Bob Homans April 9

20220409

Ukraine – 4/9 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
April 9, 2022

Orchestre de Paris

The National Anthem of Ukraine, led by the American conductor, Marin Alsop.

Hearing of the U.S. Helsinki Commission – “Countering Oligarchs, Enablers & Lawfare”

Go to the 34th Minute of this video, and watch the comments of Daria Kaleniuk, Head of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Center (AnTac).  Daria’s remarks are approximately 5 minutes.   I played a small role in getting Daria included on this panel.   Daria has never been shy about speaking truth to power, a trait that is especially evident in her very powerful remarks before the U.S. Helsinki Commission.   Being an anti-corruption activist in Ukraine is a dangerous business, and that was true before the war with Russia.   Vitaliy Shabunin, Daria’s colleague at AnTac, had his house burned down at a time when his parents were inside. Fortunately, they escaped without injury.   Bill Browder is also on this panel.

Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces -  Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy

This article, from Politico, covers not only Gen. Zaluzhnyy, but also describes what may be the crucial factor in Ukraine’s success on the battlefield – the ability of small units to operate independently with lethal results.  

The supplies of weapons Ukraine is currently receiving from the West is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to explain Ukraine’s success.  For at least the past 15 years military advisers from Western countries, including the U.S., have been working with Ukraine’s Armed Forces to instill respect for junior and non-commissioned officers, something that has never caught on with Ukraine’s Russian opponents.   As the article states, “That collaboration with NATO has molded a group of professional-minded officers that aspired to Western standards and helped build a decentralized, empowered, more agile way of warfare than the Russian model, which has floundered in the Ukrainian mud.”  “That training and battlefield experience against the Russians and their separatist proxies in Donbas allowed commanders of small, dispersed units to think for themselves, overturning the old Soviet model of top-down leadership that has paralyzed Russian units and forced top generals to venture to the front lines, where several have been killed.”

4/9 Sitrep –

(Comments from me are in Bold Face)

It’s spring, time to melt Muscovites.

The photograph was taken yesterday, and my collaborator’s dacha.  This is the first time that he has been able to visit his dacha since the start of the war, and only then after de-mining of the surrounding area was completed.

Ukraine’s flora was until recently, shaped in three climatic zones.  These are the steppe, forest-steppe and forest.  Russia’s invasion of the Forest zone, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy was defeated.  A partial explanation for Russia’s defeat in northern Ukraine relies on difficulties associated with moving men and equipment through the forest zone.  Russia retreated from this zone after losing at least 40% of its attacking capacity.

I would hate to be the general reporting to Putin, “Vladimir Vladimirovich, you see the forest beat us.”

The international community is focused on Russia’s military retreat to Russia and restructuring of its failed forces inside of Russia.  This overlooks Russia’s military failures in other parts of Ukraine. 

In the steppe it has been pushed out of Mykolaiv and is losing half of Kherson, including the city.  It was not able to take Donbas or Zaporizhia.  Russia has not taken Kharkiv or gone farther than 50 kilometers from the Russian border with Kharkiv.  The Pentagon estimates that over all theaters of war Russia has lost a minimum 20% of its capacity.

The litany of Russia’s defeats includes intelligence failure, denied air superiority, and blasted economic defenses.  Add to this strategic, field command and logistic incompetence.  Regrouping and rearming the northern force, do not change Russia’s inherent weakness. 

Where is the “re-grouping and re-arming?”  The only significant available replacements for Russia’s losses around Kyiv are draftees who were inducted approximately 1 week ago.  They will require at least 4 months of training before being fully able to go into combat.  Since Russia desperately wants a victory to celebrate on May 9th, Victory Day commemorating the end of WW-II, it is possible that Russia will decide to put untrained draftees into the fight in Eastern Ukraine.

Two key Russian allies, Belarus and China provide minimal support, but cannot be counted on.  Yesterday Russian soldiers were knee capped by Belarus guerilla’s success in destroying rail tracks, the 12th recorded Belarus attack on infrastructure vital to the Russia’s ability to move its troops from north of Kyiv to areas opposite Eastern Ukraine.  Russian soldiers have begun raping in Belarus, and its military is interfering with civilian transport.  Belarus police and public opinion is increasingly hostile to Russia and are physically attacking and interfering with Russian movement.  Belarus forces are being sent back to bases and their commanding officers are being replaced with Russians, because the Belarus army is preparing to surrender or switch sides if it crosses the border with Ukraine.

China, unlike the west, is not supplying Russia with game changing armaments or support.  Instead, it is looking to gain maximum economic advantage while avoiding western sanctions, from its purchases of Russian raw resources.  China is also backing away from purchases of Russian weapons systems after seeing how poorly they perform in Ukraine.  India, a major purchaser of Russian weapons systems, may well make the same decision.

Russia started the war against Ukraine but is now on its own against a united West and a very united and hostile Ukraine.  Russia did not expect that the ground would shift beneath its feet, and seek to swallow it whole.

This is not the first time Russia has faced seemingly insurmountable odds in history.  Its response to its current situation will be based on this history.  For the Russian autocrat, his courtiers and military the most relevant historical experience is the battle for Kursk during WWII.  The regrouping and rearming is expected to enable a sweeping movement of Russian tanks and equipment to catch the battle hardened Ukrainian army in a pincer.  Once Ukrainian forces are encircled in the broad steppe, they will be destroyed like the Soviets destroyed the Wehrmacht. 

The rosy reference to the past, which continues to befuddle Russian decision making regarding this brutal war, is an illusion just as destructive as Russia’s illusion that it would win in three days.  Unlike Kursk, where waves of Russian tanks rolled forward without opposition, every kilometer will be through hostile territory against a skilled foe, planning defenses and counter attacks, armed with weapons capable of destroying any piece of Russian equipment.  Unlike Kursk the foe will know in minute detail Russia’s intentions much better than the Russian soldier, and much better than the Russian command.  Unlike Kursk the foe will have equivalence in the air.  Unlike Kursk the foe will have no logistics or supply issues.

Another analogy being trotted out by the pundits is the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland, that took place between November 1939 and March 1940.  Initially, the Soviets took substantial losses, but eventually they prevailed by applying overwhelming power.  There are many parallels, except 1 – despite supportive words from Winston Churchill, among others, Finland had no Western military support.

Should Russia believe that an amphibious attack gives it an advantage it is worth remembering that 11% of Allied casualties in all of WWII occurred on D Day.  Odesa is ready to try and exceed that number.   A successful amphibious operation usually requires a 3 – 4/1 advantage in favor of the invaders.  Russia has no such advantage, and they have not had a successful amphibious operation since 1943, when the Soviets landed at Karch, on the eastern end of Crimea. Ukraine recently took delivery from Great Britain of the Harpoon anti-ship missile and, in addition they have their own anti-ship missile, the Neptune, with a range of 300 km.  There are a very small number of beaches near Odessa that are conducive to a contested amphibious landing.  Ukraine knows where those beaches are located.

Ukraine has no illusions that Russia will sue for peace.  It will receive this attack and then destroy the attackers.  The counter attacks will not stop at the imagined border of puppet states but inside the Russian federation.  Then genuine peace negotiations will begin.

Today we are reporting events in Ukraine and that impact the Ukrainian Russian war that occurred between 12:00 April 7, 2022 and 12:00 April 9, 2022 Kyiv time.

Demonstrators in Berlin, Warsaw, Vilnius and Tbilisi lay face down with their hands tied behind their with white ribbons to commemorate the Bucha massacre.  The Berlin demonstration demanded ending all Russian fossil fuel imports.  There were demonstrations protesting Bucha and supporting Ukraine in Koln.

The president of the European Parliament said yesterday that EU energy imports from directly and indirectly finance Russia’s war against Ukraine.  She said that EU needs to be independent of Russia’s energy resources.

Ukraine’s ambassador demonstratively walked out of a briefing given by Israel’s defense minister called the war in Ukraine a conflict.

A Belarus intelligence officer was killed by a personnel mine left behind by Russian forces.  The officer was examining a site where Russians had camped out for the last few days.

Britain’s minister of defense announced that Great Britain will immediately send to Ukraine:

·        800 Nlaw anti tank missiles

·        Additional Javelin missiles

·        Additional Star Streak missiles and launchers

·        Combat gear.

Slovakia is sending Ukraine a C-300 Soviet made air defense system.

The mayor of Vilnius said the city will not give permits for parades or demonstrations to commemorate May 9.  He said that celebrations honoring Soviet victory in WWII are not on while Russia is invading Ukraine.

Greek Cypriot president said that Cyprus will provide Ukraine with its Soviet armaments.

Latest sanctions:

·        Taiwan 57 high technology components for weapons targeting

·        European Parliament passed a resolution requiring immediate cessation of Russian energy imports.

·        Latvia withdrew permission to provide temporary residence status to Russian and Belarus citizens.

·        United States department of trade banned parts exports to Russia’s Aeroflot, Azur Air and Utair.

·        Great Britain sanctioned Putin’s and Lavrov’s children.

·        France is banning Russian crude oil imports after the incident in Kramatorsk

·        European Commission published a list 12 additional Russians that are sanctioned

·        European Commission froze the European assets of VTB bank, Novukombank, Sovcombank, Otkrtia Bank and 14 large industrial and transportation conglomerates.

·        Finland barred Russian and Belarus transport trucks.

·        European Commission gave to April 16 for all registered Russian and Belarus trucks to leave the European Union.

·        Cayman Island banks froze $7.3 billion of Russian deposits

Russia’s minister of economy said that Russia will require a half year or more to adjust to sanctions.

The president of Poland called for immediate dismantling of Nord Stream II which he labelled a political not an energy project.

German intelligence released tapes of conversations between Russian soldiers in Bucha, where the soldiers discuss killing civilians.  The German agency said the massacre was planned and condoned.

This week’s Economist includes an article that says Russia’s forces in Ukraine lack secure communications channels and that they rely heavily on mobile phones.  This allows Ukrainian soldiers to intercept and jam Russian military communications.

Billboards appeared in Chynkhvale, capital of Southern Ossetia, the Georgian region occupied by Russia since 2008, calling on people to vote in a referendum on uniting the Region with Russia.

Canada intends to provide Ukraine with $800 million of budget assistance through the IMF and another 500 million Canadian dollars of military assistance in 2022.

The courier service which has been helping send goods looted in Ukraine to Russian destinations said that from today it will only ship goods that Russian soldiers show they have purchase receipt.

Japan’s intelligence agency apologized for naming Ukraine’s Azov National Guard unit neo Nazis was based on information from Russia. 

Russia’s ministry of Justice is cancelling the registration of Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch in Russia.

Ursula von der Leyen, Head of the European Commission, paid a one-day trip to Kyiv yesterday.  Her visit started with a visit to Bucha, where she said Ukraine’s war is our war.  She said that she is in Ukraine to tell the country that the European Union is with Ukraine.  The EU will provide an additional billion Euro of assistance consisting budgetary and macro financial assistance.

She went to say that Russian inflation is 20%, exports have fallen by 71%, 700 multinationals have pulled out of Russia, and that the EU has frozen 225 billion Euro of Russian assets. 

Lavrov said Ukraine wants negotiations to include occupied Donbas and Crimea and that is impossible.  He said the Ukrainian peace proposals are unacceptable.

An Estonian IT company developed an interactive map, “Where do Orcs Come From”, that shows the geographic origins of every Russian soldier involved in the Bucha massacre.

NATIONAL

Yesterday Russian rockets landed and exploded at the Kramatorsk rail station killing 52 and wounding 109 civilians waiting to evacuate by train to Dnipro.  This is the second largest known single casualty count after the bombing of the children’s theater in Mariupol.  In that incident over 300 dead were removed from the rubble of the theater. 

Ukraine’s presidential advisor Podolyak described the negotiations with Russia.  He said that the Russian’s begin with statements that Nazis are killing civilians and that the Bucha massacre was staged by Ukraine and international media organizations.  We have nothing to say to their opening remarks.  He went to say that the Russian propaganda machine shares with Russia’s military full responsibility for the war.

Podolyak said that Ukraine’s government did not warn the country on the eve of the war that there was going to be a war because it did not want refugees to start fleeing.  This would have made military movement impossible as the roads would have been plugged.

Ukraine reached an agreement with Slovakia to buy 16 self-propelled, self-loading 155 mm Zuzanna howitzers with immediate delivery.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense Briefings:

·        Russia continues assembling an attack force to take the Donbas

·        Russia continues intensive shelling and rocket attacks against Kharkiv and surrounding communities.

·        Russia has set up a tent city for the next attacking army in Belgorod, Russia, which is 70 kilometers from Kharkiv.

·        Ukrainian forces beat back two Russian sorties on communities near Izium, Kharkiv oblast yesterday

·        Russian forces continue trying to take Rubizhno, Nizhni, Popasno, Novobakhmytka and Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast.

·        Russian forces in Kherson are shelling Marianskoe, Novovoronchovka, Novohryhorovka and Shevchenkovo near the administrative border of Mykolaiv to slow Ukrainian advances.

·        Russia continues launching rocket attacks from Crimea on Odesa and Mykolaiv

·        Russia is experiencing difficulties in finding willing bodies to replace those lost in the first wave of the invasion

·        Russia is forcibly repatriating civilians who fled Donbas January through February 2022

British and American Intelligence agencies stated yesterday that Russia is facing problems trying to recruit another 60,000 soldiers.

Ukraine’s polling company “Rating” released results of its latest Ukrainian poll:

·        91% of Ukrainians don’t think of Russians as brother Slavs; In a June poll last year 56% did not see Russians as brothers and 41% did see them as brothers.

·        80% of Ukrainians are proud of their country; August last year the number was 34%

·        98% identify themselves as Ukrainian citizens; earlier 75%

·        64% believe it will be impossible to have friendly relations with Russia; before the war 42%.

Russia is rounding up potential army recruits in occupied Crimea and taking them by force to recruiting stations.  This recruiting method used to be called press ganging.  (forcibly enlist (someone) into service in the army or navy. "a press-ganged navy")

Ukraine’s godfather to Putin’s children, Viktor Medvedchuk, who escaped house arrest and is in hiding, suffered another blow yesterday.  Ukraine’s police confiscated three luxury apartments, two business centers, art and cars from his wife.

928 educational establishments have hit by Russian fire.  84 of them are completely destroyed.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general has registered 5,377 war crimes, 2,607 treason charges, and charged 501 war criminals.  It has registered the killing of 176 children and another 324 wounded.

NORTHERN UKRAINE

The body of Alexander Rzavsky, a former Ukrainian parliamentary deputy, who made a name in Parliament by praising Pushkin, the Bolshoi Ballet and all things Russian and Soviet, was found in his home in Bucha, shot through the head and his house ransacked.

Russian forces destroyed the heart health care clinic in Irpin.

Ukrainian linesmen, driving to fix downed electrical lines, were injured when their vehicle was destroyed by a land mine in Sumy Oblast.

Ukrainian police warn against returning home until sappers have checked residences as the Russians left personnel mines almost everywhere.

Ukrainian forces are receiving eye witness testimony of mass graves in Borodianka.  Ukrainian forces there say they will follow up after clearing the area of mines.

KHARKIV – I will use separate maps for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts until the situation there is less intense.

Explosions are heard and felt throughout Kharkiv and the oblast.  One of Kharkiv’s districts burned for 8 hours after artillery attacks.  A shopping mall in the district of Saltiv was fully destroyed.

There are five Battalion Tactical Groups trying to take Kharkiv.

Kharkiv’s deputy mayor reports that almost all stores and commercial operations have lost windows and storefronts and are idle.  However, the shelves and aisles remain stocked and there is no looting.

DONBAS

Ukrainian forces beat back seven attacks in the Donbas, destroying 9 tanks, 7 armored personnel carriers, 5 trucks and liquidating 80 + soldiers.

Ukrainian commanders in the Donbas report that the Russian army is suffering very low morale.  As evidence they site a doctor’s report about two busloads of wounded sent to Russia for treatment.  The doctors reported that the majority had self-inflicted leg wounds to avoid combat.

Civilian housing was destroyed or damaged by Russian shelling in Zolotom, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Kremenoe.

Civilian evacuation from the front continues with approximately 10,000 civilians evacuated over the last two days.

52 killed and 109 wounded in the rocket attack on the Kramatorsk railway stations.  60 wounded were evacuated to Dnipro on 25 ambulances for treatment.

The pentagon statement yesterday said that Kramatorsk is strategic rail and road junction and believe it will be a target in the coming second wave assault.

The former Minister of Interior, Avakov, estimates that there are at least 30,000 dead in Mariupol.  He believes that Russian forces will try to hide the evidence.

Two groups of Russian special forces, that lost 30 soldiers, refused yesterday to continue trying to take Mariupol.

Mariupol’s mayor said yesterday that Russia has forcibly deported 40,000 civilians from the city.  The city is developing a data base of all that have been deported to ensure that they will be found and returned after the war.  He added that Ukrainian forces still control the majority of the city, and that the cities port is fortified and ready to act as a defensive bastion if the Russians gain more ground.

A Ukrainian veteran, who was a volunteer fighter in Donbas in 2014 – 15, the founder of Veterano Pizza, died yesterday defending Mariupol.  Rafael Agaev was best known in Ukraine for helping to organize small businesses for returning veterans from the eight year war in Donbas.

Evgenii Bal, a retired seventy-eight-year-old military historian, and polemicist was taken from his home, outside of Mariupol, a week ago by Russian forces.  He was released three days ago and died in bed from the traumas while being tortured in custody.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Odesa and the port of Chernomorsk were hit by rockets and cruise missiles fired from Crimea.  The head of the military administration of Odesa oblast said there were dead and wounded because of the attacks but did not provide details.

The city council and deputy mayors resigned on mass in Oleshkiv, Kherson Oblast, after the Russian army elected a new mayor.  They resigned because they did not want to be associated with an illegal and occupational regime.

Russian forces are not allowing men between the ages of 16 and 60 to leave to leave Zaporszhia oblast.  The Russians are actively seeking to recruit men to the Russian military in Melitopol.

Ukrainian partisans in Kherson Oblast are starting to take Russian POWs.

Ukraine is starting to send additional forces to Mykolaiv reinforce Ukrainian attacks on occupied territories in Kherson.

CENTRAL UKRAINE I

The prosecutor in Dnipro Oblast ordered the arrest of a priest of the Russian Orthodox Church for actively justifying the Russian invasion.   Good!!

A Russian rocket attack in Dnipro Oblast that hit a fishing boat in the Dnipro River killed four adults and a child.

Russian rockets hit Mirhorod in Poltava Oblast yesterday without causing death, injury or destruction.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis