Bob Homans April 10

20220411

Ukraine – 4/10 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
April 10, 2022

Another Dacha Story

Sent by a friend whose dacha is in a village approximately 40km. west of Kyiv, along the Kyiv-Chop Highway (across from the Golfstream golf course, for those familiar).   This was an area occupied by Russian forces.   Here is what he said – “This is my dacha now (I am not including photos) -- after shelling and looting. I was surprised that it is actually standing, and that the Russians failed to loot everything. Looks like they were spooked when the Ukrainians hit the area with "Grad" projectiles (thus the destroyed windows). They were fleeing so hastily that they had left their (already packed) loot and even a handgun dropped in the forest. I am heading there now to try to save the house from rainfall.”

“Despite my advice, the housekeeper left the safes closed. However, this might have delayed our "visitors". I am sure they were disappointed when, after spending hours trying to crack them, they found them totally empty.”

From Poland

Another friend, names withheld, who is now in Warsaw waiting to be reunited with his “significant other’ who is still in Kyiv caring for her bedridden mother – “Just a quick Sunday night hello from Poland.  We're still getting settled into Warsaw, but progress is being made. We now have a flat and ____ has successfully completed her run through the refugee gauntlet.  She has access to services and can stay freely for quite awhile (some say up to 18 months, while others tell us 3 years).” 

“I accompanied her, but nobody knew how to classify a US Citizen so I'm still under the 90/180 rule.  I explained how Toma was still in Kyiv nursing her mother while ____ and I would set up a "home base" in Warsaw and do what we can to help Ukraine and Ukrainians on both side of the border while monitoring the situation in Kyiv.  That carried no weight.  While with Nastya during the process, I was asked such things as "Why don't you just go to the USA?" and (to my surprise) "Where is your visa?" Showing authorities my "Temporary Residence Permit" for Ukraine meant nothing.  Anyway, a frustrating wrestling match on that front.”

“____'s school based in Kyiv (KROK) is now having regular on-line sessions - Maybe the only good thing that resulted in COVID is that many Ukrainian schools and universities have had 2-years of on-the-job training in delivering distance learning. The area in Warsaw where we've rented an apartment in is quite nice and "user friendly" - safe, many good restaurants, metro and bus station within 5-minute walk.  Even so, I'm in the process of buying a 4-wheel drive to make runs to and from the border to assist some NGOs and refugees - Maybe cross the border and even into Kyiv depending on dangers, bureaucracy, and availability of fuel and other "headaches" (The multitude of military, local militia, and other defense unit check points and resulting traffic jams TO KYIV). “

Trains may become an option to/from Warsaw-Kyiv, but the erratic scheduling, delays, and boarding procedures still create quite large challenges.  I'll be looking into the viability of this next week as I'd love to get ____ here for Orthodox Easter (April 24).  Babushka has actually improved to the point where ____ may be willing to be away for a week to 10 days if she can get a relative, neighbor or nurse to move into the flat.  (____ fiancé ____ took a bus from Lutsk and is now in Warsaw.  Like ___ will do if she comes to Poland, she intends to return to Ukraine after a short stay here.)

Russian Army in Trouble

This assessment, from the Institute for the Study of War, concludes that the Russian Army operating in Ukraine is facing serious near-term obstacles to further offensive operations, especially in Eastern Ukraine.   The overall conclusion is “The Russian  military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that it does not already hold, after it completes the seizure of Mariupol (Note – completing the seizure of Mariupol becomes less and less likely with each passing day).  There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces ability to do so, and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively, despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure.”

“We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months (our underlining).  Russia will continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstructed units piecemeal into offensive operations (in Donbas) that make limited gains at great cost.   The Russians will likely make gains nevertheless and may either trap and wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (portions that the Russians don’t already control), but it is at least equally likely that these  Russian  offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done. (our underlining)”

The authors’ definition of “combat power” includes more than simply loss of personnel.  It also  includes substantial losses in equipment, leading to significant reductions in fighting capacity.

Other important points in this assessment include (our comments in normal typeface):

·       “The dozens of Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that retreated from around Kyiv likely possess combat power that is a fraction of what the numbers of units or total numbers of personnel with those units would suggest.”  In discussing the re-constituting of Russian forces and their move to Eastern Ukraine, as we suggested yesterday the pundits seem to imply that these units are being transferred at full strength.  This assessment suggests otherwise.

·       “Reconstituting these units to restore any notable fraction of their nominal power would take months.”   Much of this time would involve training new conscripts that are only joining the Russian Army this month and replacing lost and damaged equipment.

·       “The Russian armed forces likely have few or no full-strength units in reserve to deploy to fight in Ukraine because of a flawed mobilization scheme that cannot be fixed during the course of a short war.

According to the assessment, key takeaways include:

·        “Russia is unlikely to be able to mass combat power for the fight in eastern Ukraine proportionate to the number of troops and battalion tactical groups it sends there.”

·        “The Russian military continues to suffer from devastating morale, recruitment, and retention problems that seriously undermines its ability to fight effectively.”

·        “The outcome of forthcoming Russian operations in eastern Ukraine remains very much in question.”

The assessment recommends the following developments to watch:

·        “Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the coming days southeast from Izyum (southeast of Kharkiv), possibly diverting first to the southwest to avoid Ukrainian defensive positions (part of the ring around occupied Donbas that has existed since 2015, where Russia has been unable to achieve a breakthrough), in an attempt to reach Slovyansk.”  To Ukrainians, Slovyansk has psychological significance, as it was the first city taken over by Russian-backed separatists in the Spring of 2014, and it was recaptured by a reconstituted Ukrainian Army in early July 2014.

·        Russian forces will continue efforts to complete the seizure of the remaining areas of Mariupol City that Ukrainian forces hold.

• Russian forces may conduct attacks to seize Rubizhne, Popasna, and Severodonetsk in the coming days, although they may wait for reinforcements and for Russian troops to complete the encirclement of this area along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve road.   Debaltseve also has psychological significance for Ukraine.  It was around Debaltseve where the Ukrainian Army was defeated by the separatists with backing from regular Russian troops, leading to the signing of the infamous “Minsk II” Agreement.

Our Assessment –

·       The apparent inability of the Russian Army to launch an attack in Eastern Ukraine with anything close to full strength represents a huge opportunity for Ukraine to deal a decisive blow against Russia, including pushing Russia back to the Donbas Line of Contact, lifting the siege of Mariupol, and pushing Russia out of the southern cities, including Melitopol, Berdyansk and Khearson, BUT ONLY IF UKRAINE’S WESTERN PARTNERS STEP FORWARD WITH THE EQUIPMENT THAT UKRAINE REQUIRES TO FINISH THE JOB!!!

·       There is a window of opportunity of 3-4 months, before Russia is able to return to full strength.

·       There is the possibility of a “Gotterdammerung Scenario,” where Russia uses weapons of mass destruction, to try to accomplish what their Army failed to accomplish.

Many Ukrainians believe that “finishing the job” is something that the West doesn’t want to see Ukraine accomplish.  Instead, many Ukrainians believe that the West would rather see a protracted conflict that leaves the current Russian leadership in power – better to keep the Russian leadership you know, as opposed to one you don’t know.

4/10 Sitrep

European Union limited the import of Russian fertilizers

Estonia started cancelling visas of persons who publicly use the letters "Z" and "V", as well as St. George's ribbons — each visa revocation is decided on an individual basis.  As of April 8, several violators got their visas cancelled.

Germany started strengthening its underground gas storage facilities, as well as creating crisis reserves for the case of war.

Lithuania plans 2 billion euro weapons purchases from the United States and Germany.

Hungary would violate EU sanctions if it pays for Russian energy in rubles - President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

On Saturday, demonstrations against the war and atrocities took place in London, New York, and Prague.

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace says his country will send armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Montenegro, which has received a significant amount of Russian investment, said it will impose sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

The Spokesman for Hungary’s prime minister said that Orban condemns the invasion of Ukraine

About a quarter of the Russian troops used in the invasion of Ukraine are "virtually incapacitated", says CNN, citing a European official. On the eve of the invasion, Russia deployed about 120 tactical batallion groups around Ukraine, but within six weeks of the war, about 29 were out of service.

On Monday, European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood will hand Georgia and Moldova a questionnaire, which is a necessary step to grant the status of an EU candidate.

Germany promises to prosecute the use of the symbol Z at pro-Russian demonstrations. 

The European Investment Bank will provide 4 billion euros to EU member states accepting Ukrainian refugees.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the global fundraising campaign "Stand Up for Ukraine" managed to raise 9.1 billion euros.

British Prime Minister offered Ukraine 120 armored vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems during yesterday’s visit to Kyiv. 

The Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin said that the country is ready for new sanctions against Russia. She also called on all Western companies to stop working in Russia. “More will come! We will continue providing support. And once the bombs have stopped falling, we will help the people of Ukraine rebuild their country," she said.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi will visit Algeria to sign an agreement to increase gas imports.  Italy currently receives about 40% of its gas imports from Russia, is trying to diversify energy supplies.

Last summer, in 2021, Western intelligence saw that a small group of high-ranking Russian officials were planning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Canada is organizing charter flights to take in Ukrainian refugees.  The country is further relaxing rules for accepting refugees.

Mexico’s president stated that Mexico is against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  There is a significant number of Ukrainians presenting themselves for refugee status, at the US Border at San Ysidro, the main crossing point for people going to San Diego, California, and points north.

NATIONAL

Ukraine’s prosecutor general registered 5,629 war crimes, implicated 501 civil and military officials in these crimes, 2,651 crimes treason and national security offenses and reported that 177 children have been killed and another 336 wounded.

Ukraine has candidate status for EU membership candidate by June 2022.

Italy plans to reopen its embassy in Kyiv immediately after Easter, April 22.  "We were the last to leave Kyiv, and we will be one of the first to return," said Foreign Minister Luigi Di Mayo

The National Bank of Ukraine froze the official dollar exchange rate at UAH 29.25 until the end of martial law.

Social media star, cat Stepan from Kharkiv, was nominated for the most prestigious World Influencers and Bloggers Award in Cannes.  The cat’s story of his evacuation from Kharkiv has captured the attention of pet lovers the world over. 

Yesterday Ukraine’s president met with the Federal Chancellor of Austria Karl.  The Austrian promised to support further sanctions against Russia.

Ukrainian paratroopers shot down a Russian attack helicopter yesterday with a Ukrainian made anti-tank - Stugna.

Japan banned the import of Russian coal and expeled five Russian diplomats yesterday.

EU Ambassador to Ukraine returned to Kyiv six weeks after the start of the war, the EU Delegation resumes work in the capital of Ukraine.

Facial recognition and artificial intelligence technologies allow identifying Russian occupiers caught on camera – Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov. According to Fedorov, many (https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/9/7338432/) killers who terrorized civilians in Bucha and Irpen have already been found.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense bulletin:

·        the enemy continues to partially block Kharkiv, shelling the city using aerial bombs, artillery systems and mortars.  The occupiers are moving additional units to the city of Izyum.

·        The enemy carries out assault operations in Mariupol and conducts airstrikes to capture the central part of the city.

·        In Mykolaiv the enemy continues to try unsuccessfully to take back territory.

·        Russian occupiers continued artillery fire at Novovorontsovka, Maryanske, Novohryhorivka and Shevchenkove Donetsk Oblast.

·        The invaders deployed military hospitals and repair shops for military equipment in the temporarily occupied territories of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. There is a shortage of qualified medical staff in the occupiers' hospitals.  In addition, the enemy has problems with medical supplies.

·        Personnel at Russian repair shops are forced to work around the clock in the absence of a stable supply of spare parts and units.

·        Russia sent repair crews to carry railways in the temporarily occupied Kharkiv regions.

·        In Melitopol county of Zaporizhzhia, Russian invaders continue searching civilian homes checking documents, availability of vehicles, and food stocks.  Civilians are being interrogated.

·        In Nova Kakhovka, the occupiers are preparing campaign materials for the so-called "referendum on the establishment of the People's Republic of Kherson."

·        In Luhansk oblast, Russian-occupation administrations are intensifying efforts to forcibly mobilize the population

·        Ukrainian forces repulsed 8 enemy attacks, destroyed 4 tanks, 8 armored vehicles and 7 regular vehicles in Donbas.

·        Over the last twenty four hours Ukraine’s air defenses hit 13 air targets: 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 5 UAVs and 4 cruise missiles.

·        Two enemy Battalion Tactical Groups were moved from the Bilhorod region to the Shevchenkiv district of Kharkiv Oblast.

·        Artillery shelling of Rubizhne, Popasna, Novobakhmutivka, Vuhledar, Novoselivka Druha, Novotoshkivs'k, Stepne and Mar’inka, Donetsk Oblast is ongoing. 

·        Thousands of unexploded munitions remain after Russian retreats.  As they retreat, the fascists chaotically mine everything they can: corpses of people they have killed, children's toys, buildings, kindergartens, and even their abandoned equipment.

Ukraine intends to purchase 35 German Marder infantry fighting vehicles directly from the manufacturer

According to the Oryx portal, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have seized more than 1,000 units of Russian heavy military equipment and cars since the beginning of the war.

The third exchange of prisoners took place between Ukraine and Russia - 26 Ukrainians are returning home, including 12 military and 14 civilians

The Ukrainian government has approved a full trade embargo against Russia

All of the occupiers who were based in the Red forest of the Chornobyl exclusion zone for almost 30 days are expected to suffer from radiation sickness in various stages - says Petro Kotin.  Abnormally high readings of background radiation were observed in the place where the Russians were digging

Estonia is sending Ukraine more than 10 tons of aid needed to repair power grids damaged by fighting.

The Lithuanian film Direstor Mantasa Kverdaravichiusa was killed in Russian custody yesterday.

The German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann will supply Ukraine with 100 self-propelled howitzers, Panzerhaubitze 2000.

NORTHERN UKRAINE

Demining of territories and roads continues in Kyiv region; residents of the capital will hear explosions for a long time yet

The bodies of dead are discovered by rescuers in a church in Chernihiv region, where the occupiers set up their headquarters According to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, they are local citizens who were shot by Russian military.

For two weeks, the Russian artillery had been eradicating the village of Novoselivka, not a single undestroyed house left.

Laying of water pipes from Kyiv to Irpin has started.  The Red Cross has allocated 20 million hryvnias for this.  In addition, the city is completing the construction of a river crossing, and another group of volunteers today went to clean the city.

KHARKIV

 – I will use separate maps for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts until the situation there is less intense.

The Ukrainian military destroyed an enemy column heading towards the city of Izyum in Kharkiv region.  Ukrainian forces counterattacked Russia’s Battalion Tactical Group in Kypianske county of Kharkiv Oblast with long range artillery fire.

Russian missiles hit a residential area of Kharkiv, rescuers evacuated 12 people, information about the victims is to be confirmed.

Parachute bomb

The mayor of Kharkiv Igor Terekhov reported that the Russian occupiers dropped parachute bombs on the city and he is asking people not to approach such bombs.

Satellite images show an eight-mile-long Russian military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast on April 8.

DONBAS

Gunners of the Armed Forces destroyed a second Russian munitions warehouse in Donbas

In the Luhansk region, border guards repelled an enemy attack and took a prisoner — this was the fourth attempt of the Russian invaders to attack this position

Ukraine’s presidential office expects that the Far East Russian 5th army consisting of ten Battalion Tactical Groups will arrive next week to strengthen Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

Russian artillery set on fire an apartment building and gas station in Lysychansk.  Civilian authorities have not been able to extinguish the blaze because of ongoing shelling.

In Luhansk region, the enemy attacked the positions of border guards with kamikaze drones. One drone was destroyed, and the other attacked was misguided.

In Severodonetsk Russian troops fired on a school and two high-rise buildings. Two elderly people were rescued. In one of the entrances, the apartments from the first to the fifth floor burned down.

As a result of shelling  a residential building in Rubizhne by Russians, four people were injured, in Severodonetsk the body of a dead woman was found.

Near Rubizhne, Luhansk oblast, Russian troops once again hit a storage tank with nitric acid.  Fumes from the explosion of a 4 ton-tank of nitric acid have spread towards the positions of the Russian military near Kudriashivka and Varvarivka, there is no threat to civilians.  Even the wind is on our side.

In Mariupol, the occupiers are collecting dead bodies in an underground passage in the Sadkiv district on the outskirts of the city.  There is a nearby crematorium.

Ramzan Kadyrov released a video of Chechen forces interrogating a Ukrainian POW in Mariupol.  The Chechens claim he is Ukrainian military intelligence.  The POW was recognized by mental health workers in Mariupol and the Chechens tattooed his arm with a bat.  The bat is the symbol of Russian military intelligence.  The owl is the symbol of Ukrainian military intelligence.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces fired 7 rockets at Mykolaiv Oblast in the last twenty-four hours.  There are no reported casualties. 

Vitaliy Kim, Head of the Mykolayiv Regional Military Administration, has said that he doesn't see any intentions of occupiers to capture Mykolayiv now.

Russian troops released buses of a humanitarian convoy, which they held for three days in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region

Villagers in Zaporizhia said that Russian forces are preparing to forcibly deport women and children from rural areas.

REST OF UKRAINE

Rocket attacks hit the city of Dnipro and Pavlohrad in the Oblast.  There was one civilian injured.  In Dnipro civilian infrastructure suffered and in Pavlohrad farm equipment was damaged.

In the Rivne region since the beginning of the war, 233 vehicles were confiscated from drunk drivers and handed over to the Armed Forces.

A monument to the russian poet and writer Olexander Pushkin was dismantled in Ternopil.  "Everything Russian needs to be dismantled. Including a monument to the russian writer"

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis