Bob Homans April 23
20220423
Ukraine – 4/23 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 23, 2022
4/23 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)
The big question is when will Ukraine change its tactics from counter attacks and ambushes to full scale assault. From reports, discussions, and analysis the answer appears to be soon.
Russia’s continuing attacks in the south, approach to occupying settlements and operations in occupied areas don’t appear to have changed from the north.
Because Russia’s military command and control has not adapted and continues operating on bad intelligence and myths of invincibility, we expect the coming Ukrainian assault will be equally effective to Ukraine’s continuing defense. The assault will succeed in taking back Ukraine if Ukraine does not run out of weapons and ammunition. It all depends on the West’s ability and willingness to keep supplying the weapons, ammunition, spare parts and other items that Ukraine has requested.
Having convinced the west Ukraine can defend itself and arm wrestled to get Western help, questions remain whether the west is prepared to ensure that Russia loses. In yesterday’s words of the Austrian Chancellor, who by his remarks seems to be the intellectual successor to disgraced former Austrian President, Kurt Waldheim, “if it hurts us more than them, (the Russians), what’s the point?”
The west is scared that if Russia loses it will use nuclear weapons. To prevent a nuclear holocaust rather than punishing the perpetrator the West will punish the victim – Ukraine. Punishment will be Ukrainian acceptance of partial Russian occupation, especially of Crimea, in return for reparation payments and EU membership. In yesterday’s Sitrep, there is an interesting take from the “Economist,” as to why Putin hasn’t already authorized the use of nuclear weapons – he’s afraid that his order won’t be carried out, in which case he’ll be removed.
Ukraine’s president has repeatedly demonstrated no interest or ability to compromise. His attitude and approach is to totally crush his opposition at all costs. Ukrainians, having already paid the ultimate price, are with him. The West having suffered from a 0.025% to 1% lost GDP from this war have not paid a metaphorical dime.
Will the West go all the way, or will it be MAGA, MAGA, MAGA in each individual country?
INTERNATIONAL
The Russian Federation states that “during the second phase of the special operation” they plan to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine, providing a corridor to the Crimea and an exit to Transnistria, where allegedly “facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are observed.”
Minister of Defense of the Netherlands: The Netherlands will supply self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, Germany will provide military training and ammunition.
Bloomberg: Washington and Brussels are discussing possible steps to reduce Russia's oil revenues from EU oil supplies.
Demonstrations in support of Ukraine took place yesterday in Sydney, Australia, Warsaw, Frankfurt, and Kassel, Germany.
Canadian Minister of National Defence announces the transfer of heavy artillery to Ukraine – M777 howitzers, Carl Gustaff anti-tank weapons, and armored vehicles.
Financial Post: Amsterdam Trade Bank, subsidiary of Russia's Alfa Bank hit by US sanctions, filed for bankruptcy
International Swimming Federation: Russian swimmer and two-time Olympic champion Yevgeny Rylov was disqualified for nine months for participating in a rally in support of Russian President.
Reuters: The European Commission allows payment for Russian gas in rubles, but under certain conditions.
German Chancellor: NATO's main task is to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.
Politico: The sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia may be introduced at the beginning of next week. The new package of sanctions could include a "certain ban" on Russian oil imports, as well as cutting off new Russian banks from SWIFT.
Taiwan will provide $3 million in aid for the needs of Kyiv and, additionally, $5 million for 6 medical institutions in Ukraine.
BBC News: The Netherlands will completely stop buying coal, oil, and gas from Russia by the end of the year, the country's government said.
Belgium will provide military aid to Ukraine, - In particular, we are talking about:
- 5 thousand assault rifles manufactured by FN Herstal;
- 200 units of anti-tank weapons;
- 3800 tons of fuel and body armor.
Russian comedian Maxim Galkin says that he will donate part of the money earned during the tour in Israel to help Ukrainian refugees
Romania supports international investigation of Russian actions, - Romanian Foreign Minister. "We are united with the Ukrainian people. Those who died in Ukraine are our brothers and sisters, our parents and our children. These crimes must not go unpunished."
Reuters: Binance disclosed personal data of users to the Federal Security Service of Russia.
U.S. sheet glass manufacturer Guardian Industries exits Russian assets due to 'current circumstances', - the company statement
Wall Street Journal The West is still buying Russian oil, but it's harder to track now. Russian oil exports to the EU rose to 1.6 million bpd in April from 1.3 million barrels of oil per day in March.
In a phone conversation with Putin, President of the European Council Charles Michel demanded the immediate opening of humanitarian corridors in Mariupol and other eastern Ukrainian cities on the occasion of Easter.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says security guarantees to Ukraine would make the country "immune" to attacks in the future.
NATIONAL
Ukrainian airports appeared in the flight booking system. For some European destinations, bookings are open as early as July 2022.
British Intelligence:
· Despite increased activity, Russian forces have made little progress in the past 24 hours as Ukrainian counterattacks continue to hamper their efforts.
· Russian air and naval forces have not gained control in any area due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian air and naval defenses, reducing their ability to make noticeable progress.
· Despite the claimed conquest of Mariupol, fierce fighting continues, nullifying Russian attempts to capture the city and further slowing their desired advance in the Donbass.
· British Intelligence comment on Sergei Shoigu’s, the Minister of Defense of Russia, following remark "we are implementing new combat methods in order to better adapt our troops for the current armed confrontation" they believe it to be an indirect confession that the Russian invasion is not going according to plan. However, adopting better "tactics, machinery and procedures" takes time. Especially when it comes to maneuvering ground warfare. The Russian Military will continue to rely on the old tactics while the new ones arrive, which means they will mainly rely on their artillery. And the result will be them failing to defeat the Ukrainian Military.
Ukraine Ministry of Defence:
· Russian naval groups in the Black Sea and Azov Seas continue to maintain blockades and reconnaissance. Two Russian vessels capable of launching up to sixteen cruise missiles and four Russian submarines that can strike at Ukraine are deployed in the Black Sea.
· In Donbas eight Russian attacks were repelled in the past 24 hours, nine tanks, eighteen armored and thirteen vehicles, a fuel tanker, and three artillery systems were destroyed.
· Putins private mercenary force "Wagner" completed training of 200 personnel and deployed them to Donbas.
· In Mariupol, Russian troops continue to block "Azovstal", conduct airstrikes and brought in a unit to demine Mariupol’s port.
· In Zaporizhzhia the Russians added another battalion tactical group from the 19th motorized rifle division of the 58th combined-arms army of the Southern Military District.
· Russian forces in Donbas are focused on Severodonetsk, Sloviansk, Novotoshkivske, Rubizhne, Popasne and Marinka.
· 5 battalion tactical groups are attacking Izium.
· Russians are shelling advancing Ukrainian forces entering Kherson from Mykolaiv.
Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine: A Ukrainian court has seized the ore mining and processing enterprise of Russian Billionaire Shelkov in Ukraine.
Paramount allows free Europe-wide access to Nickelodeon content with Ukrainian audio.
A fake video of Volodymyr Zelenskyi with a white powder on his table is viral in Russia. They are using footage from March 6th. However, the white powder is missing from the original footage.
Security Service of Ukraine: The FSB (Russian Security Service) started to "protect" the Russian military marauders. They seize expensive goods stolen in Ukraine from them, and promise not to prosecute them for this.
Minister of Internal Affairs said emergency service personnel saved more than 1,200 people from the rubble, neutralized more than 70,000 rounds of live ammunition, including more than 2,000 bombs.
DONBAS
Luhansk Regional Military Administration:
· Russians hit a transformer substation that helps to supply water to the central districts of Lysychansk, Novodruzhesk and Pryvilne. Those cities are devoid of water.
· Two people were killed during shelling in Popasna - the city is under heavy Russian fire, -
· The Russian army shelled residential infrastructure in the Luhansk region 12 times during April 22. Popasna was hit the hardest. In addition to the fact that street battles continued in the city for several weeks, the Russian army constantly shelled high-rise buildings and private homes.
US Permanent Representative OSCE: The Russian Federation might have used tear gas mixed with chemicals in Mariupol.
Mariupol City Council published an intercepted conversation of Russian soldiers in Mariupol. They are talking about a mop-up brigade: "We need a tractor for the dead. Take the bags, “lists a number of locations” and go to the Drama Theater'' .
Deputy mayor of Mariupol: A second mass grave found in Mariupol. "This time in the Livoberezhnyi district near the cemetery of the village of Vynohradne. This again confirms that the occupiers organized collection / burial / cremation sites of dead Mariupol residents in every city district."
KHARKIV
Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:
· One person was killed, six were injured in the village of Korotych, Kharkiv region of Ukraine, as a result of shelling by Russian troops
· Kharkiv terminal of Nova Poshta (Delivery Service) damaged after the morning shelling by Russian troops.
· Chuhuiv hit by shelling
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Mykolaiv: Last night, Russian troops hit a bar in a residential area. The blast wave shattered the windows in nearby houses..
Explosions have been heard in Kherson, according to local residents. Today, Ukraine reported that they have destroyed a Russian Army command center in the Kherson Region, along with 3 senior officers who were inside at the time of the attack.
Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights: In Kakhovka Russian soldiers set up a torture room in the police premises
As of April 22, the bodies of 1084 civilians were found in the Kyiv region. 50-75% of these people were shot dead by the Russian military.
20 people were injured due to Russian aggression in the Mykolaiv region over the past two days.
REST OF UKRAINE
In Zhitomir today, 8,000 Easter cakes were consecrated for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Sumy Regional Military Administration: At the moment, at least 155 Sumy civilians are in captivity in Russia.
Russian soldiers destroyed almost 3,000 monuments at the Yatsevo cemetery in Chernihiv
Prosecutor General Three missile strikes on the railway station of the Novomoskovskyi district (Dnipro) were carried out by Russian soldiers yesterday.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis
It sounds like an attack might be developing to liberate Kherson. Does it look like it might be liberated any time soon?
"The Russian Federation states that “during the second phase of the special operation” they plan to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine, providing a corridor to the Crimea and an exit to Transnistria, where allegedly “facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are observed.”
And it won't stop there, not at all: " From a geopolitical point of view, the integration of
Romania and Moldova is inevitable, but at the same time Moscow should strive to
carry out this unification for its own purposes in order to include this space in the zone
of its direct strategic control. The culture of Romania is, on the whole, a typical
Orthodox model, directly linking these lands with Eurasia. The only obstacle to the
perfect integration of these lands into Russia is the language factor and geopolitical
proximity to Catholic regions. Moreover,
Through Romania, Moldova and Central Ukraine, there is a continuous strip inhabited
by Orthodox peoples, connecting the lands of Russia with Serbia, the outpost of
Eurasia in the Balkans. It is in the interests of Eurasia to turn this entire region into a
single strategic and cultural region, in fact, into one country. This requires Moscow to
initiate the Moldovan-Romanian integration, the sign of which should initially be
defined as Orthodox and Eurasian. At the same time, it is important that the Romanian
Orthodox enclave from the east and from the west is closed by the Slavic Orthodox
peoples, Ukrainians and Serbs, thus ensuring
- 219 -
continuity of territorial integration based not so much on ethnicity as on confessional
and cultural kinship. At the same time, such an "Orthodox bloc" from the Dniester to
Montenegro, in the center of which a united Romania should be located, should be
formed in cooperation with Berlin, which is given the more western part of Central
Europe from Prussia through the Czech Republic and Slovakia to Hungary and Austria,
and then to Croatia, i.e. to the Adriatic. If we add to this the eastern protrusion of
Poland and East Prussia, which goes to Germany to the north, then the natural
continuation of Russia to the west in the Balkan region would be logical and
acceptable, not violating the geopolitical balance of Central Europe, which
geopolitically belongs to the sphere of influence of Germany. ... At the same time, Germany itself should initially put forward a fundamental requirement: all integration processes in
Central Europe, where Berlin's geopolitical domination is frank, as well as all transformations in Western Europe, aiming to orient the European powers towards Germany, should exclude the principle of ethnic domination of Germans in cultural , political, confessional or ideological area. Europe should be European, and Central Europe should be Central European, i.e. the entire linguistic, ethnic and spiritual identity of the peoples of Europe must flourish and be encouraged by Berlin, whose priority must be exclusively geopolitical and social, and by no means racial. Moscow is also responsible for many Central European ethnic groups due to racial kinship with them (Slavism).
Moreover, it is ethnocentrism and national the racial arrogance of the Germans has more than once led to bloody conflicts in Europe. Throughout the entire geopolitical reorganization of Europe, Russia must act as a guarantor that Berlin will strictly separate geopolitics and race, "soil and blood" in order to knowingly rule out tragedies like Hitler's adventure. Any signs of German nationalism in matters of the geopolitical reorganization of Europe must be
mercilessly suppressed by Berlin itself; all processes must take place on the basis of the strictest observance of the "rights of peoples", full autonomy of cultures, religions and languages. Any signs of German nationalism in matters of the geopolitical reorganization of Europe must be mercilessly suppressed by Berlin itself; all processes must take
place on the basis of the strictest observance of the "rights of peoples", full autonomy of cultures, religions and languages. Any signs of German nationalism in matters of the geopolitical reorganization of Europe must be mercilessly suppressed by Berlin itself; all processes must take place on the basis of the strictest observance of the "rights of peoples", full autonomy of cultures, religions and languages." https://n01r.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Foundations-of-Geopolitics-Geopolitical-Future-of-Russia-Alexander-Dugin-English-auto-translation-with-appended-original.pdf at p220
Under this particular scheme, "Berlin" is just another name for Moscow, what is in mind is a total Russian domination of Europe - with all that entails... If this were more generally known in Europe, they might have more enthusiasm for nipping this in the bud in Ukraine.