A dam war crime. The genetics of complaint.

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The Russians did the unthinkable. They blew up the dam at Nova Kakhovka, flooding low-lying ground from Kherson down to the Black Sea.

Unthinkable and stupid. The left (East) bank of the Dnipro is lower than the right. Most of the land that they flooded is land they control. The dam provided drinking and agricultural water for much of the part they conquered, as well as Crimea.

Even though the Russians filled the dam to capacity, up to 17 m above sea level, before blowing it, my guess is that death will be limited.  Destruction is another matter. The biggest downstream city is Hola Prystan, on the left bank, at about 2 meters, a difference of 15 meters, 48 feet. 

It will take about three days for the dam to largely empty.  That 48 feet of water will have time to spread out over an area larger than the surface of the reservoir itself.  Much of it will flow in short order to the Black Sea.  My take would be that flooding in Hola Prystan will probably not reach the second story.  A lot of damage, but not a vast number of drownings.  The Russians will order the city to be evacuated, but I would bet that a sizeable number of the people who have steadily resisted leaving will continue to do so.

The damage to agriculture cannot be easily remedied.  It will be a disaster this year, and perhaps for years to come.  Farmers depend on irrigation, and there is no other source than the Dnieper.  It may be possible to pump water up from the river to fill some of the canals, especially on the Ukrainian-held right bank.

The Russians controlled the dam from the early days of the war. They apparently planted the explosives last year.  I take comfort in the fact that they could not repeat this outrage at the other dams upstream, at least not in the same way, because they have never controlled them.

Kyiv sits right below one of the four remaining dams. I did the measurements before we bought the house. We are about 10 feet below the mean water level behind the Kyiv dam, behind a large dike, and about ten miles away. I don't think we would be in danger. Moreover, I conclude that the only way the Russians could blow the dam would be with tactical nuclear weapons. They do not have missiles capable of delivering enough T N T.

Blowing the dam on the Kakhovka Reservoir certainly changes the tactical situation for Ukraine. It would be impossible to drive armored vehicles across what is left of it. On the other hand, it makes the Dnipro River considerably narrower. It may be easier to bridge over sections that were previously underwater.

There is nothing to be preserved at the bottom of the reservoir. I could imagine Ukraine using conventional explosives to raise a berm or dike to blow earth into place to temporarily close the breach in the dam, shutting off the water flow for a few days.  The natural river bottom downstream from the dam would certainly not be solid enough to support tanks, but I can conceive that it could be made adequate by putting down the kind of metal strips that have been used since World War II for temporary airstrips.

I just returned from taking the two girls to kindergarten by bicycle. Marianna on the shotgun seat, Zoriana on her own bicycle. Zoriana tells Oksana that she doesn't want to go. She doesn't bother telling me – she knows the answer. Instead, she dawdles endlessly getting dressed. She complains that she does not get along well with the other kids. I do not see it. The ladies who run the place tell me the kids are doing fine. I attribute it to her nature to complain about everything. Which, as Oksana observed yesterday, is hereditary. Grandma does it, Oksana recognizes it in herself, and the kids do it. Probably reinforced by the fact that grandma is always complaining to everybody, including them.  I have a defense.  I don't understand her Russian well anyhow, and my understanding becomes much worse when it comes to complaints.

Responding to another poster on Substack, I noted that human beings are placental mammals. However, our ladies are the only ones with either placenta or mammaries. We men are tricked out much the same as male lizards and turtles. Nature has ordained that women, like all female mammals, bear and nurse the young. And, as in most female mammals, it is both a handicap and a blessing. They are saddled with the business of raising offspring, while the males fill other roles such as hunting and defending the tribe. We are throwing away a lot when we discard the notion that there are differences between the sexes.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong man seems to be getting over the gastritis. I have eliminated coffee, tea, chocolate and especially milk from my diet. I am guessing that milk is the most significant culprit. After it has been gone for a month or so I'll readmit things to my diet one by one and watch what happens.

Graham