Bob Homans 20220510

20220511

Ukraine – 5/10 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 10, 2022

A Well-Deserved Pulitzer for Ukrainian Journalists

The Pulitzer Prize, given for excellence in journalism, literature, and poetry, is administered by Columbia University.   Yesterday, the Pulitzer Committee announced a special award to Ukrainian journalists, The Pulitzer Prize Board awarded Ukrainian journalists a special citation for what it described as "their courage, endurance, and commitment to truthful reporting during Vladimir Putin's ruthless invasion of their country and his propaganda war in Russia."

"Despite bombardment, abductions, occupation, and even deaths in their ranks, they have persisted in their effort to provide an accurate picture of a terrible reality, doing honor to Ukraine and to journalists around the world," the announcement reads.

In addition to their coverage of the war, it would’ve been entirely appropriate to award an entire generation of Ukrainian journalists for their coverage of Ukraine’s journey toward a free society under the Rule of Law, coverage that has often resulted in journalists losing their lives, often at the hands of the criminals they were exposing.   A few days ago, we included a video of the work that a group of Ukrainian journalists did to preserve documents showing the massive corruption and stealing that took place under former President Yanukovich.   In 2000 Georgiy Gongadze, Co-Founder of the opposition newspaper “Ukrainska Pravda,” was abducted and murdered, possibly under orders from then-President Leonid Kuchma.   There have been many others who shared the same fate, for which there has almost always been no justice.

Crowdfunding the Ukrainian Armed Forces

As mentioned in previous communications since its rebirth in 2014, when there were only 6,000 combat-ready soldiers available to oppose Russia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been the beneficiary of crowdfunding.   In a response to a request we published in a previous email, recipients of these emails raised approximately $10,000 for a team of female snipers.   Our generosity is only one small example.

Crowdfunding has been an important source of support for the Ukrainian Army since 2014.  During the early fighting in Donbas, Ukrainian soldiers were dying, not because of serious wounds but due to blood loss.  Ulana Suprun, an American doctor of Ukrainian descent came to Ukraine along with her husband, got hold of NATO standard 1st Aid kits and taught Ukrainians how to use them.   Others, including a Ukrainian friend of mine who had retired from a successful career in Moscow, in private equity, provided night vision equipment.   In 2014 and 2015, Ukrainian solders defending the Donetsk Airport were re-supplied by civilians who drove pick-ups through enemy controlled territory.

This excellent article from the New York Times gives other examples, including a group of drone racers providing drones to Ukrainian units, in both the regular Army and territorial defense, that can be armed as well as used for surveillance and artillery spotting.   Often, because this equipment is “dual use,” it can be exported from the United States to Ukraine without an export license.

This article also brings up something that we have discussed in previous emails, the symbiotic relationship between the Armed Forces and civil society.   We mentioned that, today civil society in Ukraine, made up of small groups, operates almost like a shadow government.  The Ukrainian Armed Forces are structured in much the same way, allowing Western instruction in the use of non-commissioned officers to find a fertile field.

5/10 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

Yesterday passed without any significant changes on all fronts, military, information, and economic.  Perhaps the only significant development is that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban remains unscathed by his obdurate resistance and support of Russia.  There are many reasons why the EU needs to have greater flexibility to accommodate dissent without losing actionable capacity.  Failure to embargo Russian energy sales will be another.

INTERNATIONAL

US State Department: Russia could annex the Donbas and hold a sham referendum there.   There is also the possibility of getting the leadership of Russian-occupied Donbas to make a request to the Russian Duma to annex the entire Donbas into Russia. 

The Minister of Economy of Ukraine said that Poland is ready to deliver more than 200,000 tons of fuel a month from its ports and thus alleviate Ukraine's situation after the situation when Russia destroyed the Kremenchuk refinery and many fuel bases with missiles.

Reuters:  Japan announces new sanctions against Russia –. They provide for the freezing of assets of 133 individuals and ban exports of cutting-edge goods to some Russian groups, including scientific research institutions.

The US President said that the «Russian careless and brutal invasion of Ukraine has not achieved its goals», but he is concerned that Putin does not know how to end it.

Speaker of the Bundestag:  Germany supports accelerated accession of Ukraine to the EU.  He hopes that it "will not take decades" and the accession process will be accelerated because "everyone wants it".

Euronews - Head of EU diplomacy:  Defending Ukraine means to defend the international order based on rules. Otherwise, it will be the law of the jungle.  The European Union does not fight against Russia but defends Ukraine.

French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs:  Putin made four strategic mistakes:

1.       believed that Ukraine would fall quickly;

2.       did not believe that Europe would support Ukraine;

3.       considered that there was no unity within NATO;

4.       overrated the strength and capabilities of the Russian army.

The Biden Administration and most of the media believed in both Nos. 1 and 4.   This partly explains the delay by the Biden Administration in approving large-scale weapons deliveries to Ukraine, including the 155 mm howitzers that are only now appearing at the front.

The Washington Post:   Pentagon plans to buy 70-mm APKWS missiles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for $22.6 million, and Switchblade and Puma drones.

RuTube – the Russian state replacement of YouTube was subjected to a powerful cyber-attack; the «site cannot be restored».  Video hosting stopped working at 5 am on May 9. A source close to the Rutube team reported that the site code had been completely deleted - and now it is impossible to recover.  The site currently operates in Ukrainian.

British Defence Intelligence:   Russia's underestimation of Ukrainian resistance and its 'best case scenario' planning have led to demonstrable operational failings, preventing President Putin from announcing significant military success in Ukraine at the 09 May Victory Day parade.  According to intelligence, it is likely, that Russia's invasion plan is highly likely to have been based on the mistaken assumption that it would encounter limited resistance and would be able to encircle and bypass population centres rapidly.  This assumption led Russian forces to attempt to carry out the opening phase of the operation with a light, precise approach intended to achieve a rapid victory with minimal cost. This miscalculation led to unsustainable losses and a subsequent reduction in Russia's operational focus.

Bloomberg:  Democrats are considering providing $40 billion to help Ukraine, exceeding Biden's request.   Legislation is expected to be voted upon by this Thursday.

Euractiv:  Since the end of April 2022, the data center of the Russian search engine Yandex has been disconnected from the electrical grid in Finland.  Since then, Finnish energy companies have refused to sign new electricity contracts with the search engine because of suspicions that it may be spreading war propaganda.

The Pulitzer's Prize awarded Ukrainian journalists with a special award.

French President presented in the Strasbourg and Berlin the idea of a “European political community” that could unite countries seeking to join the European Union, such as Ukraine, or leaving it, such as the United Kingdom.  The President of France called for a more independent Union, especially in terms of energy, and more efficient in its work.

White House:  Joe Biden signed a law on the supply of weapons to Ukraine under Lend-Lease.

Head of the European Commission:  "There is progress, but there is still work to be done": on the oil embargo against Russia.  She plans to convene a meeting with regional players to strengthen cooperation using oil infrastructure.

Center for Counteracting Disinformation:  In Russia, most of their killed soldiers are recorded as missing in order not to pay compensation to relatives.

Victory Day concert broadcast by the Russian government channel used, a photo of American robbers Bonnie and Clyde as a backdrop for patriotic songs.   Not included in the photo was W.D. Jones, alias C.W. Moss who, according to rumors, was around for the purpose of “servicing” Bonnie, as Clyde was unable to “perform.”   Russian propagandists continue their usual habit of making total asses out of themselves. 

Bloomberg:   According to the internal forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, due to sanctions, the rate of decline in GDP will be one and a half times higher than expected.

Serbian President:  Serbia threatened Kosovo because of its desire to join the European Council – Euractiv  ""Our reaction will be much stronger than they think, and will not be just a statement to the media. Believe me, we will show you our teeth.""

Mediazona:  Yesterday we reported that "Lenta.Ru” was hacked.  The site was not hacked it was sabotaged by the editorial staff.  The publication's employees, replaced already published news with an article ""War cannot cover economic failures. Putin must go.""

Demonstrations in Support of Ukraine: Guadalajara, Madrid, Munich

British Defense Secretary:  "The war in Ukraine can become Russian Vietnam and end with the defeat of the Russian army."

Financial Times:  US Defense Companies Face Supply Challenges As Demand For U.S. Weapons Grows.

NATIONAL

Financial Times:  Foreign Minister says the Government of Ukraine plans to end the war after retaking all Ukrainian territory.  According to him, only a military defeat of Russia will allow to unlock the Black Sea ports and resume export.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       The enemy focuses the primary aviation efforts on supporting the actions of units in the eastern operational zone: in Slobozhansk and the Azovstal plant.

·       Sabotage at Ukrainian chemical plants blamed on the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not ruled out.

·       Russia fired multiple rocket-propelled grenades at the border communities of Velyka Pisarivka, Bilopillya, Krasnopillya and Yunakivka in the Sumy region

·       Fighting continues for the settlements of Voevodivka, Toshkivka, Nyzhne in Luhansk region, as well as Kamyanka in Donetsk region.

Ukrainian President:  Today we have taken another step - a very important and not just formal one - on our way to the European Union.   Ukraine has submitted the second part of the answers to a special questionnaire that every country aspiring to be part of the EU must complete.

At the same time, French President Macron predicted that it would take “many decades” for Ukraine to join the EU.   Instead, Macron proposed the creation of a European political community made up of like-minded countries, like the UK, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and perhaps Switzerland, that would exist alongside of the EU but not be part of the EU.   There is likely 1 overarching reason for France to drag its feet on Ukraine’s application for EU membership – money and, at the same time, the prospect of Ukraine winning the war.   France is likely concerned that once Ukraine wins the war, and Ukraine is able to bring its agricultural production back up to its pre-war level that, if in the EU, Ukraine would be the low cost produce and drive French farmers out of business.

Operational-tactical Front East (Shid):  May 9, on the front, the Ukrainian military repulsed 8 attacks by Russian troops.   As a result of the fighting, 250 Russian soldiers were destroyed, as well as 13 tanks, 1 armored personnel carrier, 10 infantry fighting vehicles, 1 self-propelled howitzer, 2 mortars, 6 ATTs and 1 drone.

Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine:   More than 200 Russian sites were attacked by Ukraine’s IT Army this week.  Breweries, online stores, and propaganda channels were hacked and taken down.

State Communication Service:  Russia’s satellite broadcast of the May 9 parade in Moscow, to temporarily occupied Ukrainian regions, was unexpectedly turned off, by Russia. 

Excerpts from conversational intercepts by the Security Service of Ukraine: The mood of Russians on May 9: the parade is "shameful,” there are no PERSPECTIVES.   It's hard to work because of the sanctions.

Parliamentary Ombudsman: Russian soldiers forbade residents of Mariupol to move around the city without three "certificates".  “Three documents that Mariupol residents must receive for “free” movement in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region: a certificate of “filtration”, a pass for movement through the streets of the city and a pass for movement outside Mariupol.”

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Council called on people in the occupied territories not to participate in Russian pseudo-referendums and "elections".

Institute for the Study of War (US).Russian forces are likely continuing to amass troops in the Belgorod region to stop Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv from reaching the Ukrainian-Russian border -

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  In temporarily occupied Izium, from the rubble of a five-storey apartment, which the Russian troops destroyed in the first decade of March, the bodies of 44 civilians were found.

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration: The Luhansk region is now an outpost same as Mariupol, as it prevents the Russian army from penetrating deep into the country.

·       On May 9, the Russians massively shelled all possible exit routes from the region. It was dangerous in Bilohorivka and Shypylivka. Fighting continues for Voievodivka, Toshkivka and Nyzhnie

·       Bilohorivka in the Lugansk region is almost free from Russian troops

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

Social networks: Peter Dik's steam powered flour mill built in the 1890’s in New York, Donetsk was set on fire by Russian shelling.

Counselor of the Mayor of Mariupol:   Azovstal. No less than 100 civilians remain in shelters except for the military. However, heavy artillery and aircraft continued shelling the factory all day. Attempts to storm the ground continue to fail.

«Azov» in the past 24 hours at «Azovstal», Russia has committed 34 aircraft, including eight sorties of strategic bombers. Also, the Russian ship and land artillery, MLR, UR-77, tanks, etc., do not stop working. The Russian troops continue to storm daily with the support of armored personnel carriers.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Odesa was hit by seven rockets launched from TU-22 strategic bombers.  "Suspilne Odesa" reports that a shopping center is on fire in the city.   As a result, 1 person died, 5 wounded were taken to hospital. 

Bolhrad District Military Administration:  In the Artsyz, Teplytsia, and Pavlivka communities in the Odesa region, law enforcement and special services carry out planned counter-sabotage measures

Mayor:  Russians are constantly shelling Mykolaiv with Multiple Launch Rocket Systems from Kherson

Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration:  Russian’s shelled the Zelenodolsk reservoir with cluster shells.  Fishermen were urged not to go out on the water and not to use fishing nets.

·       The Russians shelled the village of Annivka in the Kriviy Rih district; no one was hurt, but the village is without electricity.

·       Russians shelled the village of Volnogorsk. No information on extent of damage.

·       In the morning, the enemy again shelled the vicinity of the Velyka Kostromka in the Kryvyi Rih district. One house was partially damaged, but no one was injured

Ministry of Defense: Russian forces are putting their officers in abandoned apartments in Kherson.  Condominium heads are required to give the Russians lists of empty apartments.  The plan is to provide accommodation for Russian military personnel and intelligence officers.

Ministry of Internal Affairs:  Ex-People's Deputy David Zhvania died today from artillery fire near the Russian checkpoint near the village of Novopokrovka, Zaporozhie region.

Zaporozhie Regional Military Administration:  Yesterday, the Russian troops shelled the communities of Huliaipole, Huliaipilske, Orikhiv, Krasne, Malynivka, Zaliznychne, Kamianske, Stepne, Bilohiria, Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia region). Residential buildings were damaged.  One person died, and one was wounded.

·       In Zaporizhzhia under Russian occupation, the partisan movement continues to develop.  According to the Zaporizhzhia Defense Forces, in one of the occupied cities of the Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian partisans wounded 45 Russian soldiers and destroyed 5.

REST OF UKRAINE

Sumy Regional Military Administration: reported shelling of border areas by Russian troops.

Ukrainian Minister of Culture:  Russian troops hit a Jewish cemetery in Hlukhiv, Sumy region; mostly victims of the Russian 1918 pogrom.

Kyiv Regional Military Administration:  The General Secretary of the Council of Europe visited Kyiv region, Borodyanka and Irpin. 

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news