Bob Homans April 12

20220412

Ukraine – 4/12 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 12, 2022

Ukrainians & Scots Irish?

My college class has a weekly Zoom call.   On a couple of occasions, I have been asked to share my thoughts about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, particularly, the effective defense being put up by Ukrainians, now including Ukrainian counterattacks.  The question was raised, “What is it within the Ukrainian character, that makes them such effective fighters?”   One of my Classmates asked me if there are similarities between Ukrainians and the Scots Irish living in the United States, primarily in the State of Texas, and the Appalachian areas of the States of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but also in parts of the States of Oregon, Washington and Northern California, where they moved from Appalachia, primarily to cut timber.    James Webb, former U.S. Navy Secretary, wrote a book about the Scots Irish, called “Born Fighting.”

The Scotts Irish came to America in the 18th and 19th Centuries, from what is now Northern Ireland.  Prior to Northern Ireland, their ancestors came from Scotland in the 17th Century.   They settled in areas not already settled by English or Germans, first in Western Pennsylvania, and later to the south.  

If a region’s geography has an influence on the qualities of the people who live in that region, my Classmate may be onto something.  If one would be able to take the Carpathian Mountains in Western Ukraine, and transpose them onto West Virginia, or Kentucky, to take only 2 examples, they would be physically indistinguishable.  After WW-II, Ukrainian partisans operating primarily in the Carpathians fought the Soviet Army well into the 1950’s, with no help from the outside.

Scots Irish and Ukrainians also share other traits, including strong family bonds, music primarily folk music, art, especially embroidery, and leadership.   Twenty U.S. Presidents, including Barack Obama, have Scotts Irish ancestry.   Many of America’s greatest generals have Scotts Irish ancestry, Andrew Jackson, Stonewall Jackson, and George Patton among them.

The success of Euromaidan was in part a success of leadership, and not in the top-down sense.   The success came from organization at a basic level, including construction of barriers, food preparation and distribution, first aid, transportation, and defense including preparing Molotov cocktails and building catapults that hurled bricks and paving stones at Interior Ministry Police.   No one person, or a committee, was responsible.   We’re seeing this same level of organization at play during this war.

The “Fighting Judge”

This article, from the “New Yorker” Magazine, tells the story of Judge Ivan Mishchenko who, when not presiding in a courtroom, is part of a Ukrainian unit that uses store-bought drones to track the locations of Russian soldiers, and sends their location to the Ukrainian Army.   Judge Mishchenko is an example of Ukrainians who are leaving their professions behind, to go and fight.

I predict, that when this war is over Judge Mishchenko will be in the vanguard of those in the Ukrainian Judiciary, who will demand that Ukraine’s corrupt judicial system be cleaned up.   I seriously doubt that Ukrainians like Judge Mishchenko, who are risking their lives for the survival of their Country, are going to accept going back to the judicial status-quo-ante.

4/12 Sitrep (Comments of mine are in Bold Face)

More on Leadership - One of the most common Ukrainian sayings, “Two Ukrainians equals three Hetmans”, captures the essence of one stereotype about Ukrainians – that they are freedom loving and anarchic. 

A Hetman was the elected battle leader of a Cossack army.  Between the 16th to 19th centuries Hetmans were appointed by Poland and Russia on occupied Ukrainian territories.  Whether elected or appointed, the saying captures the idea of the difficulties encountered in trying to establish a legitimate authority in Ukraine. 

The problem with this stereotype is, as with all stereotypes, its misleading.  In this war, during the Maidan, and Orange Revolution, self-discipline, sacrifice and team playing are better characterizations of the average Ukrainian. 

I rarely feel comfortable with International media coverage of Ukraine, before today and expect after, but I believe the Financial Times has captured the tension between that Ukrainian stereotype and the current reality with brilliant video journalism in the following piece: https://www.ft.com/video/4adad9c9-151b-4448-8547-908b49d74fde.

The video analyses why Ukraine is beating Russia on the electronic information front.  The drivers of victory are two volunteer groups ShadowBreak International and Discord.gg/urw Ukrainian Radio Watchers.  At their own expense and on their own time these volunteer organizations capture, verify and decode Russian electronic communications.  These recordings and transcripts, are also translated into English, go directly to the Ukrainian military and intelligence service.  Both state organizations have been able to target, intercept and plan on this basis. 

Russian Communication Failures - The FT video also explains why volunteers have successfully broken Russian military communication and why Russia lacks secure and encoded battlefield communication.  Russia is largely relying on mobile phones in Ukraine.  Ukraine’s defense forces know in real time what the Russians are doing or planning to do, whereas the Russians must rely on informants.

What is surprising about the failures of Russian secure communications is that Russia had the same problem during the 2008 Georgia invasion.   There, almost 14 years ago, Russia also relied on mobile phones and other forms of un-encrypted communications.   I don’t see the addition of a new Russian commanding general with a reputation for brutality is going to solve this problem.  He’ll still need accurate and secure communications to make battlefield decisions, something that has been consistently absent from Russian command & control.

Belarus, a Thorn in Russia’s Side - Russia’s bluff that it has an advanced military machine is further undercut by a Belarus volunteer organization, Belaryski Haiyun, Беларускі Гаюн.  This volunteer organization, based on Belarus civilians throughout Belarus and exiles in Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, reports Russian troop, plane and rocket movements throughout Belarus in real time as well on its Telegram channel.  Its intelligence supports Ukraine’s war effort as well.

This is not to infer that Ukraine’s intelligence system lacks its own means, or that information from western intelligence is lacking.  However, taken in total, Ukrainian state intelligence, Western state intelligence and armies of volunteer intelligence providers, Ukraine has the electronic advantage over Russia.  It uses this resource well as evidenced from its victories on military and public opinion fronts.

Japan approved sanctions against Russian companies, banks and 398 Russian citizens.

President Putin said after his meeting with the Austrian chancellor that he hoped the war would end soon.  The Austrian chancellor said the discussions were frank, tough and brutal.

Ukraine put forward a proposal to its allies that they implement Iranian type sanctions on Russian energy resource sale.  If accepted Russia could sell as many energy resources as it wishes but sales proceeds would go to an account under international control.

Europol, the European police force, announced it began an active search for Russian assets in the EU that are subject to sanctions.

Bulgaria has ended an intelligence sharing agreement with Russia.

France expelled another six Russian diplomats for spying.

A Russian cyclist who raised his hand in a Nazi salute on the victory podium two days ago has been let go by the Swiss cycling team Ward Racing.

Slovakia may transfer its Mig 29s to Ukraine based on finding replacements in talks with its allies. 

Hungary has found a way around EU sanctions on paying Gazprom in roubles.  Hungary opened a Euro account in Gazprom Bank, and Euros payments to that account will be converted to roubles.

EU’s foreign minister said it is mistaken to assume that Bulgaria and Hungary are not supporting arming Ukraine.  Their governments are making payments to the EU which transfers military equipment from other governments to Ukraine.

Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s long term policy advisor on the Donbas, has been arrested according to an exiled member of the Russian Duma.

Belarus and Polish border patrols blamed one another for violations including unprovoked gun attacks.

Western journalists say that western intelligence agencies currently view that Russia lost a third of its attacking forces whereas in early April they were estimating Russian losses at 15 to 20 percent.

In the first quarter of 2022 capital flight from Russia was $64,2 billion in comparison to $17,5 billion in same period last year.

All Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine have raised their threat level to 2 out of 3.

Croatia expelled 24 Russian diplomats.

Russian state railways defaulted on its external debt.

Putin’s press secretary said Finland’s and Sweden’s potential NATO membership will not improve their security.

NATIONAL

Forbes estimates that Ukrainian forces have turned Russia’s military equipment into 85,000 tons of scrap metal:

•        Approximately 75 000 tons of steel and stainless steel

•        2 500 tons of aluminum

•        1 000 tons of copper

•        Approximately 360 tons of titanium and manganese

•        10 kg of platinum, 18 kg of gold, and 1,2 tons of silver

Communication between a mother and a Russian soldier in Crimea indicated that the soldier refuses to go and fight in Ukraine and his fellow soldiers are also refusing

Russian soldiers are using Ukrainian children to carry messages between units according to Ukrainian forces.

3.5 million Ukrainian children returned to school this week.

Ukraine’s direct economic losses over the last week were 12,2 billion USD, and from the start of the war equal 80,4 billion USD.  Total losses, including infrastructure range from 564 to 600 billion USD.

Approximately 300,000 sq kilometers of Ukraine will need to be demined after the war.  That is approximately 46 percent of all Ukrainian territory.

The commander of Russian forces from occupied Donbas said that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol should be taken out with chemical weapons.  Six hours after making this statement the leader of Ukraine’s National Guard which is defending Mariupol reported a chemical weapons attack.  In the report he confirmed that three guardsmen were having respiratory problems.  Later the Guard issued a statement that the attack may have been phosphorus bomb.  There is an ongoing investigation to confirm or deny a chemical weapons attack.

The Pentagon and British Foreign Service commented that if a chemical weapons attack is confirmed they will take further measures against Russia.

Ukraine started the process of nationalizing ten Russian vessels in its ports.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense daily bulletin:

•        Russia is organizing ground and air strike groups near Ukraine’s borders inside Russia

•        Russia is basing its occupational forces in Ukraine in farm buildings, near power stations, and near apartments to shield them from Ukrainian attack

•        Russia continues to partially block Kharkiv and there are active battles near Izium

•        Front lines in Donbas are static

•        Russia is bringing additional antiair defense systems into Donbas

•        Russian forces are building defensive fortifications in Kherson Oblast

•        Rocket and cruise missile attacks remain possible in all of Ukraine

•        Ukrainian forces repelled seven major ground attacks in Donbas

Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman estimates that Russian forces are holding in captivity approximately 1700 civilian and military individuals.

Journalists and volunteers note an increasing number of cars and trucks on Belarus roads without license plated but marked with a Z or V.  Both letters symbolize Russian occupational forces in Ukraine.  There a many reports of stolen vehicles in Ukraine.

Ukraine is starting construction of new housing for internally displaced persons that will be transferred to the military after the war.

KHARKIV

Eight killed, including a child in Russian shelling of civilians in Kharkiv Oblast.

The mayor of Kharkiv says that the intensity of shelling is increasing.

Kharkiv is now heavily mined, and the authorities ask citizens not to pick up unidentified objects and to report any objects they see.

DONBAS

Washington Post and CNN report based on Pentagon sources that Russia lacks the means to undertake a major offensive in Donbas and will likely throw weakened units against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s military administration of Donbas reports that more than half of civilians have been evacuated.

Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol report they may be out of munitions by tomorrow.

Another 12 apartment building in Rubizhno and 7 in Lysychansk have been damaged.  One civilian died in Lysychansk.

NORTHERN UKRAINE

Everyday more bodies are being pulled from destroyed buildings located in cities around Kyiv.  Today, in Borodanka another seven were found.  The situation in these cities remains dangerous, as Russians left mines in homes, on the streets and in bodies.

Ukrainian police found a car on a rural road, with two women and three children destroyed by gun fire.  The killing appears to have taken place three weeks ago.

Ukraine has identified the names and military units of soldiers that occupied cities around Kyiv.

According to pensioners living in villages in Chernihiv Russian soldiers that searched their homes had never seen running water and flush toilets in village houses.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian soldiers dressed as civilians tried to storm a Ukrainian checkpoint in Mykolaiv Oblast and were liquidated.

In Kherson Russian soldiers started destroying Ukrainian monuments and public statutes.

Russia keeps trying recruit soldiers in Zaporizhia.

There is a recent report, received a couple of hours ago, that Russians are setting up Grad Missile launching sites very near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).   They have also been seen digging trenches near the town of Enerhodar, the satellite town for the NPP.  This is a very dangerous variation of what the Russians and Donbas Separatists have done for the last 8 years in occupied Donbas, set up fire bases near apartment buildings, and then blame Ukrainians for targeting civilians.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis