A quick note from Kyiv. Blessed silence!
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There have been no rockets this evening. I haven't heard bombing since this morning.
The piece by Robert Homans that I sent out this morning indicated that the Russians had pretty much ground to a halt. Their advances were stymied, and they were giving as much ground back as they were winning.
Troop morale is terrible. My friend Gary in London says that the soldiers from that 40 mile column that has been stalled for a week are now sleeping in the woods off by the side of the road because they see their armor as a deathtrap. They don't want to be in it when it explodes.
The attacks that were supposed to happen simply haven't happened. A general officer and a couple of battalion commanders have been killed. It is unusual in war for high-ranking officers to die. In Vietnam it could well have been fragging by disenchanted troops.
I'm feeling pretty prescient. I blogged at the very beginning of the war that the countryside would be too marshy for armor to operate, and the roads were inadequate. I recently gave credit to General Mud for stymieing the advance. That's probably as good of a single sentence analysis is you will get. I also offered a couple of English-language sayings – pogovorkas in Russian. First: Colin Powell's Pottery Barn adage: "you broke it, you bought it." This is Putin's mess top to bottom. Second, and ancient Chinese proverb: "He who rides on the back of a tiger has a hard time getting off." There is no graceful way for Putin to end this.
I learned a new Russian word this week. Pizdets. It used to be that there were words in English language that would make a lady blush, but for 20 years this has not been the case. I used that word and both my wife and my mother-in-law turned and looked at me in shock. I love a society that is still capable of being shocked. The word does not translate exactly, but it's pretty equivalent to World War II's SNAFU and the Vietnam War's FUBAR. Yes, the core verb is the same.
Reading the tea leaves, Putin said yesterday that it was okay with him if Zelensky remained in office. Of course he lies, but why would he offer this one? The price of gold fell precipitously today, at though it later rallied. That could indicate a lessening of fear. But the delightful silence outside my house is the best portent of all. They are not conquering Kyiv tonight.
That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong man broke the wheelbarrow today hauling the last of the sandbags, the strong women are enervated by a week of worry, and the children ready to go back to playing with friends just about any time now.
ty for ur reports.
May the silence last for a long time. I hope that the troops in the convoy refuse to advance to be killed. That the Russians realise that they are bogged down in an unwinnable war and seek for some face saving way out. Perhaps some sort of deal capitalising on the limited successes Russia has had in the South.
Do you have any idea what is happening to the East of Kyiv? The BBC has maps which shows another advance approaching from the East even as the Northern convoy is stalled.