Bob Homans August 16

20220817

Ukraine – 8/16 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
August 16, 2022

A Village Store

Often, it seems we spend too much time talking about the war, politics, and other similar subjects, and not enough time talking about the impact of the war on ordinary Ukrainians, especially those living in small villages.   It is the villages throughout Ukraine where much of the destruction of civilian property and loss of life has taken place.   Watch one of Denys’ videos, and you’ll likely hear him talking about one village or another changing hands, with the concurrent destruction and loss of life.

A friend of mine’s mother owns a store in a village south of Kyiv.  They sell food, and various types of sundries.    This is a description of the role these stores play in Ukraine, and how the war is tearing at the social fabric of villages everywhere in Ukraine, through increasing the difficulties stores like hers face in staying open.

The store is the only retail food store in the village.   The village is immaculate, with a nice park and no trash on the streets.   The store has done well over the years.   She employs 2-3 people, and the store has undergone at least one major expansion.   As is the case with many family-owned businesses in Ukraine, she has her usual battle with tax authorities, building inspectors and other officials, all of whom continually ask for bribes.    Since the war started the store has taken on an additional role beyond selling food and sundries, becoming a meeting place where townspeople can come and obtain information, share stories, and hear about the experiences of townspeople who are fighting at the front.

My friends mother buys most of the products that she sells in and around Kyiv, around 85 km. to the north, at various wholesale outlets that sell to stores like hers without charging Value-Added Tax (VAT).  They have a van, which they use to buy the products.   They travel to Kyiv at least once a week.

Since the war started, they’ve faced the following challenges:

·       They must leave their house just as the nightly curfew is lifted, to be first in line at the checkpoint leaving their village, as well as other checkpoints on the way to Kyiv.

·       They buy anything they can find, in maximum quantities, because they don’t know if an item will be available during their next trip.  This requires them to tie up more cash in inventory than is normal.

·       If an air raid siren goes off when they’re in the store, and then haven’t paid, they must immediately leave their items and go to the shelter, running the risk of someone taking what they intended to buy.

Then they must worry about protecting their store.   In the event of a Russian occupation, she has told her children that she will not leave the village, because the store means too much to the village.   She has an 80-year-old mother, who raises goats.  Her mother will not leave.

Times Radio – Conversation with John Rich, CEO of MHP

This is an interview with John Rich, CEO of MHP. 

MHP is largest agricultural company in Ukraine, and one of the world’s largest poultry producers.   They are vertically integrated.   According to Foreign Policy Magazine, in 2017 MHP exported 220,983 tons of chicken meat to 63 countries and employed nearly 28,000 people.   Yuriy Koziuk, Founder and CEO of MHP, is one of the few oligarchs in Ukraine who built his company from the ground up.  He started MHP with 10 people.   MHP is one of the few Ukrainian companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.   Koziuk owns 60% of the company.

Referring to the situation today, in the interview John Rich made the following points:

·       The current situation with exports, ships leaving Black Sea ports, is very unstable.  A Russian missile can strike a ship, or a large grain handling facility, at any time, substantially reducing the ability to move grain and the availability of ships.

·       Grain prices are currently down, but he doesn’t believe that will continue.

·       2023 plantings will be governed by logistics, transport, handling facilities, etc.   Major decisions about 2023 will be made in the next 8 weeks.

·       Ukraine needs to get to the point where it sustains itself, not relying on Western support, and agriculture must play a key role.

Times Radio – Does Russia Have Enough Equipment to Support a Full-Scale Mobilization?

Interview with MGEN Chip Chapman (Ret).   Key takeaways:

·       Ukraine continues to hit Russian command and control centers, like yesterday’s destruction of the Headquarters of the Wagner Group in Popasna, temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast, ammunition dumps including yesterday in Crimea, logistics including the 4 bridges cutting off 2 divisions of Russian soldiers on the Right Bank of the Dnieper around Kherson City, in the hope that Russians will surrender.

·       Even if Russia goes to a general mobilization, Gen. Chapman doesn’t believe Russia has the military equipment that they’d need to support the additional personnel being mobilized.

·       He thinks Ukraine is using “HARM” anti-radiation missiles to take out Russia’s S-300 and even S-400 anti-aircraft system.

·       He believes that the 12 MiG 29s coming from Slovakia, along with possibly F-16s and A-10s from the US, are critical to Ukraine’s ability to achieve full air control and go on a major offensive.

·       He believes that the Russian forces trapped on the right bank of the Dnieper will eventually lose their will to fight, and they’ll surrender.

It is worth remembering that in late March/early April Russian forces around Kyiv, whom everyone expected would march in and take the capital, likely lost their will and withdrew.  Ukraine didn’t force them out.  It’s possible that the same thing will happen around Kherson.

The Latest Denys

Key takeaways from Denys’ report:

·       Bakhmut – Russia is pressing an attack, possibly from 3 angles.   I assume that Ukraine is following its usual strategy, of gradually withdrawing, causing maximum Russian casualties, and hitting staging areas and logistics.   My best friend’s daughter has a “significant other” who is fighting with the Ukrainian Army in front of Bakhmut.

·       Wagner HQ – Potentially the most significant development in the destruction of the Headquarters of the Wagner Group at Popasna would be the possible death of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the benefactor of the Wagner Group and a member of Putin’s inner circle.   He is known as “Putin’s Chef.”   He was rumored to have visited the headquarters around the time of the attack.

·       Kherson – Russians assigned to military headquarters in Kherson have moved out of Kherson City to the opposite bank of the Dnieper River.

Other Developments

·       Two more attacks in Crimea.  The first on an ammunition dump in the eastern part of Crimea and north of Kirovskiy. that also destroyed a rail line that leads up to Mariupol.  The second against an airbase near Simferopol, one of 3 airbases in or north of Simferopol, including the commercial airport.  It is not well-understood that these bases were part of the lease agreement, that gave Russia use of Sevastopol the Headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.   These bases made it far easier for Russia to move against Simferopol in February 2014.

·       Yesterday, there was record single day car traffic across the Kerch Bridge, mostly heading out of Crimea.