Bob Homans April 4
20220404
Ukraine – 4/4 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
April 4, 2022
“Good-bye Putin” –
I readily admit that I am a long-time fan of thoroughbred horse racing, and a student of parimutuel betting. For these reasons, I was very gratified to see the result of yesterday’s 6th Race at Santa Anita Park near Los Angeles, CA, my favorite racetrack. You can watch the video replay of the race here. I’m only sorry that I didn’t get a bet down on the winner, but I do hope that winner’s connections (owner/trainer/jockey) are all Ukrainian, or at least of Ukrainian ancestry. I also hope that there are a few bettors out there of Ukrainian descent, who not only bet on the winner straight up, but keyed the winner in a variety of “exotic” bets, including exactas, trifectas, pick 3’s and, of course, the Pick 6.
From Kostroma to Hostomel - The Story of the 331st Parachute Regiment –
Produced by BBC, this video tells the story of the Russian 331st Parachute Regiment, one of the most elite units of the Russian Army. On the first day of the war, the 331st participated in the unsuccessful attack on the Hostomel Airport. Later, part of the 331st was confirmed to be in Bucha, the site of one of the most horrific atrocities against Ukrainian civilians of the war so far. BBC estimates that approximately 1/3rd of the total complement of the 331st, approximately 1,500 people, have either been killed wounded or captured, including commanding officer and many senior officers. BBC reports that the city of Kostroma has lost more soldiers killed in Ukraine than in the 9-year war in Afghanistan.
Lt-Gen H.R. McMaster, (Ret) – on Yesterday’s CBS “Face the Nation” –
Now a Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, in this video McMaster gives his views on the current state of the war in Ukraine. As a young U.S. Army Captain, McMaster commanded a tank unit that decimated the Iraqi Republican Guard at map coordinates “73-Easting.” During his “Face the Nation” interview, McMaster urged the Biden Administration to give Ukraine “all the tools necessary to finish the job,” meaning defeating Russia in a way that others have said puts no doubt in the minds of the Russian People that Russia has lost. He also said that the atrocities in Bucha was an indication of what happens when an Army has no military competence and, instead, engages in mass murder.
“Re-Positioning?”
“Re-Positioning” seems to be a term ginned up by the many so-called pundits to describe Russian forces moving from the area around Kyiv, where they have been decimated, to new launch points opposite Donbas. The supposition seems to be that the units that are “re-positioning” will be able to immediately attack the Ukrainian Army at full strength.
However, this report, from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that it will take several months for these units to return to full strength, from incorporating conscripts into their ranks, those who were drafted only last April 1st, to replenish destroyed and captured equipment at a time when there will likely be delays due to assembly bottlenecks caused by Western sanctions. The ISW Report states, “Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.”
In Donbas, the Ukrainian Army may be able to take advantage of the time that will be necessary to replenish the “re-positioned” Russian units. For example, it is possible that Ukraine might do some re-positioning of its own, moving troops from around Kyiv to try to break the siege of Mariupol, and/or recapture Kherson.
To compensate, we may also see the Russians relying more heavily on cruise missiles. Therefore, it seems incumbent on the Biden Administration and NATO to immediately give Ukraine whatever it wants, most prominently anti-aircraft weapons able to take down cruise missiles. Why can’t the US put a Patriot Missile battery in a C-17 tomorrow, and send it to Slovakia, so Slovakia can release its S-300 anti-aircraft system to Ukraine?
4/4 Sitrep-
Yesterday, Kirill, the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, held a service in Moscow. His sermon was dedicated to Russia. In his sermon, Kirill stated that Russia is a peaceful country that has suffered countless injury from invaders. The reason is that external forces wish to end Russia’s historical mission to bring order. In his sermon he blessed the Russian army and told them they must continue fulfilling Russia’s peaceful mission.
Some of the civilians that the Russian army forcefully deported from Mariupol to camps in Russia have escaped. Ukraine’s ombudsman reported that Estonian authorities had permitted entrance for about a dozen Ukrainian refugees from these camps.
Great Britain’s Ambassador to Ukraine, Melinda Simmons, said that historically Russian military tactics include rape as part of their arsenal. The women and girls raped in Ukraine by Russian soldiers were done so under orders to terrorize civilians to break resistance to the occupation.
The President of the European Commission, President of France, Chancellor of Germany, Prime Minister of Great Britain, President of Italy, and other European, North American and Asian leaders indicated that they would prepare and implement additional Russian sanctions as a result of the massacre in Bucha.
Moscow’s spokesman Dimitriy Peskov made a scientific breakthrough yesterday. He announced that Russia discovered that Europeans have a gene which predisposes them to dislike Russians. This gene does not allow Europeans to peacefully co-exist with Russians. Peskov was unable to identify the gene, or whether it was a gene or chromosome.
Prime Minister Boris Johnston said he was enraged by rocket attacks on the city of Odesa and that Great Britain would buy Ukraine surface to surface missiles to destroy attacking naval vessels.
European naval bunker oil merchants announced yesterday they will no longer fuel or service Russian naval vessels in European ports or waters. The next question – what about Russian merchant vessels?
Approximately 95% of International Sporting Federations have suspended membership of Russian and Belarus national organizations. All international sporting events scheduled to the end of 2024 in Russia or Belarus have been moved to venues outside these countries.
Yesterday, Pope Francis prayed for the journalists killed in Ukraine. To date four journalists, three photojournalists and seven support staff have been killed. Another eleven journalists are still missing.
MI6 daily bulletin yesterday stated that prior to the invasion, Putin’s plans included killing civilians to break resistance. Richard Moore, the MI6 spokesman, said that Russia’s current military priority in Ukraine is to take Mariupol to create a land bridge to Crimea.
NATIONAL
Head of Potava Oblast administration, Dimitry Lunin, said that spring sowing in safe areas has begun. According to reports from other Regions, sowing is started or underway in safe areas. However, significant swathes of territory are unsafe, there is a shortage of fertilizer and export is down to a trickle. Overall Ukraine will see a 30% or more reduction in harvests this year.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense report for yesterday:
· Russia is preparing to increase the intensity of attacks in Donbas
· Colonel Vitaliy Slabchov, deputy commander of the 83rd Paratrooper Brigade was liquidated bringing the total number of liquidated Russian generals and colonels in Ukraine to 24.
· 25 soldiers of the 31st Russian Paratrooper Brigade stopped taking part in active duty yesterday, resigning on mass, asking to be sent back to Ulyanovsk Russia.
· 80% of the attacking force of the Mechanized Rifles Platoon of the 59th Russian Tank Battalion were liquidated yesterday in attacks on Kharkiv.
· A Russian military test pilot deserted yesterday and returned to his family in Ukraine. He publicly destroyed his Russian passport and joined Ukraine’s air defense.
· Ukraine’s air defense destroyed yesterday two Russian fighter bombers, disabled a flying radar and command craft, one helicopter and intercepted a number of rockets and cruise missiles.
· Russia started mobilizing military reserves in Krasnodar, Perm, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kalmikya. These regions and autonomous republics in the Russian Federation are far from Moscow and St. Petersburg. Mobilization there is under the radar of the key Russian metropolitan regions and consists of 80% non-ethnic Russians.
· Russia is mobilizing equipment from long term storage. The equipment called in to replace losses has been in storage from 15 to 30 years.
· Russian forces unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions in the Donbas seven times. They lost two armored units, forty-three troop carriers, and a heavy mortar with munitions.
· Retreating Russians are leaving behind chaotically disbursed personnel and equipment mines.
Ukraine’s Intelligence agency arrested yesterday:
· A collaborator inside occupied Kherson working with Russian forces to identify and liquidate Ukrainian civilians opposed to the occupation.
· A Russian spy in Lviv providing military intelligence.
· A collaborator in Donbas providing targeting information.
· A collaborator in Rivno providing targeting information.
Ten Russian soldiers switched to defending Ukraine against Russia yesterday bringing with them their equipment. Over a hundred other Russians have done the same to date.
13% of Ukraine’s road infrastructure has been damaged from the start of the invasion. This includes 23 thousand kilometers of 170 thousand and 273 bridges and overpasses. The damage is estimated at 30 billion dollars.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy estimates that economic damage at 565 billion USD to date and 54 billion USD in lost investment
Poland is strictly enforcing customs procedures on its border with Belarus to ensure that goods entering Belarus have no military value.
Anonymous released the names and personal information of all 120,000 Russians who were part of the initial invasion.
NORTHERN UKRAINE
The information fallout from the liberation of Bucha, Irpin and Gostomel, all near Kyiv continues.
· Russia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement regarding mass murders in Bucha. The statement says that not one civilian was harmed while Bucha was occupied by Russian forces. The photo evidence now on display is fake and or staged and is a provocation. Last night, Russia called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the “atrocities” allegedly committed by Ukraine.
· A photo archive of Ukrainian and international journalists https://drive.google.com/drive/mobile/folders/1-3_RECcAKk5LftVIvGoD6Z8-_9dLJYCa
· Maxar technologies,
https://www.maxar.com/
, an integrated satellite technology company provided actionable information on the mass grave in Bucha. The company showed that the grave was prepared on March 10, a week after Bucha was occupied.
· Witnesses in Irpin have come forward saying that Russians shot women and girls and then drove tanks over the bodies.
· 410 bodies have been taken from the area, on which 140 forensic autopsies have been completed according to Ukraine’s prosecutor general.
· Children’s bodies recovered from the area have their hands tied behind their backs.
· Residents are coming forward showing Ukrainian forces burial sites in their yards of family members shot by Russians.
· The EU is preparing a sixth round of sanctions as a result of the massacre.
· Poland and the three Baltic states plan to cut off all contact with Belarus and Russia within 72 hours.
Vasylkov in Kyiv Oblast, site of a Ukrainian school for aviation and air defense technicians, was hit by a rocket. No damage or deaths are reported.
The mayor of Chernihiv reported that 70% of the civilian infrastructure in the city has been destroyed. The biggest problem is to survival. He is also concerned by the fact that Russia is maintaining a large military presence in Belarus. Chernihiv is 20 km from the Belarus border.
The village from Zamhalsko village in Chernihiv Oblast was liberated from ten days of Russian cativity. He recounted his torture he underwent in his captors efforts to identify Ukrainian activists in his community.
Ukrainian armed forces opened a route into Chernihiv and the first humanitarian aid convoy arrived there today.
Kharkiv continues to be partially encircled by Russian forces. Yesterday shelling of Kharkiv’s Slobodska neighborhood resulted in four damaged buildings, seven killed and 34 wounded. Three children were wounded.
Russian forces lost an armored personnel carrier in a village north of Kharkiv to Ukrainian forces, who liquidated three soldiers in the ambush. Upon its capture villagers came forth and identified personal property in the carrier. The property consisted of notebooks, cash, blinds, shoes, clothes and food.
Russian artillery fire in rural areas of Kharkiv Oblast killed 10, and 41 wounded. There were three children among the wounded.
DONBAS
Ukrainian forces repelled seven Russian attacks along the front line in Donbas. Cities and towns in Donetsk and Luhansk came under sporadic shelling over the last twenty-four hours. The Ukrainian administration in these Oblasts is attempting to evacuate as many civilians as possible in the expectation that Russian forces will intensify their attacks once they swing their armies from the north to Donbas and Kharkiv.
Russian artillery hit the male monastery of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ilinsk, Luhansk Oblast.
We reported that Russian forces blocked a column of cars evacuating civilians from Mariupol the day before yesterday for fifteen hours. The blockade continued all day yesterday and as of noon today still has not moved.
Military sappers in Zaporizhia disarmed 27 undetonated ballistic rockets and 23 unexploded fragments of cluster bombs.
Ukrainian civilians held peaceful demonstrations in the cities of Kherson and Kakhovka demanding that the Russians leave. Russian soldiers responded with live fire killing three in Kherson and wounding many others. The number wounded is impossible to count or verify as the cities are occupied.
Greece’s Minister of Foreign affairs arrived in Odesa yesterday bringing with him humanitarian aid and to reopen Greece’s consulate in the city. There is a large Greek community in Odesa.
Mykolaiv come under rocket attack yesterday and this morning. 14 people were hospitalized, one died at the hospital, and the injured include a 15 year old boy.
Odesa came under rocket attacks. Damage is still being ascertained but no one wounded. Ukrainian forces replied and damaged the Frigate Admiral Essen. The frigate is heading back for repairs.
Three villages, Zaporozske, Vladymyrovka, and Voznesenskoe, in Dnipro Oblast were hit by artillery fire.
The city of Ternopil was hit by a rocket last night.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis
Almost unbelivable that Mariupol is still holding out. The way things are going, is there any remote chance that they may actually be relieved?