Ukraine – 4/16/23 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
April 16, 2023
Interesting Discussion at my Secondary School Reception
Last Monday, at a reception in Washington put on by the secondary school from where I graduated, I had a discussion with a faculty member, the Head of the Humanities Department, who said that she is half Russian. She was a very nice person, whose argument about the outcome of the war consisted of the refrain, “Russia will never stop.” Her implication was that it was up to Ukraine to stop, likely prodded by Ukraine’s Western allies, even though by doing so it would substantially increase the risk of Ukraine ultimately losing the war and, as a result, exposing Ukrainians to Russia’s on going genocide against Ukrainians.
Maybe Lawrence Freedman is right, when he said in his latest blog, “I am less convinced than others that they (Russia/Putin) can continue to brush off one setback after another simply because that is what autocratic police states can do, pretending to their people that nothing seriously has gone wrong.” Her comment, that “Russia will never stop,” completely ignores the position Ukrainians will find themselves in if Ukraine loses the war – the loss of their country and the ongoing genocide perpetrated by Russia against Ukrainians that began in places like Bucha, Irpin and Mariupol, and continues.
Ukraine is not going to stop, and there is nothing Ukraine’s Western allied can do to get them to stop.
The Latest Lawrence Freedman – “Time For Ukraine’s Offensive?”/ Substack
In his latest Substack Blog, Freedman concludes that Ukraine’s offensive could begin around the end of April. He bases his prediction on weapons deliveries, and the return of Ukrainian troops that have been training in the U.K. and elsewhere. Added to this is the improving weather. It has been a very wet early Spring in Ukraine, but long-range forecasts show that weather conditions are expected to dry out starting the latter part of April, both in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, the most likely areas where Ukraine’s offensive might be conducted. He covers the Leaks, the Russian offensive, and the planned Ukrainian counterattack.
Here are some selected remarks from Freedman’s blog (my comments in parentheses):
The Leaks –
· “It is always important, however, to keep in mind that just because an analysis has been designated ‘top secret’ that does not make it correct. The classification normally refers to the sources of the information rather than the quality of the conclusions. More importantly, the analyses are at least a month and a half old and, in some cases, older. The decisions they were intended to shape have since been taken, and in some cases will have addressed the problems identified.”
· “For Ukrainians it is no doubt irritating to learn that the American military are not exactly optimistic on their behalf. On the other hand, it can help them explain to their impatient population why rushing into an offensive before everything is in place might be unwise. It also reinforces their pleas to their backers to show more urgency in helping fill the capability gaps identified. And it keeps the Russians guessing, wondering whether this material (included in the leaks) is really so enlightening or an elaborate ruse to confuse them about Ukrainian plans.” (Since the beginning of the war, both the American military and the Biden Administration have maintained less-than-optimistic assessments of Ukraine’s military capabilities. Both have been consistently wrong. Why should one believe that all of a sudden, they’re now correct?)
The Russian Offensive –
· “The other thing that has happened since the leaked assessments were completed was that the Russian offensive has failed.” (After the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, former Russian commander Sergey Surovokin was demoted. To almost everyone else, other than Putin and Shoigu, withdrawing 20,000 Russian troops, plus most of their equipment, across the Dnieper River in one night would be considered as a brilliant tactical move, akin to George Washington’s withdrawal from Brooklyn in 1776, under cover of darkness, at a point where failure would likely have meant the end of the American Revolution).
· Even if Russian flags eventually fly over the ruins of Bakhmut this would not make for a successful offensive. Dozens of Bakhmuts would have had to have been taken by now, including over cities such as Kramatorsk and Lyman, if Putin’s minimum objective of controlling of all the Donbas was to have been achieved. For detail about how little the Russian armed forces have progressed see this excellent analysis, with accompanying maps, by the New York Times.
· Vuhledar is significant because of Russian losses in armor and, more importantly Russian armored tactics, “On 6 February, 30 tanks and other heavy weapons were destroyed (during a Russian attack on Vuhledar) by Ukrainian artillery.
· Spetsnaz - Another example of the costs of the war to Russia, revealed by a reporter for the Washington Post after scouring the recently leaked documents, concerns Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, essentially special forces tasked with high-risk missions that rely on stealth as much as brute force. Of five Spetsnaz brigade returning from Ukraine all but one had suffered significant losses, with one reported to have ‘lost nearly the entire brigade with only 125 personnel active out of 900 deployed.’ (Spetsnaz likely made up most or all of the “Little Green Men” that were credited with Russia securing Crimea in February & March, 2014).
The Ukrainian Offensive –
· “It has been known for some time that Ukraine is assembling 12 combat brigades (each with 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers), of which nine are being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. According to the leaked documents, six were to be ready by 31 March and the rest by the end of this month. Readiness depended on deliveries. The equipment required for the NATO-supported brigades was more than 250 tanks and 350 mechanized vehicles. If this is correct, we are getting close to the start of the Ukrainian offensive.” (The question is how these brigades will be deployed, focusing on only one offensive or, as was the case last year, two offensives?)
· “Instead of frontal assaults, which normally end badly, this campaign might be more subtle, using opportunistic probes to find weak spots in the enemy lines, moving slowly by stealth, creeping up on unsuspecting defenders. They will want to avoid the grind of urban warfare favoured by the Russians, who do not care about the devastation caused, but will instead seek to cut off enemy units from their supplies, encircling them until their troops have little choice but to withdraw in a hurry or surrender. The more robust Russian redoubts may require a preparatory stage of artillery strikes that goes on for days, so that by the time Ukrainian troops move forward they are taking on an exhausted enemy caught among shattered fortifications. Or it might be something else again.” (I agree, and in fact Ukraine may have already begun what Freedman describes, with probing attacks on Russian lines along Line Zero in Zaporizhia, and strikes by HIMARS missiles and JDAM bombs against Russian installations further south toward the Sea of Azov, around Melitopol and the entrances to Crimea).
· “…..the first objective of the Ukrainian offensive is to demonstrate to their international backers that they are worth a continuing investment. That requires liberating a significant chunk of territory. The second, and ultimate objective, is to persuade the Russians to leave.”
· With respect to the word “persuade,” Freedman closes with the following observation about Putin and his commanders, “Putin and his commanders cannot afford to get many more of the big strategic decisions wrong. If they do so then they will face the prospect of not only futile stalemate but of humiliating withdrawals. I am less convinced than others that they can continue to brush off one setback after another simply because that is what autocratic police states can do, pretending to their people that nothing seriously has gone wrong. Insouciance and misinformation can take you only so far.” (So far, Russia’s “Special Military Operation,” has consisted of almost nothing but setbacks).
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” and the ”Latest Denys” complement Lawrence Freedman but with a focus on Bakhmut. They believe that Ukraine has essentially achieved its goal in Bakhmut by wiping out the Wagner Group. They, along with Lawrence Freedman, state that Wagner has been reduced to fighting inside the City, but complemented by regular Russian troops, and Ukrainian troops securing the flanks are up against regular Russian troops.
4/16/23 Sitrep (my comment in bold face)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon April 15 to 12:00 noon April 16, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday April 16
8:41 AM: South Korea and Germany agreed to work together on diplomatic and economic measures in support of Ukraine, - Yonhap.
8:40 AM: Half a million Israelis demonstrate against judicial reform proposed by Benjamin Netanyahu's government - The Times of Israel .
8:39 AM: The Hungarian government has banned grain imports from Ukraine. Such a restriction in the country will be valid until June 30, 2023.
· This was reported by the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture of Hungary.
Saturday April 15
11:43 PM: The Holy Fire is already on its way to Ukraine
· From Warsaw, it will be delivered to Lutsk to the Cathedral of the Holy Trinity of the OCU and only then transferred to all churches of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
10:14 PM: The leak of top-secret Pentagon records has not affected U.S. cooperation with its allies.
· This was stated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a trip to Vietnam, Sky News reports.
· "Based on the conversations I've had, I haven't heard anything that would affect our cooperation with allies and partners," Blinken said.
8:16 PM: The foreign ministers of South Korea and Germany met and discussed the situation in Ukraine, — Yonhap.
· "Foreign Minister Park Jin and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock held a strategic dialogue, where on the agenda was the issue of cooperation in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders," the newspaper writes.
06:21 PM: A Ukrainian SkyUp plane caught fire at Khartoum Airport, where a battle is taking place between 2 factions of the Sudanese military.
· This was announced by SkyUp flight attendant Alina Posokhova on her Instagram.
· According to her, an emergency radio buoy went off on one of the two airline aircraft, which led to a fire.
· "There are now 36 of our employees in Sudan. They are in a relatively safe place, there is a connection with them," SkyUp reports.
5:57 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.
· "I expressed gratitude for the condemnation of the horrible, inhuman execution of a Ukrainian soldier by Russian war criminals.
· I noted France's intention to further strengthen important support for Ukraine on the battlefield," the President of Ukraine wrote.
4:57 PM: The agriculture ministers of Ukraine and Poland will meet on Monday to sign an agreement on further Ukrainian grain exports, — PAP.
· It is expected that Robert Telus and Mykola Solsky will officially announce the settlement of the issue of reducing or temporarily suspend the supply of Ukrainian grain to Poland.
· This appears to be the opening salvo of what likely will be the most contentious issue relating to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Ukraine is Europe’s lowest cost producer of grain. Meanwhile, the European Commission pushed back against Poland’s decision, stating that “trade policy belongs to the exclusive competence of the EU and unilateral actions of states are unacceptable.”
3:16 PM Focus De: Leaked data in classified documents collected by US intelligence apparently confirms that Putin has cancer.
· According to a Pentagon report, Putin has cancer and is undergoing chemotherapy, and military generals have plans to "leave the war in Ukraine or deliberately lose it" while treating him.
· It is assumed that Secretary of the National Security Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov are behind the conspiracy.
1:46 PM: At the meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Japan, nuclear disarmament and the global use of alternative sources of electricity will be the main issues, — Nikkei.
· Also, during the three-day talks, G7 ministers will discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as threats from China and Iran, which maintain friendly relations with Russia.
1:16 pm local media: Sudan's rapid reaction force says it has taken control of Khartoum and Merewe airports and inflicted "heavy losses" on the country's regular army.
12:16 PM: "The United States must stop encouraging war and start talking about peace, the European Union must start talking about peace so that we can convince Putin and Zelensky that peace is for the benefit of the whole world," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is visiting China.
NATIONAL
Sunday April 16
10:01 AM: 130 people returned from Russian captivity to Ukraine.
· "Military, border guards, national guardsmen, sailors, employees of the SSST. Privates and sergeants who were captured in the Bakhmut, Soledar, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson directions. Our people are returning home," the President's Office said.
7:27 AM: The Holy Fire arrived at Ukraine.
· The first temple where it will be delivered will be the Cathedral of the Holy Trinity of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Lutsk. After that, the fire will be transferred to all temples of the OCU.
8:22 AM: We celebrate Easter today with unshakable faith in our victory - Volodymyr Zelenskyy's greetings.
· "We have come a long way. Ahead is perhaps the hardest of the peaks. We will overcome it. And together we will meet our dawn when the sun rises over our whole country. This is a blue and yellow flag. He will certainly rise throughout our God-given land, in all territories temporarily occupied by devils. The sun will shine in the south, the sun will shine in the east, the sun will shine in the Crimea. The orange sun is in a peaceful blue sky, and this is the light of justice. Christ is Risen!" - President of Ukraine.
7:06 AM General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: During the day, the Russians inflicted 28 air and 6 missile strikes, carried out 38 MLRS attacks on the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements.
· Russians continue to focus their main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariinsky directions. Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities. During the day, in these sectors of the front, Ukrainian soldiers repelled more than 60 attacks of the Russian Federation.
Saturday April 15
6:51 PM Update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on April 15:
· "During the day, the enemy inflicted 19 air and 4 missile strikes.
· The enemy carried out more than 15 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements.
· Bakhmut and Marinka remain in the epicenter of hostilities. During the day, in these sectors of the front, our defenders repulsed 40 enemy attacks."
· "To replenish losses in manpower, the Russian Federation is conducting a campaign to support mobilization.
· To popularize military service, all available methods are used. The Russian leadership promises its citizens a high salary and social package.
· In addition to the media, propagandists use propaganda leaflets of appropriate content in public places. Recently, there has been an intensification of campaigning in Voronezh."
· "Aviation of the Defense Forces during the day inflicted 5 strikes on areas of concentration of the occupiers.
· Missile troops and artillery units hit 3 areas of concentration of manpower, as well as an area of concentration of artillery, a radar station, an anti-aircraft missile system and an ammunition depot."
4:28 PM: Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved the decision of the National Security Council on new sanctions against Russia.
· According to Decree No. 228/2023, sanctions are applied to 82 sports-related figures. Among them are Olympic champions.
· At the same time, Decree No. 227/2023 approves sanctions against 351 individuals and 241 legal entities. Among the legal entities are limited liability companies "Gazpromneft-Digital Solutions", "RT-Invest Transport Systems" and "Innotech Company Group", joint-stock companies "X-Holding" and "Softline Trade".
3:59 PM: Minister of Education Oxen Lisovy addressed the public and called for discussion on the number of subjects children study in schools today.
· According to him, there are various arguments for and against reducing the number of items: "Two years of COVID and a year of a full-scale invasion. The load on the child is very high: both psychological and mental", this is about a large number of subjects, and about remote learning, and about additional classes to make up for the lost."
12:45 PM: American Patriot air defense systems will appear in Ukraine after Easter, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said during a telethon.
· Yuriy Ihnat noted that everyone would immediately know about it as soon as the first Russian plane was shot down.
Mordor - russia
Saturday April 15
9:45 PM: Russian spies recruit representatives of the Bundeswehr and German politicians through Tinder.
· It is reported by Welt with reference to the statement of the Military Counterintelligence Service of Germany.
· It is noted that on dates, girls are especially interested in data on Germany and the war in Ukraine.
7:47 PM: Russia may issue electronic summonses to residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
· This was stated by the mayor of the temporarily occupied Melitopol Ivan Fedorov.
· According to him, the real threat of being mobilized prevails for those who have taken Russian passports.
KHARKIV
Saturday April 15
05:26 PM: Ukrainian troops in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction destroyed another newest Russian tank, the T-90 Proryv.
· This was stated by the speaker of the Eastern group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevatyi.
· In addition to the tank, according to Cherevaty, Russian BMP-1s, which were removed from service, as well as an artillery tractor, were destroyed.
DONETSK
Sunday April 16
11:42 AM Donetsk RMA: Vuhledar, Novoukrainka and Bogoyavlenka were under fire.
· Three times Kurakhovo came under artillery fire. 3 people were wounded in Kostiantynivka. In the city, 2 high-rise buildings, a dormitory, a pharmacy, a shop and the territory of the enterprise were damaged. A house in Predtechin was also damaged in the community. It was loud in Chasovoyarsk and Soledar communities.
· An apartment building in Torske was destroyed and a house in Zarichne of the Liman community was damaged.
9:18 AM: According to the National Police, 4 more people may be under the rubble in Sloviansk.
· Two people were rescued, the bodies of six people were lifted from under the rubble of the destroyed five-story building.
· In total, as a result of a massive Russian strike, 11 people were killed and 22 were injured
12:28 AM: 15 Russian soldiers captured near Marinka in Donetsk region, says commander of Tavria grouping of forces.
· Meanwhile, a video appeared on the Internet with the capture of Russians.
12:01 AM Donetsk RMA: Two people rescued, six bodies lifted from the rubble of a five-story building destroyed by Russians in Sloviansk.
· As of 23 o'clock, rescuers of the SES have already dismantled 96 tons of building structures.
· Currently, 30 personnel of the State Emergency Service in Donetsk region and 7 units of equipment are involved in the work.
Saturday April 15
2:46 PM: The bodies of two more victims were recovered from the rubble of a five-story building in Sloviansk, the SES reported.
· The death toll as a result of yesterday's shelling of the city increased to 11 people, 21 people were injured.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday April 16
11:17 AM Zaporizhia RMA: In Komyshuvas, a warehouse with fuel briquettes was damaged. Another missile hit near a local church. The blast wave damaged buildings and residential buildings around. Two residents were injured: a man was treated on the spot, and a woman was hospitalized.
· In Zaporizhzhia, no one was injured at night. The Russians fired two missiles at a green zone in one of the districts of the city: parked cars, communications and facilities were damaged. Two more missiles hit an open area near a hotel and entertainment complex, residential buildings nearby also received minor damage.
6:01 AM Zaporizhia RMA: The Russians carried out a massive attack on the Zaporizhzhia region, a church was damaged.
· In particular, in Komyshuvas, a local church was damaged by shelling, which, fortunately, did not hold a service. Destruction was also recorded in a building nearby.
· In the regional center, the enemy targeted the green zone. The consequences of damage from the blast wave are currently being established.
· Previously, without casualties," Kukhta said.
2:56 AM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Zaporizhzhia.
KHERSON
Sunday April 16
9:37 AM Kherson RMA: Russians shelled peaceful settlements of Kherson region 70 times.
· The residential areas of Kherson were attacked by the Russian army 5 times. They hit the territory of the school and the state institution. Two people were killed, two more people were injured.
Saturday April 15
9:19 PM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Beryslav district of Kherson region.
7:39 PM Social Networks: Repeated explosions heard in Kherson.
5:08 PM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
3:30 PM: Two women were killed in today's shelling of Kherson, Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak said.
· They received mine-blast injuries incompatible with life.
2:26 PM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Kherson.
MYKOLAIV
Saturday April 15
8:28 AM Mykolaiv RMA: Tonight, Snihurivska hromada was shelled by S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. In one of the community's settlements, two teenagers, born in 2005, were killed as a result of shelling. Residential buildings, an educational institution and a private enterprise were damaged
· In the town of Snihurivka, as a result of today's night shelling, two educational institutions, a hospital, a cultural center and residential buildings were damaged. According to preliminary information, no casualties.
06:29 AM: Shelling recorded near Snihurivka, Mykolaiv region, says Ivan Kukhta, head of the Snihurivka city military administration.
· "About a dozen explosions were heard. While we are figuring out the details, official information will be later.
3:07 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in the Mykolaiv region.
SUMY
Sunday April 16
12:38 AM: Around 11:40 PM, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on a municipal facility in the Shostka district of Sumy region.
· According to preliminary information, one person was injured. This was reported in OK "North".
Saturday April 15
10:47 PM Social Networks: Explosions heard in Shostka district of Sumy region.
VINNYTSIA
Saturday April 15
11:18 PM: In Vinnytsia, on Independence Square, 18 huge Easter eggs were installed. For the city, this has become a tradition started 6 years ago.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka