Ukraine – 4/8/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
April 8, 2023
War of the Churches Comes to Moscow,
Protests have broken out in Moscow over construction of a mosque in a part of Moscow deemed sacred by Orthodox believers. Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechnya and commander of one of the private military contractors operating in Ukraine, has gotten involved, warning “If all these rally participants wholeheartedly came out with the idea of protecting the Russian land, then go to the trenches with a machine gun!” Kadyrov continued, “Such instigators should either be conscripted to vent all their anger on the enemy or sent to court as information saboteurs acting to please Satanists.”
Muslims make up the fastest growing segment of the Russian population. The estimates of Muslims living in greater Moscow, with a population of approximately 15 million, vary between 1.5 million and 3 million. The large difference in estimates may be explained by how temporary workers from the Central Asian “Stans” are counted. According a 2019 article in the Moscow Times, the estimate of the Muslim population in Russia was between 14 and 20 million, or between 10 and 14 percent of Russia’s population.
The same population trends exist in Crimea. Prior to the war, the only portion of the Crimean population that was growing were the Crimean Tatars, largely loyal to Ukraine.
Some say that Russia wants to wipe Ukrainians off the map. Certainly, Russia wants to wipe Ukraine off the map, and it has so far spent over 177,000 casualties in their attempt, but if the Kremlin also wants to maintain the authority of Orthodox Christians in the Russian Federation, they may need 44 million Ukrainians, almost all Orthodox Christians, to do so. It is likely that the relative decline of Orthodox Christians inside the Russian Federation is as big a factor in the Kremlin’s calculations in wanting to incorporate Ukraine into “Russkyi Mir” than anything else.
It is agreed that the war is a matter of survival for Ukraine, but perhaps in the longer-term Ukraine’s victory may also mean the end of the authority of Russian Orthodox Christians in Russia. The irony is that unlike Ukrainians who are all engaged in prosecuting the war, those same Russian Orthodox Christians are mostly watching the war on tv, from the comfort of their living rooms in Moscow and St. Petersburg, while letting the ethnic minorities do the fighting and dying on their behalf in Ukraine.
Sergii Marchenko, Finance Minister of Ukraine
An interview with Marchenko appeared in the latest issue of Barrons. Early in the interview they spoke about the impact of current tight monetary policy in the U.S. on Ukraine’s ability to finance their war effort. Perhaps the U.S. is doing Ukraine a favor. During WW-I France resorted to printing money, to fiancé its war effort against Germany. Not only did this policy penalize French savers, but it made the process of repaying French war debts to the U.S. more difficult, by having to convert cheaper Francs into Dollars to repay its obligations.
Partly as a result of resisting the temptation to print money, Ukraine is likely to come out of the war in a far stronger fiscal and monetary condition than many might have expected. Ukraine will also benefit from concessions from the “Paris Club” of international creditors relating to terms and interest rates on sovereign borrowings.
According to a friend with whom I recently spoke, there has not been a electricity blackout or gas interruption in 2 months. The interviewer asked Marchenko if Ukraine really needs international financial support, why are there nice cars in the streets and fancy restaurants doing good business?
Marchenko answered, “You know, we should compare March 2023 with March 2022, a year ago. There were Russian troops in districts of Kyiv. There were about four times fewer people. I was here. It was a ghost town.” He waves an illustrative hand around imagined empty streets. ”Now that may have looked like an economy at war, but it’s far better that we can sit here together, today, and pay sales taxes on these coffees. That actually funds the war.” Amen.
Marchenko ends the interview by explaining a major reason why Ukraine will win, “Ukrainians are not like the Russians,” he says, “we prize individual freedom and the family.” Because of that, he says, Russia is trying to destroy an alternative social model on its doorstep. Ukraine, with its energy, IT skills and agriculture, would be an immense plus for the European Union. And that would contrast with the Russian quality of life.” For this, Russia has no answer.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” mostly focuses on Bakhmut. From several months of looking at tactical maps showing the situation around Bakhmut, it appears to my uneducated eye the aperture, the territory controlled by Ukraine north and south of Bakhmut, is getting wider, making it more and more difficult for Russians to cut off Ukrainians operating inside the city. Now, Reporting From Ukraine says that Ukraine is bringing in an increased number of tanks into central Bakhmut, serving to increase the difficulty of the Russian advance. From the pictures, it doesn’t seem as if Ukraine is using the main battle tanks it’s receiving from its Western supporters.
“The Latest Denys” mostly covers Avdiivka, and he appears to build on yesterday’s “Reporting From Ukraine,” covering repeated Ukrainian advances north of Avdiivka and continued degradation of Russian forces.
Regarding the fighting around Avdiivka, the following come into play:
· Ukrainian defense lines – Ukrainian defense lines around Avdiivka go back to 2014, and have proven to be very difficult for Russia to penetrate.
· The size of the fields – Denys talks about how big the fields are. Ukrainian fields, used for wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflowers, are huge, often so big that one cannot see the other side due the curvature of the Earth. This offers an easy field of fire for Ukrainian armor and, especially, drone operators.
· The tree lines – The fields are marked by tree lines, offering the only cover for armor and infantry. Both sides know this. The configuration of the fields and tree lines in Ukraine are proving to have the same significance, for the same reasons, as the Bocage Country did in France, in the period after the Normandy landings in 1944.
At 9:40 into Denys’ video, he reports that the Head of a Ukrainian bank has offered a prize of 20 million Hryvna ($500,000) to anyone who lands a drone on Red Square in Moscow on May 9th, during Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade. My money is on someone collecting the 20 million Hryvna reward.
4/8/23 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon April 7 to 12:00 noon April 8, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Saturday April 8
09:29: The Eastern Command of the National Liberation Army of China announced the start of combat readiness patrols and joint exercises to encircle Taiwan, - Taiwan's Ministry of Defense.
· According to the report, patrols and exercises begin today. Taiwan's defense ministry said it would "closely monitor the situation and take appropriate measures to protect their own country."
08:19: Two people died, more than a million left without power after an ice storm hit Canada's two most populous provinces, the New York Post said.
Friday April 7
23:06: In Tel Aviv, a car drove into a crowd near an embankment. Police say the driver has been neutralized.
· The Israeli Foreign Ministry called the incident a terrorist attack, said that 7 people were wounded. Media report that the attacks took place in two different districts of the city – an unknown person crashed into passers-by in a car and opened fire. At least two people suffered gunshot wounds.
22:47: Lithuania blocked the scheme of illegal timber imports from Belarus and Russia
· Lithuanian customs officers began to carefully check the submitted documents and routes of movement of goods to make sure that they enter the European Union, whether the goods entering the customs territory are really transported from a third country in transit through Russia or Belarus, and not "exported" from there.
21:43: A T-64 tank repair center for Ukraine has opened in Poland, PGZ said in a press release.
· Bumar-Labędy and Ukrobronprom jointly created a technology center that will repair T-64 tanks, maintain them, maintain combat capability and restore them to full working condition.
20:28 White House press service: US President Joe Biden has extended for one year a number of sanctions against the Russian Federation.
· According to the website of the White House, the sanctions regime continues in connection with the harmful foreign activities of the Russian government.
20:10: The world's largest oilfield company is on the list of sponsors of the war in Ukraine, according to the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP).
· According to the agency, SLB mobilizes its employees in Russia for the war against Ukraine and continues to cooperate with Russian Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil.
· "The company (SLB - ed.) openly declares that it brought taxes worth more than $ 4.5 billion to the budget of the terrorist state," the NACP writes.
19:53 The Globe and Mail: Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal will visit Canada to discuss the supply of armored vehicles and ammunition.
· The head of government wants to come to Canada in the coming weeks, but the exact date of the visit has not yet been disclosed for security reasons.
· "Now we need heavy armored vehicles. And we need more artillery shells: ammunition for howitzers and ammunition for tanks," Shmyhal said.
16:55 Reuters: Xi gave Macron an unusually generous reception during the visit, which is akin to trying to persuade France to "counter" the United States.
· Today, both leaders drank Chinese tea at Xi's father's former residence in Guangzhou. Diplomats say this is rare and it "underscores the importance Beijing attaches to this relationship with a key EU member" as Xi seeks support against what he called "comprehensive deterrence, encirclement and suppression" by the United States.
· Instead, Reuters also writes that Washington perceives China's diplomatic relations with France with a degree of skepticism.
13:22: "Ukraine does not trade its territories," this is how the Foreign Ministry responded to the President of Brazil to the proposal to abandon the Crimea.
· "There is no legal, political or moral reason why we should cede even an inch of Ukrainian land," the spokesman wrote.
13:15: Russian specialists could deliberately damage MiG-29 fighter jets, which Slovakia decided to transfer to Ukraine, said Defense Minister Jaroslav Nagy.
· He said that investigators did not prove intentional damage, but "errors continued to appear in places that could only be reached by Russian equipment."
12:51: Ukraine's counteroffensive will begin in the coming weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.
· According to him, Washington will support these actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, he believes that the decision on whether to return Crimea should be made by Ukraine.
· "Ukraine is a democracy. President Volodymyr Zelensky has a responsibility to lead the country, but he must listen to the will of Ukrainians," Blinken said in an interview with the Funke media group.
NATIONAL
Saturday April 8
11:24: 7 enemy ships are on alert in the Black Sea, including 1 carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles, a total salvo of up to 4 missiles - the Ukrainian Navy.
10:31: SBU uncovers three more mobilization evasion schemes. In total, there are five organizers.
· Those liable for military service were offered to avoid mobilization by forging documents and illegally crossing the border. This package of services cost from 3 to 6 thousand dollars, depending on the urgency of resolving the issue.
· Currently, all the defendants have been notified of suspicion.
07:44: "Any decision of the NATO summit, which means that we move from the phrase "the door is open" to the phrase "Ukraine is on the verge of NATO membership", will be considered a successful result," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.
· Kuleba also announced "many other decisions" at the NATO summit, including a new multi-year plan to support Ukraine and "certain security guarantees for Ukraine."
07:07 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Over the past day, the enemy inflicted 2 missile and 35 air strikes, carried out more than 40 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.
· Russia continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions. Over the past day, more than 60 attacks by Russian troops in these areas were repulsed.
· In Melitopol and Skadovsk, Russians organized a survey of the local population regarding possible evacuation.
· The survey checks the availability of a Russian passport, registration and level of education. There is a periodic departure of buses with those wishing to evacuate.
· The Russians are spreading information that from the end of April the forced evacuation of civilians will begin.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 9 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation.
· In addition, Ukrainian defenders near Marinka destroyed a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft. Also, the enemy lost 7 UAVs, of which: 3 – of the "Orlan" type, 3 – "Lancet" and 1 – "Merlin".
· Missile troops and artillery units hit 1 control point, 2 areas of concentration of manpower and destroyed an ammunition depot of the Russian Federation.
Friday April 7
23:51: Kyiv cardiac surgeons performed a complex heart operation on an 800-gram baby.
· Doctors arrived for surgery to close the arterial duct at the Rivne maternity hospital.
· Thanks to the talent of doctors, the baby now has every chance of a full life.
22:55: Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Let's not forget that it was with the occupation of the Ukrainian Crimea, precisely with the repressions in Crimea against the freedom of Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar, against Crimean Muslims, that Russia's attempt to enslave Ukraine other nations of Europe began. Unfortunately, evil reigns on the land of Crimea now – under the Russian tricolor. Humiliation, repression, murder, war...
· But where the path of evil began, it is there that the victory over it awaits us. The de-occupation of Crimea has no alternative not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole world. For an order in the world based on conventions and the UN Charter, and not on the criminal habits of murderers, rapists and robbers that Russia is trying to spread.
22:44: Ukraine resumes electricity exports - Ministry of Energy
· As Minister of Energy Halushchenko said, "electricity exports will work provided that Ukrainian consumers are provided with electricity and can be suspended if the situation changes."
21:28: Ukraine offered the Russians to exchange all Muslim prisoners in honor of the beginning of Ramadan, but Moscow refused.
· This was stated by Adviser to the Head of the President's Office Dariia Zarivna in an interview with Voice of America.
· "We came up with a proposal to exchange Muslims 'all for all' on both sides as a sign of respect for theirs [Muslims]. culture and traditions," Zarivna said.
18:44 Update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on April 7:
· "During the day, the enemy inflicted 2 missile and 14 air strikes.
· The enemy carried out more than 10 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements.
· During the day, more than 40 enemy attacks were repulsed in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions."
· "The Russian occupiers are actively continuing forced passportization of the population of the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
· In particular, at checkpoints, the enemy restricts the movement of Ukrainian citizens who have not received passports of the Russian Federation.
· The occupiers deliberately and deliberately search vehicles, record all personal data of citizens who do not have Russian documents, threaten with a ban on entering the city."
· "The enemy threatens parents of graduate students in the temporarily occupied territories who do not have a Russian passport with refusal to receive a certificate of basic secondary education for their children.
· The invaders are also forcing to change marriage certificates and certificates of registration of technical equipment from Ukrainian to Russian."
· "Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 9 strikes on areas of concentration of the occupiers.
· In addition, near Marinka, a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft was destroyed.
· Units of rocket troops and artillery, in turn, destroyed the enemy's ammunition depot."
19:57: "This is such a badly made document, it does not even look like a fake"
· Expert of the military portal Defense Express Ivan Kirichevsky spoke about whether it is really worth trusting the "secret leak" about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
· "Somehow they are very strangely folded. There is even one lexical error. Where there is a comparison of the alleged losses of our Russians in equipment and manpower, there is a postscript "Strategical SAM" and "Tactical SAM". These abbreviations SAM (surface to air missle - ed.) are used more likely by journalism, but not by the American military," he said on Freedom Live
19:33: UOC-MP clergy including Metropolitan Onufriy hold Russian passports – UP investigation.
· According to the UP editorial office, during 2002-2003 Onufriy received a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation and a passport in Moscow.
· In December 2022, former Metropolitan Elisha of Izyum and Kupiansk (Oleg Ivanov), who settled in Belgorod after fleeing the occupied Kharkiv region, also received a Russian passport.
17:55: The Ministry of Justice announced the number of open cases on collaborationism
· We are talking about 5 thousand cases. Deputy Minister of Justice Valeria Kolomiiets explained to us that a person's residence in the temporarily occupied territory does not mean that such a person is a collaborator.
· Therefore, according to her, the stage of verification is mandatory, as well as finding out for each specific person – under what conditions the violation was committed, or not under duress.
17:54: 100 cars for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
· Favbet handed over the 100th vehicle to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the front. It was received by a special unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence.
16:07: The Anti-Corruption Court closed the case against MP Volynets, who was suspected of false declaration. Reason: expiration of the statute of limitations for criminal prosecution.
· NABU and SAP opened a case against the MP from the Batkivshchyna faction after the release of the Schemes investigation in April 2021.
12:35: We urge you to support the petition to award the title of "Hero of Ukraine" to Daniil Lyashuk (better known as Mujahid or Deni Vendetti) with the Order of the Golden Star (posthumously).
12:11: Pavelko is re-elected to the UEFA Executive Committee
· President of the Ukrainian Football Association Andriy Pavelko has been re-elected as a member of the Executive Committee of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) until 2027.
· Ukraine thus retains its representation in the governing body of the main European Football Association for another 4 years.
Mordor - russia
Saturday April 8
11:27 Social Networks: Explosions were heard in Feodosia, in the temporarily occupied Crimea.
00:22: Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has banned all government officials from leaving the country without special permission.
· They can travel abroad only on official business. It is reported by The Bell with reference to its sources.
· According to the publication, travel permits for the entire leadership of the government – including ministers, heads of staff, their deputies and heads of departments – must be agreed and signed personally by Mishustin.
Friday April 7
23:35: Recent events in the Bryansk region indicate that an armed protest against the current regime is possible in the middle of the Russian Federation
· Despite the statements of the Kremlin leadership, the protest of Russians against the current regime is quite possible. A vivid confirmation of this, recent events in the Bryansk region. In particular, riots occurred in the Pogarsky district. Russian rebels killed two militants of the occupying army. There is a significant number of wounded, the exact figure is currently being specified. An enemy armored personnel carrier was also disabled. Other machinery, equipment and property of the occupiers were damaged.
22:16: Russia began to produce "camouflage for babies." Video from a local TV channel.
19:37: In the Russian city of Voronezh, an explosion was heard near the local VALT aircraft plant, according to Russian media.
18:26: The Ukrainian pilot, who was previously detained in the Bryansk region, was arrested until May 4, 2023, according to Russian media.
· It is known that he is accused of illegally crossing the state border of the Russian Federation. He faces a fine of up to 200 thousand rubles or imprisonment for up to two years.
13:35: Russian military command creates Storm-Z special forces to fight among urban buildings or seize fortified points, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.
· Analysts at the Institute claim that Storm-Z is formed mainly of reservists — each company consists of 100 people.
LUHANSK
Saturday April 8
09:59: The bad weather that engulfed the Luhansk region at the end of March showed the inability of the occupation authorities to maintain livelihoods in Severodonetsk, said the head of the CMA Oleksandr Stryuk.
· He added that less than 10% of the residents who lived there before February 24, 2022 remain in the city.
· Stryuk also said that without a Russian passport in the city it is impossible to get any administrative services.
DONETSK
Saturday April 8
11:39: Yesterday, Russians shelled Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, with artillery, damaging 4 private houses, 2 cars, and a gas pipeline. No wounded or dead were found on the spot.
· This was reported by the Konstantinovsky city military administration.
· Also that night, the Russians hit the territory of one of the city's enterprises. As a result of the shelling, the property of the enterprise inside the warehouse was destroyed.
11:23 Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region.
09:14 Donetsk RMA: On April 7, Russians killed 4 residents of Donetsk region: 3 in Bohorodychne and 1 in Torske. Another 1 person in the region was injured.
00:46 Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kramatorsk district.
Friday April 7
13:23 General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Su-25 of the Russian Federation was destroyed near Marinka in the Donetsk region.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday April 8
08:35: Right now, dozens of policemen with dogs are once again searching one of the high-rise buildings in the center of Melitopol, Mayor Ivan Fedorov said.
· "However, the terror of civilians will not help reduce popular resistance. No matter how hard they try, applicants will come for you," Fedorov said.
Friday April 7
14:26: The Russian military took four employees of the ZNPP to an unknown direction, Energoatom said. They worked in the physical protection service of the station.
· "It is significant that all four were considered loyal to the occupation leadership of ZNPP, because they signed contracts with the fake AO "Operating Organization of Zaporizhzhia NPP", – added there.
KHERSON
Saturday April 8
11:54 Kherson RMA: The Russian army struck the center of Beryslav with aerial bombs yesterday evening.
· As a result of the attack, the building of a vocational education institution was damaged. Ammunition damaged the structure of the building and the roof, and there was no glass left in the windows. According to preliminary information, people are alive and unharmed.
08:50 Kherson RMA: Russian forces shelled peaceful settlements of Kherson region 71 times. 397 shells were fired from mortars, artillery, tanks and aircraft.
· Residential areas of Kherson were attacked 17 times by the Russian army. The enemy targeted private and apartment buildings, a kindergarten in the Bilozerska community, and a shopping facility in Beryslav.
· It is noted that last day in the Kherson region due to enemy shelling, 8 people were injured of varying degrees of severity, two of them are children.
Friday April 7
21:13 Kherson RMA: 8 people wounded because of Russian shelling of Beryslav.
· "Two of them are ambulance workers who were going to call the victims after the shelling," Sobolevsky said.
18:17 Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
16:27 Kherson RMA: An ambulance team came under fire in Kherson region.
· In Beryslav, medics were heading to a woman, but the ambulance was hit by fragments of Russian shells. Two paramedics were injured.
15:19 Operational Command South: Russia resorts to dropping aerial bombs as an alternative to missile strikes
· In particular, in the Kherson region, according to her, the Russian military hit precisely on mined economic areas, which causes a detonation.
13:05 Kherson RMA: Russian army killed another civilian in Beryslav.
· Debris from enemy ammunition injured a 36-year-old man during heavy shelling at night. The body of the deceased was found on the street.
SUMY
Saturday April 8
09:44 Sumy RMA: At night and in the morning, 6 attacks were carried out from the territory of the Russian Federation on the border communities of Sumy region - Krasnopilska, Seredyno-Budska, Velykopysarivska.
· 46 arrivals were recorded, according to the Sumy OVA.
CHERNIHIV
Saturday April 8
10:44: OK "North" showed the consequences of yesterday's Russian air strike on the border of Chernihiv region.
· 2 explosions were recorded within two settlements of Semenivska ATC. They were caused by two guided aerial bombs fired from a Russian Su-35 fighter jet from the territory of the Russian Federation.
· As a result of the strike, residential buildings and communications were damaged.
LVIV
Saturday April 8
00:55: A sculpture of a boy waiting for his father from the operating room was installed in the courtyard of a Lviv hospital
· The sculpture is a real boy, 12-year-old Timofey Chernyshkov. In late January, his father received a lung transplant. And while the man was on the operating table, the child stood under the door of the operating room.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka
Xi Jinping reportedly said in his meeting with Putin that the ammunition could not be sold.
If Russia does not have ICBMs, Xi Jinping would like to make the area east of the Ural Mountains his territory, but since both countries have ICBMs, that is not feasible. If Xi Jinping openly assists Russia, he will be sanctioned by the West, which has a large economy, so the loss will be greater. However, CPUs and memory for weapon manufacturing seem to be sold to Russia by some unknown companies in Hong Kong. Of the 720 million dollars purchased by Russia, 570 million dollars (abt.80%) entered Russia via Hong Kong. (Survey by Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economy Paper))
Isn't the CCCP profiting from the .UA-.RU war?