A day of preparation. Homans daily report. Matt Taibbi is my man

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It appears the Russians are coming to Kyiv. We spent the day in preparation. Got a bunch of bottles out of the attic and filled them with water anticipating that our electricity, and hence our pump will go out.

Next Oksana told me that Roman was going into the city to go shopping. I knew him only by his massive car – a Lincoln navigator. We are now friends. Our local supermarket had a line of about 100 people waiting to get in. Roman knew someplace better – out at the city limits, on the way to Brovary.  I was game, if a bit nervous.

There were people on the streets, all of them occupied with serious business. We went to the Novus grocery store and bought what we could. I filled a backpack and a Trader Joe's shopping bag.  Then we went to the big outdoor market – the place I usually shop. There were only a few things open, but enough for us. Roman bought 90 eggs and I 60, as well as some lemons and pears which we won't be able to get for a while in all likelihood. On the way home we stopped at his mother's to drop off 30 eggs.

Encouraged that things were open, I got on my bicycle and went to my favorite shopping area 2 miles to the east. I got 10 pounds of meat, some mandarin oranges and some green onions, then stopped at a liquor store and waited in line while the locals filled up on alcohol. When it was my turn I ask for milk – they didn't have any – but bought 2 pounds of butter, 4 pounds of sugar, 5 pounds of cheese and a couple of things of condensed milk.

Returning home, Eddie and I pumped up the wheel of the wheelbarrow and went looking for sand. The salt for our water softening system comes in 45 pound bags. I hate to throw them away – they're pretty good. We have about 20. I took the wheelbarrow looking for a construction site. The third one we came to has the house already built and quite a bit of sand left over. I filled four bags, each one of which I was barely able to lift into the wheelbarrow, bringing them back in two trips.

While we were there we discovered that an old style hand pump still produces water. Nice to know – we can use it if need be.

This was men's day in the kitchen. The women were banished and I cooked dinner. I hadn't had much time, but the lentils and pork went over pretty well. I could not keep Grandma out altogether, and was thankful for the cabbage salad she made.

We continue to hear rockets, more than yesterday, but there are still no airplanes overhead. That said, I encourage you to read Matt Taibbi, who continues to have the most thorough and balance reporting in my opinion.

Robert Homans also has some excellent input – here's what he has to say today.

Ukraine – March 4th Sitrep
The Bells of Lowell House
Another Possible Sanction
Update From Kyiv
By: Robert Homans

The Bells of Lowell House at Harvard – On February 24th, the day the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the bells of Lowell House at Harvard College rang out with the National Anthem of Ukraine.   The bellringer is the son of George Kent, until recently the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the European and Eurasian Bureau of the U.S.  Department of State.   George was one of the U.S. Government officials who testified before the House Intelligence Committee during Pres. Trump’s first impeachment.

George’s son is a Harvard College Undergraduate and a Social Studies concentrator.    Apparently, this is his first bellringing gig.   Since George’s son is not an authorized bellringer, he had to sneak into the belltower and play the National Anthem of Ukraine by ear.

The bells are Russian, and the playing of the National Anthem of Ukraine is a poke in the eye at someone whom I consider to be one of the more odious figures among Putin’s coterie, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate.  

More Information about the bells - According to Wikipedia, “for three-quarters of a century, Lowell House's bell tower was home to a set of authentic Russian zvon, one of the few complete sets of pre-revolutionary Russian bells surviving anywhere. The eighteen bells were bought in Russia around 1930 by Thomas Whittemore with the financial aid of millionaire Chicago plumbing magnate Charles R. Crane‍—‌who reportedly paid merely their value as scrap‍—‌just as they were to be melted down by Soviet authorities. Crane donated them to Harvard in 1930 just as plans for Lowell House were nearing completion.”

“Like those seen today on Dunster and Eliot Houses, Lowell's tower was originally meant to be a clock-tower‍—‌Lowell's in particular is reminiscent of Philadelphia's Independence Hall, although it was actually modeled after a Dutch church. With word of Crane's gift, the planned tower was changed to the blue-capped bell tower seen today. (One of the eighteen bells did not harmonize with the others, so was hung in the Harvard Business School's Baker Library.)”

“The bells originally hung in Moscow's Danilov Monastery.  Danilov Monastery is now the seat of the aforementioned Kirill, the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate,  and were installed with the help, at first, of musician Konstantin Konstantinovich Saradzhev, and Vsevolod Andronoff, a former resident of the monastery. They range in weight from 22 pounds (10 kg) to 26,700 pounds (12,100 kg) and known to Lowell House students as "Mother Earth"). The bells are consecrated and are of great significance to the Russian Orthodox Church, in the liturgy of which bells play an important role.”

“At Lowell, the bells were usually rung on Sundays at 1pm by resident Klappermeisters. After the annual Harvard–Yale football game, Harvard's score would sometimes be proclaimed on the "Mother Earth," with Yale's score tolled on the "Bell of Pestilence, Famine, and Despair." “

“With the reopening of the Danilov Monastery, it was suggested that the bells be returned to their original home. At Harvard's June 2008 Commencement, they sounded for the last time at Lowell House, after which the bell tower was partially dismantled so that the bells could be withdrawn. In their places were hung newly cast near-replica bells obtained with the financial assistance of the Link of Times Foundation, created by Russian industrialist Viktor Vekselberg.” Vekselberg is now under U.S.  sanctions.”

“The now-departed bells may still be heard on the Lowell House Virtual Bell Tower. The bells sound Sunday afternoons during term time, and at special events such as commencement.”

George Kent’s son has future as a bellringer.

Another Possible Sanction – If it is implemented, this sanction would affect all Russians who own an Apple or Android smartphone.   

Recently, Apple Computer has curtailed the sale of its hardware in Russia, including its smartphones, computers, and other devices.   Ukraine has requested that Apple stop updating the operating systems that run these devices.   I believe the same request has been made to Google, regarding the Android operating system.

Apple issues licenses for their operating system to retailers, who then assign the use of the operating system to buyers.   Therefore, if Apple decides to stop operating system updates to Russians who use Apple devices or, in the case of Google, devices running on the Android operating system, they can do so without affecting users in any other country other than Russia.  

If operating systems aren’t updated, they eventually become unusable.   This applies especially to older versions of smartphones, laptops, and other devices.   Therefore, Russians who use devices they purchased 3 years ago, or more, are the most vulnerable.

American citizens should consider contacting their Congressional representatives and ask them to contact Apple and Google requesting that they take this action.  Stay tuned.

Update From my Kontact in Kyiv (commentary from me in bold face) –

Critical Role of Information - Information has played a significant part in this war.  Prior to its onset President Biden abandoned western tactics of wait and see in the information war.  Biden wrong footed Russia by revealing intelligence of Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders.  Russia sought to retake the initiative by whining about imminent Ukrainian NATO ascension.  This was a patent fabrication and the more Russia faced clear messages that Ukraine was not on any track to NATO the more egregious became the story of NATO’s and America’s threat to Russian security. 

Russia failed to set the scene prior to initiating its attack.  It also acquiesced to Chinese concerns about bad publicity during the Olympics and postponed invading until after their conclusion.  As a result of waiting Russian heavy equipment entered Ukraine when rural roads had turned from passable frozen passages into mud.  An excellent report on the effects of mud on the movement of heavy military vehicles can be found here.  The famous Black Soil of Ukraine holds water, making it an even bigger problem for Russian military vehicles.  Russian heavy equipment could not move swiftly and now is fighting the terrain and defenders.  This is one reason why the 40-mile-long Russian convoy isn’t moving.  If vehicles try to go around disabled vehicles ahead of them, they get stuck in the mud.   However, in Southern Ukraine, which is drier, the invaders don’t face this problem which may be one reason they are more successful there.

Pres. Zelenskyy’s Pre-War Mistakes - Ukraine’s government was no better than Russian one as it minimized the possibility of an invasion.  Instead of using the time that Biden bought Ukraine, Zelensky focused on his approval ratings, which at the beginning of the invasion was just above 20%.  In one week, Zelenskyy’s approval ratings soared to over 90%.  Ten days prior to the invasion Zelenskyy offered Ukrainians over sixty a free smartphone if they vaccinated.  Concurrently he revived his campaign pledge of managing policy through electronically conducted referendums, thereby bypassing parliament.   Up until almost the start of the Russian invasion, Zelenskyy kept telling Ukrainians that “everything will be OK, that the May Holidays will be coming soon, and we can all go outside and have barbecues.”   This “happy talk” may have contributing to the delay in people deciding to evacuate Kyiv, causing massive traffic jams.

Fortunately for Ukraine Zelensky’s experience as an actor metamorphosed from a minus into a plus within hours of the invasion.  Also, Ukraine’s civic freedom meant that its communication horizon was full of competing independent sources.  Today Zelensky has done a magnificent job of communicating Ukraine’s resolve and courage to the rest of the world and to Ukrainians. 

A Well-Informed Population - Ukrainians are very well informed about events.  I use three Telegram channels, two Viber channels, about six Whats App groups, plus the internet to follow whats going on.  Ukraine’s television channels have stopped competing with each other to deliver the news and instead jointly run a 24-hour news broadcast.  The channels realized that this was hard for some people and two days ago three of the twelve national channels returned to regular broadcasting.  There is so much fresh information available in Ukraine regarding events that the only experience that comes close is sitting at a bond trader’s desk with six independent screens and lots of market volatility.

The information war has more depth than this.  Zelensky took control of communicating Ukraine’s position.  As a result, he relinquished trying to manage everything else that is happening in the country.  Ukraine’s military is running the war effort.  Locally elected officials and volunteers are running civil defense and acting within the military chain of command.  Volunteers are providing support – food, medical supplies, and services to the military and to those like pensioners and invalids that cannot take care of themselves.  Ukraine, not the military is at war with the invaders.

Certainly, Zelenskyy’s experience as an actor has been a major factor in his transformation an unpopular and controversial president to an effective wartime leader.   It is also possible that Pres. Zelenskyy has, very wisely in my opinion, sidelined some advisors who, prior to the start of the war, were controversial and mis-trusted by large portion of Ukraine’s population.   This may include Andriy Yermak Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff, and several informal advisers who came from Zelenskyy’s production company, trusted by Zellenskyy but who have no experience in running a country, much less than running a war.

Situation in Russia - The situation in Russia is different.  As of yesterday, there is no independent media left in Russia, and there are no independent opinions other than official opinions.  The Russian government is telling its people that there is no war in Ukraine, only a special operation to extend the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk pseudo republics to the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.  Russia claims that the widespread destruction of civilian housing and infrastructure is being done by the Ukrainian Military.  Russia claims that they have lost five hundred soldiers.  Individuals with opposite views are being arrested and given automatic 15-day sentences.

As of yesterday, 8,000 Russians were arrested at peace demonstrations.  Total control of domestic information is not working, primarily because the internet and mobile communication, including Voice over Internet Protocol systems such as What’s App, Viber, Telegram, Signal and others that allow direct uncensored international communication.  Ukraine is using this to its advantage, partly based on valuable experience using these types of apps during the 2013/2014 Revolution of Dignity, where they were used for food delivery, transporting wounded protestors and delivery of old tires to shore up  barriers.. 

All captured Prisoners of War are asked to call home and explain to their mothers and relatives where they are and what they are doing.  The mothers, wives and or other relatives are then told they can come to take their loved ones home.  This creates a confrontation between Russians and their government.

This is a clever tactic, as Russian soldiers who came to Ukraine had to surrender their phones and identification to the Russian government prior to crossing the border.  Once the information about the relatives’ participation in an invasion is known, it is shared further across Russia.  Ukrainians with relatives in Russia are advised to tell their relatives the truth about the invasion.  These Ukrainian innovations and the open sharing of information with western media is undermining Russian state media control and censorship.

Ukraine’s Government Taking the Information Offensive - Ukraine’s government has gone further than the west in fighting Russia’s information machine.  Currently Ukrainian government sponsored hackers are attacking Russian government sites and military sites.  The Ukrainian government is actively recruiting hackers globally for this purpose.

One way to measure the effectiveness of Ukraine’s communication efforts is the support it has generated.  In eight days of war Ukraine has received $15B in defense, economic and humanitarian support according to head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Kyrylo Shevchenko. "According to our estimates, the total international financial, technical and humanitarian support has reached more than $15B, of which more than $5B came directly to the budget," Shevchenko added.

Like the transformation of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, since the Revolution of Dignity the NBU has transformed itself, from nothing more than an ATM for former President Yanukovich to a well-respected central bank.   As described in this article in Bloomberg/Businessweek, the NBU operates several “Go Fund Me” sites, where people make contributions directly to Ukraine’s military.   This comes directly out of the experience gained in the days after the end of the 2013/14 Revolution of Dignity, when Ukraine only had 6,000 combat-ready soldiers, their trucks didn’t have batteries, and there were few first-aid kits needed to treat battlefield injuries.   During this period, crowdfunding played a critical role in helping the Ukrainian Armed Forces reconstitute their fighting capabilities and, in the Summer of 2014, re-take much of Donetsk and Luhansk from Russian proxies.

In comparison Russia has received economic sanctions which may have wiped out more than $50 billion of value of private enterprise and frozen more than $300 billion of Central Bank Reserves held offshore.  Neither Ukraine’s benefit and Russia’s loss is worth the lives of people.

Military Situation – Yesterday, March 3rd, was a difficult day for Ukraine as Russia has changed tactics again.  Russia, which has now committed 95% of the forces amassed, no longer tries to fight the Ukrainian army and self-defense forces.  After losing every confrontation, now the Russians upon encountering Ukrainian forces immediately retreat.  Then they try other directions to take civilian centers or infrastructure.  Once inside a civilian area they start looking for food, fuel and loot.  Given the spread of the invasion Ukrainian ground forces are selectively chasing Russian columns.

Yesterday, Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky, who was the deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of Russia's Central Military District.   According to reports, he was killed by a sniper.  The question is, from which side?   Based on all the reports I’ve been seeing, of surrender of entire units and the reluctance of Russian soldiers to fight in Ukraine, I wouldn’t be at all surprised that Gen.  Sukhovetsky was killed by one of his own men.   This was quite common during the War in Vietnam, mostly junior officers leading platoons being killed by their own men.  The practice was called “fragging,” because it was often carried out by hand grenades.

Once the Russians encounter situations where all directions for further advance are closed, as is the case with Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Kyiv they stop altogether.  From a distance of 15 to 25 kilometers they begin shelling Ukrainian forces and civilians.  In addition to artillery and ballistic missiles the shelling is supported by cruise missiles and aerial bombardment. 

The tactic of indiscriminate shelling has been employed against Kharkiv and Chernihiv starting three days ago, and against Kyiv as of yesterday.  In the case of Kyiv and Kharkiv given that there are outlying bedroom communities these are the first to suffer and continue to suffer.  This is the same tactic the Russians used in Chechnya and Syria.  It was a failed tactic in Chechnya because the Chechen nation opposed the Russian invasion.  It appears to me that Russia suffers defeat when it tries to terrorize a nation into submission.

The difference between Kharkiv and Kyiv is that the air defense in Kyiv is much better so fewer cruise missiles and practically no aerial bombardment. 

Russia still has no aerial advantage.  According to an article that I read Russia failed to take out Ukraine’s air defense in the first day and doesn’t wish to risk its planes.  This is not the case with the ground forces which are being cut into pieces on a daily basis.  As a result, Ukraine’s smaller aerial forces remain effective.

The worst situation for Ukraine is in the south.  Russia has captured Kherson and now has full control of the pumping stations that could supply Crimea with water.  However, as is usual with the Russians, prior to putting water into the canal it needs to be fixed.  The Russians didn’t think of this.  To get water into Crimea will require at least three to four months of intensive repairs.  Without repairs the water will leak out of the canal before reaching Crimea.

There are reports that the Russians are attempting to turn Kherson into the 3rd “People’s Republic,” after Donetsk and Luhansk, and then asking the Russian Duma to recognize it as an independent State.

Mariupol and Mykolaiv are under bombardment but there is no sign of surrender or capture.  Odesa was expecting an amphibious assault yesterday, but it did not occur.  One report stated that the reason that the amphibious assault didn’t occur was because of mutinies by Russian marines who were scheduled to make the assault.  Instead, the Russians attacked six merchant ships one of which sank.  Yesterday the Ukrainian navy sank one of its destroyers which was under repair to prevent it falling into Russian hands.

The most critical situation for all of Ukraine, the EU and Russia itself is the Russian attack on the Enerhodar Atomic energy generator.  This is the largest nuclear generator in Europe with eight functioning reactors and is twice the size of Chernobyl.  The Russians shot at it with artillery and rockets.  Had one of the reactors been hit the consequences are incalculable.  Currently the Russians control an administrative building on site and Ukraine controls and runs the reactors.

The invaders have bombed Horlivka and Lisichansk in the Donbas but other than creating refugees have not taken territory.

The Ukrainian forces have retaken parts of the border in Sumy oblast.

One last thought.  Zelensky more and more reminds me of Churchill.  A brilliant leader in war a mediocre populist at peace.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense.  Soviet and Russian military losses.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong men's work on the exercycle is being put to good use, the good looking women are appropriately nervous and happy for consolation, and the kids are watching Dumbo on TV. We'll have a holiday until the lights go out.

Graham