Ukraine – 4/17/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
April 17, 2023
My Friend the Former Female Sniper
A few months ago, she put away her weapon and began a new life, training drone operators. Drone operators play a critical role in Ukraine’s order of battle. Drones provide targeting information for Ukrainian artillery; they also can drop ordnance on tanks, armored personnel carriers, and troop concentrations. A major supplier of drones, especially the more sophisticated variety with fixed wings, has been former President Poroshenko.
Late last week my friend told me that she’s tired of training others, and she’s going to the Front to directly apply the skills that she has taught so effectively to others. She tells me that a significant percentage of the drone operators along the front lines are now her “alumni.”
God bless her!
NATO Gets into Russia Grille
According to an article that was originally in the NY Times, NATO is changing its forward deployment strategy, to something called “Deterrence by Denial,” described as “the permanent location of allied troops near the border with the Russian Federation, more integration of American and allied war plans, more military spending and more detailed requirements for allies to have specific kinds of forces and equipment to fight, if necessary, in pre-assigned places. "The intention is to make NATO’s forces not only more robust and more capable but also more visible to Russia, a key element of deterrence," The NYT said.”
According to the article, “Previously, in the event of a Russian invasion, member states had to hold out until allied forces, mainly the US, came to their aid and retaliated to push the Russians back. But after the Russian atrocities in areas it occupied in Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic countries no longer want to risk any period of Russian occupation. As in the first days of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian troops took land larger than some Baltic nations.”
“How the War in Ukraine Changed the IMF”/Axios
Given that the Russian Federation is an IMF Member State, I was wondering how the IMF was able to approve the recent $15.6 billion loan to Ukraine. This article, from Axios, describes the answer. According to Axios, particulars of the financing include:
· Under a new policy, in “situations of exceptionally high uncertainty,” the fund can step in, absent a plan that meets the usual criteria for debt sustainability.
· The loan to Ukraine includes “"financing assurances" from the G7 countries and the EU — meaning that these countries may be on the hook if Ukraine can't repay.
· Financing assurances need to be provided every 12 months, and if they can’t be, then the program won’t go forward.
One question has to do with the U.S. Congress being responsible for providing funding to the IMF. Does “providing funding” also include “financing assurances?” As part of its responsibility to provide funding for the IMF, can a future Congress compel IMF to remove its “financing assurances?”
News From the Battlefield
Attention should be paid to my Partner’s account of Russian missile strikes on other cities in Ukraine, other than Kyiv. While Kyiv and Western Ukraine have largely avoided Russian missile strikes by S-300s and other Russian missiles, that is not the case with other Ukrainian cities. Russians are still hitting civilian targets over a large area of Ukraine, mostly in east, south and north. Last Friday they hit an apartment building in Sloviansk, located approximately 25KM from Bakhmut, killing 11 people. Yesterday, the Russians struck a church in Nikopol, across the river from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, during an Orthodox Easter Sunday service.
Both “Reporting From Ukraine” and the Latest Denys describe the situation in Bakhmut as nearly a stalemate. Reporting From Ukraine describes Russian advances in the City Center having almost come to a halt, and the Ukrainians holding the flanks north and south of the City, and even making small advances. Denys reports that Ukraine has destroyed a bridge that serves to trap the Russians between a river and Ukrainian forces located along the railroad. Both believe that as long as Ukraine controls the 2 supply roads (and at least 1 supply tunnel), that Ukraine won’t withdraw from the portion of Bakhmut that they continue to hold.
Denys’ report is quite long. Here are some highlights:
· At around 11:30 into the video Denys states that Ukraine will starts its offensive with around 140,000 soldiers, nowhere close to the classic 3/1 advantage in men that most experts say is necessary to conduct an offensive. They will also have no air superiority. To compensate, it is likely that Ukraine is going to need to rely on long-range artillery to destroy Russian ammunition depots and troop concentrations, deception, demoralized Russian troops and some like. Ukraine has already started doing so.
· At 13:45 into the video, Denys takes the Ukrainian Defense Ministry to task for lack of preparedness before Russia’s invasion started.
· At 14:30 Denys starts talking about the fact that the Russians were able cross into the territory of southern Ukraine, located between the Dnieper River and the Sea of Azov, unopposed. Ukraine did nothing to cut off the Crimean crossings, giving Russia free access to southern Ukraine. Also, without a fight, they were able to cross the Dnieper, take Kherson and, without some very enterprising Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, they could’ve taken Mykolaiv, and succeed in crossing the Southern Bug River on the way to Odesa. The only city in the south that was contested was Mariupol.
Ukrainian troops are now tasked with retaking territory in the South that Russia took without a fight, largely the result of alleged treason by local Ukrainian commanders. Specifically, approaches from Crimea could’ve been mined or destroyed, along with bridges across the Dnieper that allowed the Russians to enter Kherson.
The only areas in Ukraine that Russia has taken where they were contested, and where Russia still controls, are relatively small areas of Donbas, including Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, Soledar, and some areas around Donetsk City. Were it not for the treason of a few Ukrainian commanders responsible for the south, this war could well be over by now.
4/17/23 Sitrep
From Bohdan –
Ukraine continues to prepare for a counteroffensive, and concurrently people and cities keep rebuilding damaged property. One question that has been getting attention recently is disrupted school programs. This question is very difficult to address as approximately 400,000 children in Europe are continuing the Ukrainian distance education program that started with COVID. At the same time distance education is vital for children near the front as parents and educators try to minimize large gatherings of children in schools. Will these children get the education they deserve?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon April 16 to 12:00 noon April 17, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Monday April 17
11:03 AM: A gas cylinder exploded in a residential building in Kazakhstan, the entrance collapsed.
· It happened in the city of Zhanaozen. According to the Emergencies Ministry, one person died, 12 were injured. There may still be people under the rubble, including children.
10:13 AM: Slovakia has already transferred all 13 declared MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.
· This was announced by Minister of Defense Yaroslav Nagy.
· After four units were run by Ukrainian pilots in March this year, the remaining 9 units were successfully transferred to Ukrainian forces.
9:34 AM: G7 countries agree to better respond to sanctions evasion and arms supplies to Russia, Japan's Foreign Ministry said.
· In addition, the G7 foreign ministers reaffirmed that they remain committed to strengthening, fully coordinating and imposing sanctions against Russia, as well as continuing strong support for Ukraine.
8:58 AM: YouTube crashes reported – Downdetector
· Users complain about problems with watching/downloading video broadcasts and incorrect operation of the mobile application.
8:00 AM The Guardian: ISIS is suspected of killing 30 people in Syria – truffle pickers and shepherds.
07:59 AM: In Prague, a pro-Russian party held an anti-government demonstration. It was directed against the current government under the leadership of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, - Czech Radio.
Sunday April 16
10:26 PM: Ukraine to receive AN-124 cargo plane confiscated from Russia from Canada, says Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
· "We are preparing for the confiscation of the AN-124 aircraft and other assets of the aggressor in Canada and their transfer to Ukraine," he said.
9:06 pm: The United States is negotiating possible mechanisms that would allow the transfer of Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine.
· It is reported by CNN with reference to a statement by US Treasury Secretary Jannette Yellen.
· "This is a responsibility that I think the world community expects from Russia," Yellen said.
8:35 PM El Tiempo: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called for the creation of an analogue of the G20 to mediate the war in Ukraine.
· According to the publication, the President of Brazil called for the creation of the "Big Twenty" with the participation of Latin America, China and the UAE.
· "I think we find people who prefer to talk about peace rather than war. I think we will succeed," Silva said.
4:51 PM- NL Times: The Netherlands will provide 100 million euros to finance farms in Ukraine and to purchase generators.
· "40 million euros will be used specifically for agricultural enterprises so that they can buy grain or replace broken agricultural machinery this season," said Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Lishe Schreinemacher.
3:51 pm: Italy has transferred about 30 M109L self-propelled artillery units (self-propelled guns) to Ukraine, La Repubblica reports.
· According to the newspaper, the train with them passed on Saturday through the station in the northern city of Udine.
NATIONAL
Monday April 17
11:47 AM: Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov apologized on Twitter for comparing Ukraine's losses in the war with the number of earthquake victims in Turkey:
· "I sincerely apologize to everyone in Ukraine or Turkey who was offended by my comments in an interview with the Spanish newspaper La Razon. Ukrainians sympathize with the Turkish people. We understand what it means to bury thousands of innocent people – friends and neighbors. I am grateful to our Turkish friends for their continued support and firm position on Crimea since the beginning of the Russian invasion."
11:31 AM: British intelligence names regions of Ukraine with the greatest mine danger
· The most contaminated territories of Ukraine with mines and explosive devices are Kherson and Kharkiv regions, which were liberated from the Russians. Since the beginning of the invasion, more than 750 civilian casualties have been recorded, with a child injured in every eighth case.
10:31 AM: In nine months, we have received dozens of videos with executions of the Ukrainian military by the Russian occupiers, says Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.
· Also, the interview states that Russians deliberately shoot and post videos of abuse and torture of Ukrainian soldiers in order to maintain a "degree of anti-Ukrainian hysteria" within Russia itself.
9:14 AM: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to visit Iraq today
· It is planned that in Baghdad, Kuleba will hold talks with Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Sudan and Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iraq Fouad Hussein.
7:17 AM General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Over the past day, the Russians launched 25 missile strikes with S-300 air defense systems on the peaceful cities of Zaporizhzhia, Komyshuvakha and Snihurivka; as well as 42 air strikes.
· They carried out 46 MLRS attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and the infrastructure of settlements. There are dead and wounded among the civilian population, destroyed and damaged multi-storey and private residential buildings, civilian educational institutions, hospitals, churches and other civilian infrastructure.
· Russians suffer considerable losses, but continue to focus their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions
· Actively use operational-tactical and army aviation in these areas. Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities. During the day, in these sectors of the front, Ukrainian soldiers repelled more than 60 attacks of the Russian Federation.
· Aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine over the past day inflicted 5 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel and anti-aircraft missile system of the Russian Federation.
· Also, 4 UAVs were shot down (2 - type "Orlan-10", 1 reconnaissance "Eleron" and 1 kamikaze drone "Lancet", - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit a control point, an anti-aircraft missile system, an area of concentration of manpower, a fuel and lubricant depot and 2 Russian ammunition depots.
1:04 AM: For the first time since returning from captivity, a Ukrainian soldier saw his beloved
· The video was published by the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War
Sunday April 16
10:00 PM: Iran has condemned 10 servicemen for involvement in the downing of a Ukrainian airliner in 2020, Radio Liberty reports.
· According to the publication, the court found air defense servicemen involved in the downing of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 on January 8, 2020, which caused the death of 176 people.
· It is reported that the commander was sentenced to 10 years in prison, and the rest of the military received terms of one to three years.
6:50 PM Update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on April 16:
· "Over the past day, the enemy launched 25 missile strikes from the S-300 air defense system on the peaceful cities of Zaporizhzhia, Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region and Snihurivka in the Mykolaiv region; as well as 28 air strikes.
· He carried out 4 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements."
· "The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions.
· Actively uses operational-tactical and army aviation in these areas. Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities.
· During the day, in these sectors of the front, our defenders repulsed more than 45 enemy attacks."
· "In the village of Vysokoye, Zaporizhzhia region, the occupiers equipped a sports hall of a local school as a military hospital.
· Medical services are provided exclusively to Russian servicemen.
· As of April 15, about 100 occupiers were being treated with wounds of varying degrees of severity."
· "Russians continue to rob civilians in Ukraine, appropriating the grain crop of civilians.
· Thus, in the city of Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia region, the so-called Russian occupation "authorities" are trying to take out stolen corn by loading it onto barges."
· "In the village of Tavria, Kherson region, the invaders are actively making a house tour of local residents in order to check the availability of a Russian passport.
· Citizens of Ukraine who have not received a Russian passport have been informed that in case of failure to complete documents by June 1, such a person will be deported with confiscation of all personal property."
· "Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 5 strikes on areas of concentration of personnel and anti-aircraft missile system of the occupiers.
· Our defenders shot down 4 enemy UAVs (2 - type "Orlan-10", 1 reconnaissance "Eleron" and 1 kamikaze drone "Lancet")".
· "During the day, units of rocket troops and artillery hit a control point, an anti-aircraft missile system, an area of concentration of enemy manpower, weapons and military equipment, a fuel and lubricant depot and 2 enemy ammunition depots."
4:21 PM: The Defence Intelligence Directorate officially confirmed that it has an American Black Hawk helicopter.
· The DIU emphasizes that Black Hawk is already taking part in hostilities, including on enemy territory. Officially, its transfer was not reported.
2:51 PM: 7 Russian ships are on alert in the Black Sea, including 2 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total salvo of up to 8 missiles, - the Ukrainian Navy.
2:21 PM: The number of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is less than 50 thousand, - Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in an interview with Larazon.
· "Of course, we have casualties because we are at war. But they are critically smaller than the Russian ones. I cannot give you a figure, but I can assure you that the total number is less than the death toll from the earthquake in Turkey (according to the latest data, it is more than 50 thousand people)," he said.
1:51 pm: For the first time in three hundred years, the Easter service at the Assumption Cathedral of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra was held in Ukrainian.
Mordor - russia
Monday April 17
8:43 AM Institute For the Study of War: The Wagnerites are likely forcing mobilized Russians to sign contracts with PMCs to compensate for their own losses in Ukraine.
Sunday April 16
11:54 PM: In Belgorod, a drone attacked a thermal power plant, a fire broke out at a power plant. As a result, the city partially lost light. This was reported on local social networks.
11:01 PM The Guardian: The YouTube platform allows videos promoting the Russian PMC Wagner.
· In addition to promoting the paramilitary organization, these videos raise money for ammunition and even urge viewers to join the relevant PMC.
· At the same time, a Youtube spokesperson claims that content intended to glorify or aid violent extremist organizations is banned from the platform.
9:36 PM: Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met Putin in Moscow, according to Russian media.
· "We have a very strong relationship. They surpass the military-political alliances of the times of the Cold War, are built on the principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation with a third party," Shangfu said about the Russian-Chinese cooperation.
· He also said that Putin's personal friendship with Xi Jinping plays a big role in setting strategic goals.
KHARKIV
Monday April 17
9:47 AM Kharkiv RMA: On Easter, settlements of Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Chuhuiv and Izyum districts were under Russian fire.
· As a result of shelling in Vovchansk, at least 11 private residential buildings were damaged and fires occurred. In Kurylivka village, mortar shelling damaged a private household. A private residential building was also damaged due to shelling in the village of Pershotravneve.
Sunday April 16
12:31 PM Kharkiv RMA: Last day, the enemy shelled the border and frontline settlements of Kharkiv, Chuhuiv and Kupiansk districts of the region
· In the village of Petropavlivka, Kupiansk district, enemy fire damaged two private houses, destroyed a car and a tractor. There were no casualties.
· As of 12:00, the body of another man was recovered from the rubble of a five-story building in Sloviansk
· According to operational information, there may still be people under the rubble of the house. Emergency rescue work continues. In total, as a result of the attack on the city on April 14, 12 people were killed, 21 were injured.
DONETSK
Monday April 17
8:27 AM Donetsk RMA: On April 16, it was possible to establish information about 4 dead as a result of a missile strike on Sloviansk.
Sunday April 16
8:06 PM Donetsk RMA: Debris clearance of multi-storey building completed in Sloviansk after Russian missile strike on April 14
· According to the head of the OVA, it is known about 15 dead, 24 people were injured.
5:23 PM State Emergency Service: In Sloviansk, the body of a dead woman was retrieved from under the rubble of a destroyed house,
· It is known that during the rescue operation, 153 tons of building structures were dismantled.
· According to the National Police, 2 more people may be under the rubble.
3:21 PM Operational Command East: Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated more than 120 occupiers in Bakhmut sector during the day.
· "During this day, in the Bakhmut sector, the enemy stubbornly continued to hit our positions: 265 shelling from barrel and rocket artillery. There were 31 clashes, only in the area of Bakhmut itself – 30. The city itself was shelled 97 times," he said.
12:06 PM Donetsk RMA: On April 15, Russians wounded 4 residents of Donetsk region, - Donetsk regional administration head Pavlo Kyrylenko.
· In addition, it was possible to establish information about 2 dead and 3 wounded as a result of a missile strike on Sloviansk.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday April 16
10:43 PM Zaporizhia RMA: in the evening, the enemy attacked country houses in the Zaporizhia region.
· Broken windows, broken facades, cars.
· No one was injured.
DNIPRO
Sunday April 16
11:30 pm: The head of the Nikopol Regional State Administration, Yevhen Yevtushenko, said that in the afternoon, the Russian army twice attacked communities in the Nikopol district using barrel artillery.
· As a result of shelling, two civilians were injured in the area.
· A temple, five private houses, four outbuildings, two cars, and power lines were damaged. One outbuilding was destroyed.
· outbuildings were damaged in the city, and another was destroyed.
· In addition to the temple, five residential buildings, two cars, several power lines, four
1:26 PM Dnipro RMA: Today, Russians shelled a temple in Nikopol, injuring a 57-year-old man and a 38-year-old woman.
KHERSON
Monday April 17
10:46 AM Kherson RMA: Russians shelled peaceful settlements of Kherson region 46 times.
· Residential areas of Kherson were attacked three times by the Russian army. Over the past day, there have been no civilian casualties.
Sunday April 16
8:24 PM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson
CHERNIHIV
Monday April 17
12:31 AM Chernihiv RMA: In the Chernihiv region - the largest flood in 10 years. A number of cities and towns were flooded due to rising water levels in rivers.
· According to forecasts, if the water rises further, then 22 settlements, where more than 4 thousand people live, are at risk of flooding.
· According to the latest data, 225 houses remain flooded, of which 187 are summer cottages, almost 11 thousand hectares of farmland in Rivne, Volyn and Cherkasy regions.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka