Ukraine – 4/19 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 19, 2022
List of Volunteer Organizations From Prof. Timothy Snyder
Some of you have asked for the names and coordinates of other organizations that are working in Ukraine and Poland, that need support. In his latest Substack post Timothy Snyder, a History Professor at Yale and author of the book “Bloodlands,” has compiled a list which you can see here. In addition, my friend’s volunteer group has now raised $7,525.00. Again, thank you!
Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware)
Sen. Chris Coons who, like Pres. Biden, is from the State of Delaware, is likely Biden’s closest friend in the U.S. Congress. Some believe that Sen. Coons sometimes plays the role of saying things that Biden, as President, prefers not to say. Last week, Sen. Coons gave Sen. Arthur Vanderburg Lecture at the University of Michigan School of Public Policy. Arthur Vandenberg was a Senator from Michigan, who changed from being an isolationist prior to WW-II, to a strong supporter of U.S. overseas involvement after WW-II, by supporting the Marshall Plan, the Berlin Airlift and establishment of NATO. During his lecture, Sen. Coons described the circumstances under which the United States may intervene directly in Ukraine. Sen. Coons also mildly criticized Pres. Biden for stating that the United States would not intervene in Ukraine. You can see Sen. Coons’ remarks here.
George Friedman, Redux
Those of you who are long-time email recipients, going back over 8 years, may remember that I was not a George Friedman Fan. However, here he provides a very strong argument that the locus of power in the EU has shifted east, from France, Germany, and the Low Countries, to Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Slovenia, all of which are strong supporters of Ukraine’s entrance into the EU.
War Crimes
Until now the sole focus of war crimes investigations has seemed to be on war crimes committed by Russian soldiers. Short of murders and torture of Ukrainian citizens, there are other war crimes committed by Russians that are just as insidious, including:
Forced deportations of Ukrainians to Russia. The number may well exceed 40,000.
Kidnappings and liquidations of municipal officials in temporarily occupied Ukrainian cities and towns.
Forced re-education of teachers, and the forced imposition of Russian curriculum, in schools in temporarily occupied Ukrainian towns and cities.
Organization of illegal referendums in temporarily occupied Ukrainian towns and cities.
As was shown during the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea, the activities described above are just as much part of the Russian playbook than the murder and torture of civilians, and they should be equally treated as war crimes.
The Launching of the “Easter(n) Offensive”
The latest report from the Institute for the Study of War notes that the Russians are launching their offensive with depleted tactical battle groups, largely due to losses around Kyiv and Russia’s inability to attract sufficient reserves. Even if Russia was able to attract sufficient reserves, according to ISW they would be entering the offensive without sufficient training.
4/19 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)
One of the things I learnt while farming is that if something is wrong you fix it. If you can’t fix it yourself, you got help. My neighbors were of the same mind, so they helped. No one will do it for you if you aren’t ready to do it yourself.
The current Ukrainian – Russian war exemplifies this behavior. A simple illustration of this in the side-by-side photo of chaos and order in the streets of Bucha.
More volunteers came forward to help Bucha than was effective to restore order. As a result, the local government with volunteer help cleaned what they could and prepared for reconstruction and repair of residential housing. This was done without having to make budget amendments, based on a cleanup plan, passed by council, which issues work orders, applies for reconstruction funds, waits for them to arrive, etc., etc., etc. All of this before the war has ended.
Ukraine’s army and territorial defense force face the same problem. More volunteers than it can arm or use effectively.
Fortunately for Ukraine citizens and government are of like mind, currently. Government is not turning away citizen’s initiative but working with it to achieve results no government could on its own.
Most analysts ignore people, and instead focus on what they can see or count. This has a very strong application in the social sciences. The folly of this way of measuring and inference applies to hypothesis produced by professions ranging from military and political science to economics.
The unforeseeable consequence of overreliance on professional opinion concerning invasion outcomes is the red faces of western governments, of all stripes, and the gloomy faces of the Russian government.
The Azov Battalion - Although many have admitted mistaken opinions there is an equally large number who refuse to see the light. This is particularly true of the bugbear, fed by Russian disinformation and fakes, “AZOV BATTALION”.
The Azov Battalion has been decried by everyone from the Atlantic Council and Financial Times to Trump and Izvestia. The reason is that the Azov Battalion founders, at the height of the Maidan, stated that they are of the same opinion as Ukrainian right-wing nationalists who arose between the first and second world wars. These nationalists were not nice, but effective in that they maintained a partisan struggle against Soviet occupation to 1954, without any outside assistance.
The bugbear is that they were not nice, and therefore Azov is not nice. Because the Ukrainian government did not disband or de legitimize Azov, it is of the same mind, and it too is not nice. The argument then goes right-wing nationalists are fascists therefore the Ukrainian government is fascist. The Ukrainian government is the government of the Ukrainian people therefore Ukrainians are fascists. To solve this problem, liquidate Ukrainians.
Personally, I would hate to see the same logic applied to France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Hungary, to name 3 European countries where extreme right-wing parties are supported by a significant portion of the electorate or, in the case of Hungary, make up the ruling Party. In Ukraine, the last time a right-wing Party, Svoboda, entered Parliament was in the 2012 Parliamentary election when Yanukovich was President. In the 2014 Parliamentary election, held after the end of the Revolution of Dignity, Svoboda only received 2% of the vote, well below the 5% threshold for admission to Parliament.
This argument, which has been put forward since the end of World War II by Soviets, and now Russians and most that see Ukraine through Soviet/Russian prisms, misses the point. Ukrainians started supporting Azov when it assisted the debilitated Ukrainian army in 2014 to liberate Mariupol from Russian occupation. 99% of Azov’s members know the names of the right-wing Ukrainian nationalists and that they resisted the Soviet occupation until 1954. Maybe 1% of Azov, have a view on the rest of the history of interwar, war time and post war right-wing Ukrainian nationalists.
100% of Ukrainians know that Azov was instrumental in liberating Mariupol in 2014, and that Azov will fight to the end to stop Russian occupation and destroy Russian occupiers. The last is what matters to Ukrainians and what motivates their attitude and behavior towards Azov. The rest is irrelevant.
The really important point is that Azov as an ideologically driven paramilitary no longer exists. The paramilitary unit was incorporated into Ukraine’s National Guard and operates under National Guard doctrine and command from 2016.
Unfortunately, those driven by ideological and historical conditions of World War II and the Cold War have never left those theaters and never will. They can’t accept that the ideological Azov does not exist. They can’t help themselves and their neighbors never will as well.
Alas poor Russia, I knew him well.
INTERNATIONAL
Putin awarded the rank of "Guards" to the 64th separate motorized rifle brigade. This is an honor in the Russian military ranking. It was this brigade that committed genocide in Bucha. I assume that the names of the individual members of this unit are known to Ukrainian State Security, the SBU, and that the SBU will endeavor to proceed along the same lines as Mossad, when Mossad succeeded in liquidating every Palestinian who participated in the murder of the Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics.
According to the Pentagon there are 76 Russian battalion tactical groups in the Donbas and the country’s southeast. 11 of those were added over the last several days. There another 22 battalion tactical groups located north of Ukraine that are being rearmed. Russia started the war with 120 battalion tactical groups.
Ukrainians without visas and documents will be allowed to temporarily stay for 18 months in the United States of America. The US Department of Homeland Security says that Ukrainians who have been in the country since April 11 can apply for the so-called temporary protected status (TPS). Approximately 60,000 Ukrainians will be able to apply starting Tuesday.
Joe Biden is convening an urgent meeting of world leaders due to new Russian offensive. Expected are the heads of states: France, Germany, Great Britain, Canada, Italy, Poland, and Romania. As well as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and President of the European Council Charles Michel.
The President of Turkey says peace talks have stalled as the footage from Bucha and Irpin and the, the use of Kramatorsk civilians as targets cast a shadow
The United States sent 5 aircraft with weapons from a new $800 million package over the weekend said the White House press secretary in commentary to the note of the Russian Federation with a warning about the consequences of supplying Ukraine with weapons.
The governor of the Belgorod region in Russia reported the shelling Golovchino with one dead.
Kyiv’s Mayor announced the receipt of 12 reanimobiles from Munich, and other German cities handed over 8 fire and rescue vehicles to Kyiv.
The Russian military-industrial complex will be the next target of US sanctions, said the US Treasury Department.
Telegram owner Pavel Durov announced the release of an update that translates news from Ukrainian. To enable the “Translate” button, go to “Settings”and select “Languages” function.
Children demonstrated support for Ukraine by placing notes in St. Stephens cathedral in Vienna, while on the outside their appeared a supporting banner. Demonstrators supporting Ukraine marched in Helsinki yesterday.
Large-scale NATO military exercises started in Latvia, running from April 18 to May 27.
Ukrainian forces liquidated the Russian commander of the amphibious landing ship ""Caesar Kunikov".
Russia closed access to the Human Rights Watch website.
Putin claims that the sanctions have not worked and that Russia needs to speed up switching external trades to RUR and national currency of the countries who are our "reliable partners" Meanwhile the Head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said the Russian economy is entering a difficult period of structural changes, the sanctions have already affected the financial sector and will now affect the real one.
Paramount is halting all broadcasting in Russia from April 20 including Nickelodeon, Nick Jr., NickToons, Paramount Comedy, MTV Russia and MTV Live HD.
Spotify is no longer available on the App Store and Google Play for users in Russia
Britain will soon send Stormer HVM armored launchers to the Ukraine.
Japan will hand over nuclear, biological and chemical defense suits and masks, as well as drones to Ukraine.
All brigades of the Russian Marines have suffered losses in the war against Ukraine, according to the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT). According to them, the Marines are one of Russia's most combat-ready and trained units.
NATIONAL
17 diplomatic missions have returned to Kyiv.
UNICEF estimates that damage to Ukraine’s left 4.6 million people with limited access to water. In total, over 6 million people in Ukraine are struggling every day to access drinking water.
The prime minister of the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Germany), is facing allegations of colluding with Russian Gazprom to promote the Nord Stream 2.
Ukraine Ministry of Defense Bulletin:
In the Donbas Ukrainian troops repulsed seven Russian attacks in the past 24 hours, destroying ten tanks, eighteen armored vehicles and eight vehicles, one artillery system, as well as a Russian mortar with a crew.
Air defense hit seven targets in the previous day: one aircraft, four UAVs and two cruise missiles.
According to available information, the losses of the 126th Brigade of Coastal Defense of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation are up to 75%. The 810th Independent Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet has lost 158 servicemen killed, about 500 wounded and 70 missing.
A significant part of the servicemen of the said brigades refuse to participate in the war in Ukraine.
Belarus continues to provide its territory for air strikes and target reconnaissance.
Russian troops are concentrating an attempt to reach the administrative boundaries of the Kherson region.
Shelling of Mykolaiv continues.
Russian troops continue a partial blockade of the city of Kharkiv.
The Russian army is conducting offensive operations on the left bank of the Seversky Donets River. The Seversky Donetsk River flows from north to south, and roughly parallels the Line of Contact with occupied Donbas. The area does not quite match the descriptions of many of the pundits, of open country where Russia might have the advantage of maneuver. In many areas, the river has high banks, and much of the area is forested, like the country north of Kyiv where the Russians were chopped up by Ukrainians. To have any chance of breaking out of occupied Donbas, the Russians will have to cross this river.
In Donbas, Russian troops intensified offensives along the entire line of contact.
Yesterday missile attacks on facilities in the western oblasts intensified.
In occupied territories, Russian soldiers steal and send to Russia equipment, machinery and local products.
Ilya Navalny, who was killed in Bucha, was a distant relative of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader.
Total amount of direct damage to Ukraine's infrastructure because of the war started by Russia reached $ 84.8 billion, but the total losses reached $ 600 billion, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
Ukraine’s government started disbursing UAH 600 million (around $20 million) in assistance to internally displaced persons: 2,000 hryvnias (around $70) for an adult, 3,000 hryvnias (around $100) for a child or a person with a disability.
The Ministry of Defense published a phone number for the Russian military who want to surrender.
Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman says that over 400 people called the Psychological Assistance hotline since it began operation two weeks ago. Most of the calls were from residents of Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel. Most are looking for help in connection with sexual crimes, torture, and bullying, both against themselves and against loved ones, including children.
In temporarily occupied Henichesk, Kherson Oblast Russian forces erected a Lenin monument.
The Center for anti-disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine warns of possible provocations by Russians on Easter night, particularly in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Ukraine has sent the first part of its completed questionnaire to the European Commission to obtain the status of an EU candidate member.
Ukraine’s Monobank will close approximately 11,000 accounts of clients who are in Russia or the occupied territories of Donbas, Belarus, Northern Korea, Syria, and Eritrea.
The Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine reports that its Aid for Ukraine crypto fund has raised more than 45 million 100 thousand dollars for purchasing weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
DONBAS
⚡️ The Russians continue constant shelling in the Mariinka, Ocheretiane and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Two ground attacks on near Avdiivka were repulsed. A civilian was killed, the gas pipeline and several residential buildings were damaged in Avdiivka.
Ukrainian Forces repelled attacks on Rubizhne and Popasna overnight in Luhansk.
Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol posted a video showing Russian forces shelling Azovstal where Ukrainian are concentrated but also residential areas. He also said that there are no doctors left in the city and he estimates that there are at least 22,000 dead.
The Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhii Haidai urges the region's residents to urgently evacuate. He said that the Russians have almost destroyed Kreminna, and that 215 lost electricity due to damage inflicted on the high voltage lines in the Oblast.
Russian forces fired on ambulances evacuating wounded from Kreminna yesterday.
In Donetsk Oblast four people and 5 othersd injured according to the Regional Military Administration. Casualties in active military zones are impossible to determine.
Russians say they plan to storm the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, where at least 1,000 civilians are hiding according to Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman.
Russia is holding at least 20,000 people in filtration camps, preventing evacuation and deliberately slowing down the filtration procedures.
KHARKIV
“In the city of Izyum, the Russian military used chemical weapons,” says a local activist. The information needs confirmation.
Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated several settlements near Izium.
In Kharkiv (Ukraine), a shell hit a playground today - two people died: a woman and a man, the Kharkiv regional prosecutor's office reports.
In Kharkiv, a humanitarian aid distribution point was shelled. According to preliminary data, one person died, six were injured.
Kharkiv residents are asked to refrain from visiting cemeteries during the Easter holidays. According to the Municipal Administration, because of shelling by Russian forces, ten cemeteries were destroyed, as well as the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
⚡️ On the morning of April 19, fighting is underway in the Polohy district. The Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in Pokrovske - Huliaipole according to the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration. Huliaipole, due east of Zaporizhia, remains the high-intensity battlefield.
The hour-long assault on the positions of Ukrainian Forces near Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast, was unsuccessful.
Russians continue trying to mobilize civilians to send to the front Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Ukrainian forces have destroyed more than 70% of Russian personnel in units attacking Mykolaiv according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Yesterday in Mykolaiv Oblast, 13 people were injured due to shelling by Russian troops. In total 301 Oblast residents are in hospitals because of Russian attacks.
The Russian fleet continues to block shipping traffic on the Black Sea. However, the fleet has withdrawn to positions 200 km from the Ukrainian coastline.
In Melitopol, Russian “agents” dressed as civilians are asking locals about their mood according to journalists. “Agents” in civilian clothes sit down on a park benches and strike up conversation about what is happening in Melitopol. Then people saw these civilians going directly to administrative buildings occupied by Russian “authorities”.
REST OF UKRAINE
Communities near Kryvyi Rih were shelled overnight by ballistic rockets and artillery. Private cottages and the multi-apartment buildings are partly destroyed. There are no victims.
Kyiv’s mayor said today that there are 2 million 120 thousand people in Kyiv. He said the city was "coming back to life,” but again urged those who have the opportunity to stay in safer places not to return to the capital, as the likelihood of missile strikes by Russia is still high.
According to Ukrainian police, Russian soldiers have killed 269 civilians in Irpin.
Russian forces hit communities in Dnipro Oblast with ballistic missiles. They hit residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. As a result of the shelling, a 14-year-old girl was injured.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis