian defenses 500 or 1,000 meters a day for a time in several locations, creating a series of footholds in the Russian lines until they reach points threatening the Russians’ ability to continue to hold the areas in between these footholds. This pattern shaped the first parts of the Kherson counter-offensive and led to a rather sudden Russian withdrawal from their initial lines to a much smaller pocket.” My bold face – In evaluating the current counter-offensive, the pundits always seem to forget what happened last year, on the Right Bank of the Dnipro River when, after 2 months of tough going Russian defenders broke.
· “The defensive belts the Russians have established full of dense and well-laid minefields do not appear to extend more than 10-15 miles from the front lines in most areas. Unless they are able to establish new lines further to the rear as their defending forces fight and withdraw, they will find themselves at some point having to defend much less well prepared positions.” This seems to be beginning to happen. The authors also wonder if Russia has enough troops to man the multiple defensive lines they have built.
· “As long as Ukrainian forces continue periodically to move forward and the Russians prove unable simply to stop them and hold them, the war will not be stalemated.” The authors believe that the counteroffensive will go on through the Winter, and mud will slow, but not stop, the advance. It is doubtful that the ground will freeze in the south; it is more likely to freeze in the north, from Donetsk City up through Luhansk.
· “Less likely scenarios could lead to more rapid Ukrainian gains. The Ukrainians could figure out how to cohere their various bits of Western and Soviet kit into an effective penetration force and drive through the Russian lines rapidly at one or two locations, unhinging the Russian defenses. It is impossible from outside the Ukrainian military to know if the counteroffensive begun on July 26 is meant to achieve such a large objective, let alone whether it can. It is, however, definitely plausible that the war could take such a turn.” What the authors describe may already be happening, in at least 2 areas in the South.
· “Still another unlikely but possible scenario is that the Russian forces suffer a general collapse under protracted Ukrainian pressure and break in important sections of the line even in the absence of a Ukrainian penetration.” It is likely that Ukrainian attacks against Russian logistics is an attempt to make this outcome more likely but, as the authors suggest, there is no indication so far that this will happen but, when it does happen it often happens suddenly.
8/5/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon August 4 to 12:00 noon August 5, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Saturday, August 5
8:13 am: The Bulgarian government has supported the transfer of 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, - Bulgarian National Radio.
8:13 am: Germany confirmed its participation in the peace summit in Saudi Arabia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's advisor will represent Berlin. This is reported by FAZ.
8:13 am: France refuses to withdraw its troops from Niger, - France 24.
8:56 am: Lithuania is preparing to send NASAMS launchers to Ukraine and has shown a photo of the previously transferred military aid, including Mi-8 helicopters.
● This was reported to the Ministry of Defense of the country.
● "In the near future, NASAMS missile launch systems, anti-drones, material and technical equipment, clamshells and much more will be handed over to Ukraine," the department says.
Friday, August 4
2:05 pm: Japan will ask Iran to stop supplying arms to Russia, Reuters reports.
● Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian is said to be visiting Tokyo on Sunday, where he will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
4:15 pm: In September, six thousand Russians will receive letters from the Directorate of Citizenship and Migration Affairs of Latvia asking them to leave the country.
● This was reported by the head of the Sejm Commission on Citizenship, Migration and Social Solidarity, Ingmars Lidak, the Latvian publication Delfi reports.
● According to her, we are talking about those who did not even try to pass the check for acquiring the status of a permanent resident of the EU. After that, they must leave Latvia within three months. If they do not leave, they will be fined.
4:37 pm: China will take part in the meeting on Ukraine's peace plan, which will be held in Saudi Arabia.
● This was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
● Beijing will be represented by special representative for Eurasian affairs Li Hui, who visited Ukraine in May.
4:54 pm: Germany slows down the supply of promised weapons to Ukraine, writes Welt.
● According to the publication, after Zelenskyi's visit to Berlin in May, only 10 of the 110 Leopard tanks promised were delivered.
● And two dozen Marder BMPs and the Iris-T air defense system were not sent at all.
5:15 pm: The Bulgarian government has approved the supply of about a hundred armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, — mass media.
● It is about the approval of the draft agreement between the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Bulgaria and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the free provision of armored personnel carriers.
● Publications note that the transfer of armored personnel carriers may begin even before the ratification of the agreement in the Bulgarian parliament.
10:12 pm: Volodymyr Zelenskyy considers the participation of representatives of the countries of the Global South at the meeting in Jeddah to be very important.
● "This is very important, because in matters such as food security, the fate of millions of people in Africa, in Asia, in other parts of the world directly depends on how fast the world will be in implementing the Peace Formula," the president said in a video message.
10:27 pm: The German government has updated the list of military aid provided to Ukraine.
● The updated list includes:
o 2 HEALTH Zuzana 2;
o 2 Wisent 1 demining tanks;
o 11 anti-mine plows for T-72 tanks;
o 5 SurveilSPIRE intelligence systems;
o 9 border guard vehicles;
o 3 reconnaissance UAVs Vector.
10:52 pm: World football stars have arrived in London, where the Game4Ukraine charity match will take place tomorrow.
● Training just ended: Shevchenko scored Chekha, and Arveladze scored Dida.
● Game4Ukraine will be available to watch worldwide for free tomorrow.
NATIONAL
Saturday, August 5
12:10 am: If the Russian Federation does decide to use a "nuclear weapon" in Ukraine, there will be no special air warning signal. This was reported by Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat.
● "The Armed Forces will not be able to find out in advance which warhead the missile carries, so all aerial targets must be destroyed during their flight," he said.
6:57 am General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the Russians continue to use civilian educational institutions in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine for their own purposes.
● It was established that about 100 Russian servicemen were stationed in the Mykhailivka settlement of Zaporizhzhya region, on the territory of a secondary school.
● During the day, the aviation of the defense forces carried out 9 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation. Also, our defenders destroyed 2 Shahed-136 type strike UAVs - General Staff of the Armed Forces.
● Over the past 24 hours, units of missile forces and artillery have hit 9 artillery pieces on firing positions and 2 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment.
7:30 am: At night, the SBU blew up a large oil tanker of the Russian Federation "SIG", which was transporting fuel for the Russian troops
● According to our SBU sources, the special operation took place according to the classic scenario: a surface drone, 450 kg of TNT, an explosion. As a result, one of the most powerful oil tankers of the Russian Federation (built in 2014, almost 5 thousand tons) began to sink near the Crimean bridge.
9:19 am: Head of the SBU Vasyl Malyuk commented on the recent attacks by surface drones on Russian ships
● "Any "cotton" that happens with the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean bridge is a logical and effective step in relation to the enemy. Moreover, such special operations are carried out in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," said the Head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk.
9:30 am: ATTENTION! All of Ukraine is a missile hazard! Takeoff of the MiG-31K, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:14 am: Attention! Eastern, southeastern regions - ballistic threat! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:33 am: First group of Ukrainian pilots formed for F-16 training, — Politico
● Eight Ukrainian pilots who speak English fluently are ready to begin training on American fighter jets. The date of the start of these exercises has not been announced.
● Another 20 pilots from Ukraine will take English language courses in Great Britain before starting F-16 training.
11:27 am: ATTENTION! The threat of using ballistics in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Zaporizhia regions, where an air alert has been announced! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11:38 am: ATTENTION! All of Ukraine is a missile hazard! MiG-31K take off from Savasleika airfield. Don't ignore the air alert! - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Friday, August 4
12:25 pm Operational Command South: Russia launched an underwater missile carrier with "Kalibra" into the Black Sea, detection of launches is difficult
● "The ship group of the enemy is really deploying a large, numerous one. Now there are 15 units in the Black Sea, one traditionally in the Azov Sea," Humenyuk said.
12:40 pm: The bodies of 44 more fallen defenders were returned to Ukraine, the Ministry of Reintegration reported.
● After identification, they will be handed over to their relatives for burial.
1:43 pm: The take-off of the MiG-31K PKS fighter jet of the Russian Federation from the Savasleika airfield was recorded, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
2:34 pm: An air alert has been sounded throughout Ukraine, except for the Zaporizhzhia region, temporarily occupied Crimea and Luhansk region.
3:36 pm: GUR representative Andriy Yusov said that the events in Novorossiysk are a "serious slap in the face" for the Putin regime.
● "In terms of security, of course, this is a big loss for the occupiers' fleet and the planning of further amphibious operations. The use of these vessels becomes more problematic, and this is a serious factor that the occupiers will take into account," Yusov added.
3:57 pm: Russian troops are trying to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces in the east, - Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense Hanna Malyar.
● According to her, Ukrainian fighters are repelling enemy attacks in the Kupyan, Lyman and Swativ directions. There, the number of enemy shelling has increased, heavy battles are taking place.
● The enemy's goal is to draw our forces away from the offensive direction and break through our defenses, Malyar added.
10:38 pm: Eastern, southeastern regions - the threat of using ballistics.
● This was reported in the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
11:33 pm: 4 men tried to cross the border illegally in the hiding place of a minibus.
● Although the driver assured that he had no cargo, he was still sent for an in-depth inspection. Four men of military age were found in the hiding place of the minibus.
● They paid $4,000 each for the trip.
MORDOR - RUZZIA
Saturday, August 5
12:21 am: Russian social networks report explosions and gunshots near the Crimean Bridge.
● It is reported that the lighting on the bridge is turned off, the entrances and exits are blocked.
12:36 am: Russia has increased funding for the army to $100 billion in 2023, which is 30% of all government spending, Reuters.
1:45 am: We ourselves cannot move. Without tug. The engine room is flooded, a recording of negotiations from the sunken tanker "Sig" in the Kerch Strait.
4:19 am: The Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue and Coordination Center was informed about a group of rescuers that advanced to the tanker "SIG", - rosZMI.
8:13 am: The Russian Federation seeks to force the West to make significant concessions in exchange for unblocking the "grain deal", - ISW.
9:48 am: Russia and Ukraine conducted a new exchange of bodies of those killed in the war zone.
● According to the Russian side, the Russian Federation handed over 44 bodies to Ukraine, Ukraine - 160 bodies to the Russian Federation.
Friday, August 4
1:10 pm: According to SBU materials, Russian oligarch, president of CSKA football club (Moscow) Yevhen Giner, who supplies the Russian army with ammunition for killing Ukrainians, was suspected.
● According to the investigation, after February 24, 2022, Giner as the owner of the Russian JSC KBAL named after Koshkina" instructed the company's management to ensure an uninterrupted supply of cartridges for the Russian army.
● Based on the collected evidence, the Russian oligarch was notified of suspicion under Part 5 of Art. 27, Part 3 of Art. 110 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (assistance in encroachment on the territorial integrity and inviolability of Ukraine). The sanction of the articles provides for life imprisonment with confiscation of property.
1:45 pm: The construction of the factory for the production of "shahed" in the Russian Federation is 80% completed, - the Pentagon.
● According to the data currently available to the American side, the plant will be under construction at least from the spring of 2023. It is located in the Republic of Tatarstan, hundreds of kilometers east of Moscow.
● Iran actively supplies the Kremlin with construction equipment. Experts assume that the plant can start operating as early as April next year.
5:36 pm: Oleksiy Navalny was sentenced to 19 years in a special regime colony, — rosZMI.
● It is reported that he was found guilty of seven episodes under six articles of the criminal code.
● He is accused of creating an extremist community, calling for extremism, rehabilitating Nazism, etc.
11:54 pm Social Networks: An explosion near the Crimean Bridge.
REGIONS
CHERNIHIV
Friday, August 4
3:17 pm: Commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhii Naev, during a working trip to the Chernihiv Region, visited the positions of the State Border Guard Service fighters.
● Nayev checked the state and conditions of service by the border guards, discussed with the command staff the situation at the state border and the issue of interaction between the units of the law enforcement agencies that are part of the Defense Forces.
SUMY
Saturday, August 5
11:59 am Sumy RMA: During the night and morning, the Russians fired 5 shots. 22 explosions were recorded.
● 3 settlements in three territorial communities were shelled: Khotynska, Seredino-Budska, and Shalyginska. They were fired from artillery, mortars and grenade launchers.
● Previously - without human losses and destruction of civil infrastructure.
KHARKIV
Saturday, August 5
10:13 am Kharkiv RMA: Last day, the Russians shelled the settlements of Bogodukhiv, Kharkiv, Chuguiv, Izyum and Kupyan districts of the region.
● As a result of shelling of the village Petropavlivka, Kupyan district, farm buildings were damaged, there were fires.
● No casualties among the civilian population were recorded.
Friday, August 4
1:26 pm: Yesterday evening, the Russians launched a massive artillery attack on the village of Petropavlivka, Kupyan district, Kharkiv region, the State Emergency Service reported.
● As a result of shelling, the roof of a residential building and two outbuildings caught fire on the territory of the private sector.
● The total area of the fire was about 500 square meters. There are no victims or injured.
DONETSK
Friday, August 4
12:55 pm Donetsk RMA: On the Donetsk direction in Kurakhivka, 1 person died, 2 were injured; 3 houses were destroyed, 7 more were damaged.
● 16 houses in the North and 3 houses in New York were damaged in the Horliv direction in the Toretska community. 2 houses were damaged in the Chasovoyarsk community.
● On the Lysychansky direction, 4 houses were damaged in Zvanivka, 2 houses, a shop and a school were damaged in Pereizny. In Yampol of the Lyman community, 1 house was destroyed and 1 was damaged. 2 houses were damaged in Siversk.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday, August 5
1:28 am Social Networks: An explosion was heard in Zaporizhzhia.
10:59 am Zaporizhia RMA: 92 shellings on 24 settlements per day - residents of the region were not injured.
● So far, 26 reports have been received about the destruction of houses, apartments and infrastructure facilities as a result of enemy strikes in Zaporizhzhya, Vasylivskyi and Pologivskyi districts.
Friday, August 4
11:39 pm: Zaporizhzhia region - threat of use of attack UAVs.
11:45 pm: Zaporizhzhia - in shelter, warned the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
DNIPRO
Saturday, August 5
8:13 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region.
8:36 am Dnipro RMA: Russians struck the Nikopol district three times during the night.
● They fired a dozen shells from heavy artillery at Nikopol and the Marganets community. No dead or injured. The consequences of shelling are being investigated.
KHERSON
Friday, August 4
12:05 pm Kherson RMA: Over the past day, the enemy launched 53 attacks, firing 241 shells from mortars, artillery, Grads, tanks, UAVs and aircraft. The enemy fired 42 shells at the city of Kherson.
● the Russian military targeted the residential quarters of the populated areas of the region; the territory and building of the church, the territory of the park, the building of a religious institution, a cinema, an infrastructure object, a shopping center, the territory of a medical institution and the building of a penitentiary institution in Kherson.
2:40 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
3:39 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
9:50 pm Kherson RMA: Russians attacked the center of Berislav from a drone.
● "The explosive was thrown into the yard of a local resident. A 48-year-old man was seriously injured.
● He was hospitalized with head injuries. Doctors are fighting for the victim's life," the message reads.
9:56 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
10:56 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:47 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio
The drone evolution is much faster in war. Drones were deployed at scale in Vietnam. During that period much of the procurement was done using black budget funding and a waiver for normal processes. The drones evolved from very simply navigation into fully INS and TERCOM versions with optical scene matching under development. Strike versions were tested but not deployed. So evolution can happen rapidly when needed.